First the good news on Ivan Nova. Believe it or not, he’s taken a big leap forward this year with some of his peripherals. His 20.5 K% this season is a big improvement over last year’s 13.9% rate. His Walk rate is down from 8.1% in 2011 to 7.1% this year. Looking at those numbers, you’d think that the slider he added last year was having the desired effect and that he was a young pitcher having a breakout year.
So what gives? He’s getting hit harder than he has ever been in the past. The biggest culprit has been his FB which has been getting destroyed. His BABIP is up a whopping 50 points over last year. If his batted ball stats were constant, that would suggest bad luck. But his LD% is up, GB% is down, and HR/9 has more than doubled. His strand rate is virtually identical from last year. This isn’t bad luck, he’s getting clobbered out there. But you knew that already.
Here’s your lineups from LoHud:
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