Considering the news on Gardner’s soar elbow yesterday, prepare yourself for bad news today. The Yankees will have a better idea of the significance to the left fielder’s third set back in recovery this season. With Gardner out indefinitely, the team has already started exploring the outfield trade market. Right now, the big name connected with the Yankees is Shane Victorino, a 3-4 month rental from the Phillies. Cashman’s history of trading for rentals in recent years provides a short-sighted explanation for this trade, but I find the chances of trading for Justin Upton much larger.
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The problem with trading for Shane Victorino is the cost. Although the outfielder is in the middle of his worst offensive year yet, it will still require a top prospect or large package to pry him away from Philadelphia. The Phillies have the option to keep Victorino on the team to attempt an improbable comeback, but also to keep him until the end of the year to earn draft pick compensation once he hits free agency. Trading the outfielder now would only make sense if they could obtain a package around the talent of a first round pick, assuming the Phillies would be willing to offer him a $12M-$13M contract after this season. This doesn’t seem too ridiculous considering his strong 2009 and 2011 seasons, as well as his hot streak since the allstar break where he’s currently 6 for 16 with a double and three triples. If the Yankees ended up trading this type of talent, they would not see the same draft compensation under the new CBA. With Victorino hitting .245/.311/.379 in 2012, the price would be ridiculous for a guy having an awful season.
With a 2014 budget ahead of the team, it makes more sense to trade prospects for a cheap young player that would be a long term solution. Aside from losing Brett Gardner this year, the Yankees will lose Nick Swisher to free agency after this season. The 24 year old Justin Upton is under contract until after the 2015 season, at a team friendly price, and with the upside of a yearly MVP candidate. There is a need on the team for a long term outfielder, for a young bat, for speed, and for budget relief. Justin Upton is a solution, but the cost is high.
The Diamondbacks are looking for three major league ready players of which they’re asking for a third baseman, shortstop or top-of-the-rotation starter. As far as starters go, the Yankees could certainly contribute Ivan Nova, David Phelps, and/or Manny Banuelos in a package, along with some top-50 positional prospects in Gary Sanchez and/or Mason Williams. A deal like this would take a big bite out of the Yankee farm system.
The Diamondbacks are close to contention however, and it would likely take a more major league ready position player to get a deal done. But there is still some reason to think the teams matchup on players since Diamondbacks’ GM Kevin Towers is very familiar with the Yankees farm system, as he spent 2010 as a special assignment scout for the team. With that said, it’s not out of question to expect a third team in a deal, similar to what happened during the Curtis Granderson trade.
In the rumor mill, the Yankees have checked in on Upton, but they also haven’t. The mixed messages sounds more like a sneaky Cashman cover up, than disinterest. The final hurdle in any deal is Justin Upton’s no-trade clause, which includes the Yankees, and some have thus called any deal a longshot. To include a team like the Yankees and Red Sox on a no-trade clause is more often an attempt to gain a voice in negotiations. The Yankees will answer to Upton’s demands if they are serious enough to offer the haul necessary to obtain him. When it comes down to the questions of getting a deal done, be it teams matching up or a no-trade clause, if Brian Cashman wants Justin Upton, he’ll get Justin Upton.
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22 Responses to Trading For Justin Upton
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TIQ IQ
I wouldn’t trade Nova for Upton.
I’m not prospect hugging or anything, i’m willing to give up a TON to get upton i’d trade any 3 out of Sanchez, Banuelos, Betances, Williams, Hughes, Gardner, Swisher, Phelps. I understand Upton is immensely valuable, I just feel similarly about Nova
Nova however is cost controlled for 5 more years and is already a proven mid rotation arm with upside who has continued to improve continuously.
I really disagree with any assessment that values Nova as a trade chip, I see him as a player we need to cling onto tightly.
FINALLY, an article with a real solution to the short AND long term. Great read. I think Cash needs to call up Towers, and work this thing out now. However, i do NOT agree with sending Nova; i would much rather see Hughes go.
I’m sure Cashman will make some offer involving Banuelos and Mason Williams. A legitimate offer that the D’Backs will have to consider, but I think in the end some team will either go above and beyond where we are willing to go, or the D’Backs don’t get blown away and end up keeping him.
I dont think the Yankees have the pieces to make this deal happen. Not at all. The DBacks have lots of pitching and signed Miguel Montero to a long term contract. They want major league ready players they said, most likely 2 major leaguers and upper high end talented players. Yankees cant give more than what other teams can. Diamondbacks also want SS or 3rd base prospects. Yankees dont have any of those. Nunez, Culver, and DBJ arent nearly has highly touted as some of the other teams players who are connected to him. Look elsewhere
I agree mostly with what you said, and they can certainly get a better 3B than the yanks can offer(DBJ is super far and not having a great year)
I haven’t heard of any SS being linked to Upton with more upside than Nunez. They aren’t getting profar, lindor, machado, sano, bogaerts , franklin or segura(some of these guys aren’t even sticking at SS)
I think Nunez can be a legit piece in a trade for Upton. They’d still have to give up 2 high level prospects along with Nunez (Banuelos, Sanchez, Williams and to a lesser extent Campos, Austin, Phelps)but let’s not underestimate Nunez value. Teams view him as an above average SS with years of control left, that’s an crazy valuable asset. Teams have been trying to pry Nunez from Cashman for a while now, and this could be his ultimate opportunity to use him as a key chip
Blue Jays iv heard could dangle adenis hechavarria who is probably going to be better than Nunez both offensively and defensively. I just dont see how the Yankees can get him. What package of MLB ready and major league ready prospects can the Yankees offer that isnt laden with catching and pitching prospects?
Oh really? Which teams? What exactly has Nunez done to be viewed as an “above average SS”? That’s just nuts and I really doubt he’d be viewed that way by a teams shopping assets like Justin Upton.
There are ways, especially if Upton is their guy. For instance, the Padres have Chase Headley available, who the Dbacks really like. The Yankees could send those lower level prospects to the Padres, while they send Headley to the Dbacks. It’ll obviously take more, but it’s not too ridiculous. Curtis Granderson was their guy, and even though they didn’t have the right pieces, they were able to work out a three team trade with the Dbacks and Tigers.
yankees are not including nova in any trade…not going to happen,the last thing cashman is going to do is trade a valuable young pitcher that can only get better & is under there control financially for a few years for an overated outfielder with an ego!!
Why would you fill one hole while creating three or four?
No way I trade our best lefty rotation hope (Man-Ban), along with the future catcher-clean-up hitter (Sanchez), an established mid-rotation pitcher (Nova) and a promising back-end pitcher (Phelps) to get one guy that another team is for some unknown reason putting on the market. Awful idea.
I can see building a package around either Williams OR Austin– both guys who could be nearly as valuable as Upton, and for less dollars and more years. Then add to that with maybe Adams, maybe Jose Ramirez. That’s already alot. If Arizona can do better, so be it. Yanks cannot afford to give up three or four of their best half dozen youngsters. Young talent will be hard to come by with new CBA.
By far the best comment, because It really doesn’t make any sense to trade Nova. I can see antiyankees saying we can’t get him but if we want him we can get him very easy but we are contenders not sellers so we need a lot of good players every year.
Other teams like Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, etc, etc. etc can trade players having a good year but we are not giving away Nova and Phelps plus some other minor league players for him, if that’s the case they can look for a trade with “every year middle to low position in the standings” teams.
If Cashman wants him, he can get him but he’ll need to get very smart to cover the pitching situation because thinking in the playoffs you’ll need CC, Kuroda, Nova(or a player involved in a trade where he needs to get smart) and one from Pettitte or Hughes.
My gut tells me that AZ is just gauging market interest/value in Upton in case someone would blow them away with a great offer. He’s under a reasonable, long term deal and he’s the type of player you look to build around. I think it would take a package better than what Atlanta gave to Texas for Teixera to pry Upton loose and I can’t see Cashman offering that. I doubt that Upton gets traded at all but if he does, I doubt that the Yankees are the team that gets him.
Victorino seems more likely if the Phillies were to decide that it was too much of a gamble to offer Victorino arbitration. Cashman hasn’t been willing to gamble much that players wouldn’t accept so maybe Wade would be uncomfortable doing that too. I also think it’s entirely possible that the Yankees don’t acquire anyone. I know it wasn’t the plan to play Ibanez and Jones this much in the outfield but I don’t agree with the suggestion that they will break down from overuse. Ibanez was a starter in the OF just last year. It would be nice to find Granderson more days off or half days off but with the lead they have, I don’t see the occasional start for Dwayne Wise in CF being a big issue.
THe last player like Upton to become available, when the team seemingly had no reason in the world to want to get rid of him, was Ubaldo. The Rockies traded him because they knew what they were getting rid of. This is a very similar situation, in that the D-Backs seem to have no reason in the world to get rid of Upton. I think they know what they are getting rid of. I would stay away from him.
Yeah, the Yankees don’t have that immediate superstar to trade for Upton. The thing is, what team is going to give up a potential superstar for a guy who isn’t hitting for power this year and his team (which is either close to or in contention) is trying to give him up.
I mean, if the Yankees could give them a package of Williams/Nunez/Phelps/Joseph then I’d be all over it but I don’t think that has enough of a can’t miss star in it.
Just looked at his stats and with shoulder questions and attitude concerns I’m not trading any of my top prospects for this guy who would yourself leverage to renegotiate his contract if traded to Yanks to try and get paid closer to a Matt kemp. He is 276 avg hitter and even though he is only 24 you need to be concerned with shoulder and fact that why would a team trade him when he is cost controlled. I’ll prospect hug this move away.
I don’t think it’s fair to question his attitude, and then allude to him not being a Matt Kemp type player. There was a point a couple years ago that Kemp was thought to be on the block, and a lot of people said that he had questionable work ethic. The same thing has been said about way too many players that end up having monster seasons. The truth is, Upton is 24 years old and on the cusp of entering his prime years. When/if he figures it out, he’s got the potential to be the next Matt Kemp. That said, there’s certainly a merit to both sides of the debate when you consider the type of prospects it will cost.
Just wish the fantasy gms on this site would stop imagining trades and gutting the farm when in fact they have no true idea how the Yanks perceive that prospect they are looking trade. Many on this site are willing to trade our best left handed pitching prospect in banuelos, our best outfielder prospect in mason Williams, our best pure hitter whom happens play elite position in Gary Sanchez, and our only real ss replacement at this time in Eduardo Nunez whom despite his value decreasing if you left him at ss he can possibly give you 30-45 sb with 240 avg and 10 hr a yr while flashing plus arm. Now why would you trade all that plus a David phelps whom has talent to be back end starter today for a guy in Justin upton who quite honestly puts up nick swisher stats at best with more sb which is around 15 to 20 sb a year? Don’t you understand it is easier to replace corner outfield production than any other spot on team? Wake up and stop playing gm and trust the cash with the moves that make sense now and for the future. Also consider why would Arizona look to trade a 24 yo talent such as uptons? Injury concerns? Attitude concerns?
I completely agree. The Ibanez/Jones platoon is doing well. The only issue is giving them a little more rest in preparation for the play-offs. There are 72 games left. What does a little rest mean? 7 or 8 games? And for that we have to give up some of our best prospects plus possibly a starting pitcher? When we are running away with the division? It does not make sense.
Would you do the Granderson trade again? I think history says Yanks should have stuck with Austin Jackson in CF. Would have then kept Phil Coke and Ian Kennedy.
Recall the trade:
December 8, 2009: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Detroit Tigers to the New York Yankees. The Detroit Tigers sent Edwin Jackson to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The New York Yankees sent Phil Coke and Austin Jackson to the Detroit Tigers. The New York Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks sent Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to the Detroit Tigers.
So an open question: Would you do the trade given how it turned out?
I just googled-up some revelant links:
bronxbaseballdaily.com/2011/09
capitalnewyork 2012/04
bleacherreport December 2009
I understand where this question is coming from regarding Granderson. It’s an attempt to show because of a good move where youth was traded we should feel comfortable making this trade so now I will explain to you the difference.
Granderson is a different player than Upton for the following reasons:
1-Granderson plays a premiere position in CF while Upton play a corner position. CF are a hot commodity while you can use stop gap corner outfielders who may not put up Upton numbers but can in the Yankee lineup hold there own.
2-Granderson was known as a class act, hardworking, overall good role model. Upton has character issues and is known as a me me player in Arizona which is one of the big reasons Arizona wants to trade him.
3-Upton is coming with shoulder concerns, while Granderson was not.
4-The only positive you can spin is that Upton will be 24 when they trade him while Granderson was 28 but you do not sacrifice a big portion of your farm for a player with too many question marks.
Now lets compare Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to what the Yanks will be giving up now and what they could afford to give up than. 1-Ian Kennedy had some attitude problems win he was with big club and he rubbed some veteran players the wrong way. He was a rookie and he had limited success. He was slated to be a mid rotation starter. He had a great year last year but please understand that it was in the National League and we see the difference in talent and stats as we can just look no further than AJ Burnett for an example. Banuelos is a lefty who prior to injuries was ranked in top 25 of all prospects but more importantly, he is a LEFTY!
2-Austin Jackson was known to be a great glove just like Mason Williams but his concerns was making contact. Mason Williams is too young to really judge but it appears he brings same skill set as far as pop, great speed, and great defense but Mason has shown the ability prior to this year too hit for a higher avg, which was higher than Austin did at same level. It’s impossible to gauge but Austin is having a great year and he may even be there MVP.
3-Lastly, it’s gonna take more than Banuelos and Mason Williams, we will need to thrown in Sanchez or another big young bat and maybe Nunez. They may also want a David Phelps, remember we are getting a young proven commodity.
But also remember teams do not trade young proven players with favorable contracts for no reason especially when they are still competing for a chance to make playoffs. I say nay on this deal and lets keep train rolling with an eye towards building a very good farm.
I am always invstigating online for ideas that can facilitate me. Thx!