Reuters photo
Last night illustrates why I think the Yanks would be well served to consider trading Phil Hughes this off season, should the right deal present itself. I’m not talking about dumping him, but if I have a choice between building a deal around Phil or Ivan Nova, I’m doing the Hughes package even if it means giving up more elsewhere in the deal. Upton? Where do I sign? A solution at Catcher straight up? Sold.
Phil is the pitching version of the Yanks 2012 offense. He seems to allow most of his runs via the long ball, while giving up little else. Last night he gave up 3 HRs for a league leading 25 on the season, tying him with journeyman Jason Vargas. Other than that he flat out dominated the Red Sox offense, allowing just a walk, a ground ball single, and a ground-rule double while striking out five. Phil’s saving grace last evening was that all three were solo shots, which is something we’ve seen a lot of lately.
I’ve long been of the opinion that his 4 seam fastball, up in the zone, fly ball tendencies and handedness will always be a poor fit at YS3 and nothing I’ve seen this year has changed that view. In fairness, the 3 shots he gave up last night would have been out in all 30 parks according to Hit Tracker. That’s pretty standard fare for Hughes both this season and prior. Take a look at his 2012 HR distance chart:
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In 2012 Hit tracker says that 3 of his HRs allowed would only have been out in Yankee Stadium. Three others would have only been out in some MLB parks (8,15,16). His 2010 chart is very similar, where if he was pitching elsewhere in a park friendly to his style one could potentially shave 5 or 6 HRs off his total. It must be noted that Phil gave up 25 HRs for the entire season in 2010 (6th in AL that year) a figure he is sure to surpass by a wide margin this year. The three Yankee Stadium HRs this year were two solo shots a 2-Run dinger by Chris Ianetta. Striking those from his ledger would lower his current 4.08 ERA to very respectable 3.79. The other three blasts that were in the middle in terms of distance accounted for another 5 runs. That means if Hughes was pitching in a ballpark friendly to a fly ball pitcher, he could potentially have a 3.41 ERA. That’s before we do the league adjustment, which is a standard .50-.75 off your ERA for players going from the AL to NL. So yeah, if you trade Hughes to a NL team he could become another 2011 Ian Kennedy.
But until Phil learns to generate ground balls, something he has never done with efficiency over the course of his 6 year career, then I think the smart move is to take the value he has reestablished this season and convert it to an area of need this winter. Phil has really been on top of his game this year, a whopping 19 of his 25 HRs allowed have been solo shots. Four of those 6 multi-run shots came in April, a month in which he had a 7.88 ERA. That’s not a coincidence. Of the 14R he allowed for the month of April 9 of them were scored via the long ball. On the season he’s allowed 61 Runs, 32 of which have been scored on long balls. If Phil isn’t sharp and allowing baserunners, he is always in danger of having his ERA balloon quickly to an ugly number with all the HRs he allows. That’s who he is as a pitcher, we’ve seen it happen across multiple seasons and the short porch at YS3 exacerbates the issue. I think Phil has lived up to the lofty potential he had as a top pitching prospect back in 2007, he’s just been a poor fit at Yankee Stadium. Entering his final year before becoming a free agent in 2013, in my view his best use would be to cash in those chips he’s earned this year rather than risk a repeat of 2008, the 2nd half of 2010 and first half of 2011. Be smart and get out while the gettin’s good.
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16 Responses to Take the money and run with Hughes this offseason
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I don’t think Hughes has much value honestly.
Next year is his last before FA and hell be making $5-8m in arbitration.
If your the D’Backs(or any team) why would you want him this offseason?
There will be pitchers in free agency who project similarly and can be had for 1 year 5-8m or less and you won’t have to surrender any talent to sign those guys.
If some team wants to give us a decent bat for Hughes we should by all means get rid of him. I don’t think any team will bite, our best chancd to deal him would be right now, he loses a lot of value in the offseason
Would I include Hughes as part of a package to get Upton. YES! However, I’d rather give up Nova.
Would I trade Hughes straight up for a catcher. No. Well, if it was an elite catcher, but I know that’s not happening.
There is no debating the fact that Hughes gives up too many HRs at YS3, 17 in 68.2 innings or one every 4 innings. On the road he’s allowed 8 in 52.2, or one every 6.5 innings.
However, his slg% is slightly better at home (.472 vs .483), his BA against is better at home (.234 vs. .271), and even his wOBA is better at home (.321 vs. .344).
All in all, I can live with the high number of HRs allowed. especially if he limits the ones allowed with base runners. I think he can continue to be an effective starter for the Yanks. And if he could suddenly (and unexpectedly) learn to significantly increase his GB rate, he could become a #2 starter.
You’d rather trade Nova than Hughes?
You realize Hughes is 1 year from free agency and Nova is 5 years from free agency?
That’s crazy
Hughes is pitching better than Nova. That’s my simple reason for preferring to trade Nova. However, nether can be traded before the season is over.
At this point, Hughes is what he is — a back-of-rotation starter for a contending team. (The standards for effective starting pitcher are higher for a good ball club — after all, quality starting pitching is what makes a contender.) Sure, sentiment argues for keeping him because he is home grown and all that. But sentiment is what gets a GM fired. It makes sense to see whether Hughes can be used as a significant trade chip in the upcoming off-season. Looking ahead to next year, Pineda should return to take Hughes’s slot, and ideally at least one of Kuroda or Pettitte will return, too.
I’m not opposed to trading Hughes. The questions are 1) what do we get in return and 2) how do we fill his spot in the rotation. Pineda will not be back until May and will remain a major question mark until he establishes that he’s come back to form. Neither Pettitte nor Kuroda are locks to return – I’m sure the Yankees will want them to – but I’m not trading any starters until I know that they are. Banuelos may need at least half a season at AAA so he can’t be assumed to fill the spot.
Corner OF and C are the two obvious targets but it remains to be seen if premium guys like Upton will be available for a package built around Hughes and high-A prospects.
Martin is your catcher. Look past the numbers. He is as tough a catcher as there is in the game. His defense is above avg if not better. He blocks the plate better than most catchers. He raises his game against the hated sox. And the offense is still good enough with his below 200 avg. lastly we probably can get him on two yr deal for 20 million per after this awful year and groom Romine and Sanchez to take over.
You guys are insane. The problem Phil had most recently was not pitching to contact, i.e., nibbling around the plate. He’s learning to have confidence in his stuff, and is attacking the zone. Last year or two he tried to be super-fine and ran up pitch counts when he couldn’t get strike outs. If he develops a two-seamer like Flaherty suggested, he takes a step up to a number two guy. You say I’m crazy, take April out of his stats and the fact he is starting to pitch deeper into games I don’t think he’s going anywhere!
And those mentioning Pineda – HE HAD A SHOULDER INJURY! He could be done!
And one more thing – don’t you guy remember Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon – they were once the Yankees end-of-the-rotation guys! Cashman lives in fear of a repeat of that situation! How do Nova and Hughes compare to those two? They are also heading to 200 innings pitched seasons,answering one more complaint that had been directed at them. You can never have too much starting pitching, especially quality 3-4-5 guys. The wrong 3-4-5 guys and you burn out your bullpen. The best formula for winning in baseball is starting pitching, and you’re seeing it in the Yanks this year with 4 ten game winners.
We have come so far in Phil’s development that to trade him based on a remaining flaw is still to sell low. Unless eager buyers compete to acquire him, we won’t get true value for his potential.
Verlander is a flyball pitcher. If the Yanks had him, would they trade him for a big hitter, or a catcher, straight up? I doubt it. Yet he throws a fb, curve and changeup.
If they decide to trade him, I hope they will trade for multiple high prospects, pitchers or positions of need, as part of a plan to cope with a budget, yet a need for excellence.
Big difference. Phil doesn’t miss bats the way Justin does.
I just looked into this Justin Upton guy. His errors in right field are at least as embarrassing as Phil Hughes home run total, if not moreso! Three 10+ error seasons! Don’t you guys remember the Yanks got rid of a good hitter – Bobby Abreu – because of his shaky outfield play? The Yanks banished Eduardo Nunez to triple A because of his shaky fielding even though he was batting around 300 at the time. We’re gonna trade a solid 4 or 5 guy (who might develop into a 2 or 3) for a right fielder who has had multiple double-digit error seasons? That’s a good one!
that either the full answer or part of the answer to the question bugging me: why would the Diamondbacks ( John Tower, Kurt Gibson )trade such a young super-hitter?
Kinda like the Jubaldo Jiminez offer.
Phil is still developing, and I think we should go the last mile with him. He has shown determination in ’09 and in his comeback from sophomore tired-arm blues. I’d rather get a lesser trade return eventually, to avoid wasting the real prize. Or a reliever.
There have been quite a few great pitchers who give up tons of HRs. Two who come to nind: Robin Roberts (who once gave up 55 HRs in a season but was one of the best pitchers in baseball) and Catfish Hunter. Like Phil, they both limited walks and gve up lots relatively harmless solo blasts.
I am not averse to trading Hughes — but only if we get fair value. Tight now he should be vauloed as highly as all those hi-profile pitchers that are on the block. He’s healthier than Johnson (knock on wood) and younger and perhaps soon to be superior tyo Garza and Shields. It justy amazes how bloggers and many Yankee fans undervalue our own players,l willing to give them away for the needed “piece” of the moment. If Hughes is traded, he should get a large haul.