While the Mets staying above water and the White Sox leading the A.L. Central have been surprising stories of the 2012 season, there seems to be no bigger surprise than the Philadelphia Phillies. As I write this, they’re nine games under .500, sitting in last place (11 GB) of the first place Washington Nationals (!). While some predicted a fall by the Phillies this year, few could’ve seen them falling this far. While they refuse to call themselves sellers, they’ve traded both Jim Thome (to the O’s) and Chad Qualls (to the Yankees) in the past week . There have also been rumors that the team is shopping outfielder Shane Victorino and lefty starter (and personal favorite) Cole Hamels.
Of these pieces, there should be obvious interest in Hamels. In the abstract, he is perfect for the Yankees. He’s a lefty entering his prime–this is his age 28 season–and he strikes people out (no fewer than 20% K rate in any of his pro seasons) without walking them (career 6.2 BB%). He doesn’t quite keep the ball on the ground as much as we’d like–43.3% career ground ball rate–but his HR/FB–11.15%–isn’t all that worse than average, considering the infrequency of grounders. Of course that sounds great; the Yankees, and any team for that matter, should always want a pitcher that good. But is it practical and realistic for the Yankees to attempt to acquire Hamels?
It’s practical in that the Yankees do have a hole in the rotation, and will have one until Andy Pettitte returns. With him out, the Yankees could use an extra starter. Of course, that could lead to a log jam if Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova continue to pitch well, but that “too much pitching” thing always seems to work itself out, just like it did early this year. And, cliche as this may sound, flags fly forever. There’s no doubt that Hamels would do a lot in helping to secure a 28th World Series title. They should try to trade for Hamels, but can they? This is where it gets dicey.
While the Phillies may turn into sellers, they definitely have the ability to compete in the coming years without gutting the current team too much. Because of that, it’s presumable that they’d want upper-level prospects that are ML-ready or close to it. The Yankees don’t really have that. While Manny Banuelos could represent that, he’s been some combination of shaky or hurt all season and probably isn’t good enough on his own to headline a package for a pitcher of Hamels’ caliber. If the Yankees are to acquire Hamels, they could definitely include Banuelos, but they’d also have to include a lot of lower-level talent that may not be too enticing to the Phillies, depending on what other teams can offer. There’s also the financial issue, as I’d assume the Yankees would want an extension window with Hamels. Considering the $189M payroll looming for 2014, as referenced here, it might be a tough proposition to give Hamels the contract he wants. That, of course, is another issue altogether, which I’ll tackle next week during the All-Star Break.
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10 Responses to Should the Yankees trade for Cole Hamels? Can they?
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TIQ IQ
Gerardi needs to move a Rod to second in the batting order and move Grandy to third A-Rod has no more power and slugging. Arod has no more power and slugging. Giardi needs to learn from his mistakes from last year ESP in the postseason when Arod was cleanup, only thing arod did in key spots was strikeout
Just thinking that next year the yankees only have 3 solid (?) pitchers for next year. CC, Nova, Hughes. 1 iffy pitcher in micheal. You really have 3 inexpensive pitchers and 1 expensive. I think that the young one at 3A are jus not ready. I would trade for Coles and sign for 4 years at 20 and still not have it blow the budget because Swisher is coming othe books and so is sori. So is Kuroda and Pettitte. Pitching is everything!
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Pettitte. He’s pitched great until this flukey HBP, if he wants to return next year the Yankees will sign him, most likely to a bigger contract than this year.
Kuroda has also pitched well enough that if he wants to be back on another deal for 1 year 10 million I don’t see the Yankees having a problem with that.
I also wouldn’t just assume Soriano is going to opt out of his deal. I really hope he does, and he’s certainly on his way to a multi year offer from someone you would assume. However the offseason market for older closers doesn’t seem to be what it once was.
Also if you think Cole Hamels is signing a 4 year deal you’ve lost your mind. Cole will be 29 going into next season, this is going to be his only chance to sign a long term contract in his career. He needs to get as much value and length on this deal as possible. After CC got not one but two seven year deals, I wouldn’t expect anything less than 7 years and 150 million.
It is true that Swisher is coming off the books, there is no chance he is brought back. But we are going to somehow have to replace both him and Martin at C. Maybe they go with an Andruw Jones or Ibanez type to start in RF and Romine/Cervelli to start at C, but that would be a pretty god awful from what we are use too if both Alex and Teixeira don’t really step up.
I wonder what Andy Stankiewicz is doing? Or Mel Hall? Might was well do it right.
Just kidding but still ….
I’d include Banuellos and Betances for Hamels if they could lock him up prior to completion of the trade
The yankees have about 45 million coming off the books next year, if you count Sori. Cole would replace 10 million for Kuroda. 4 from AJ. 4 from garcia. 2 from Andy. Which would be 20 million for next year. They will have 10 from swisher, 3 from feliciano. they can get replacements for about half that for those positions.
Don’t forget the increase in pay for arbitration players. Also the Yankees will most likely resign Granderson and Cano at the end of the 2013 season.
Except as I said I could see a scenario in which Soriano, Pettitte, and Kuroda all come back. I almost guarantee Kuroda is back, and I have a strong feeling Pettitte will want to end his career the right way with Mariano.
they just dont have the prospects. wait for fa and hope hes still available. cashman is a moron for trading montero for a non-sure thing.
What’s a sure thing? There is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to pitching, the same injury could have happened to any pitcher in baseball. If he had traded Montero, Banuelos, Mason Williams, and Betances for Felix Hernandez, then in the middle of the season Hernandez blew out his arm would you be saying hoe stupid he was for trading for a “non-sure thing”? You probably would.
Also had we kept Montero and used him as our DH I highly doubt the Phillies would have traded for him. Few even now believe he’ll ever be a full time starting catcher and he’s hitting .245/.282/.377, he couldn’t have been a bigger disappointment thus far at the plate. I know no one cares because it’s simply more popular to bash Cashman and act like Montero has a higher than .659 OPS but it sill isn’t correct.