Matt Slocum/Associated Press
A.J. Burnett may not be a Yankee, but analyzing his post-Yankee days may tell us how other team’s approached the problem child. The starting pitcher has been wildly successful this season, posting a 3.59 ERA, a 3.50 FIP, a 7.44 K/9, and 2.84 BB/9. Most of the media’s analysis has ended at the league change, but I figured Burnett and the Pirates deserved a more in depth look over.
What I expected to see was a decrease in homeruns outside of Yankee Stadium and the AL East, and indeed it dropped from 17.0% HR/FB last year to 11.8% in 2012. I also expected the strikeout rate to increase due to the pitcher’s spot in the lineup, but the number has decreased from 8.18 K/9 in 2011 to 7.44 K/9 in 2012. Outside of what we assumed would happen with the Pirates, he’s increased his groundball rate from 49.2% to 57.0%, and he’s lowered his BB/9 rate from 3.92 to 2.84. National League baseball does indeed benefit pitchers, but it appears that Burnett and the Pirates have changed something to help him induce groundballs and harness his control.
| Pitch Type | Selection | Velo | V Mvt | H Mvt | Spin Angle | Spin Rate |
| Four-Seam (2011) | 40.2% | 92.7 | 9.05 | -4.32 | 206 | 2,040 |
| Four-Seam (2012) | 45.1% | 92.4 | 7.07 | -4.95 | 216 | 1,803 |
| Sinker (2011) | 10.6% | 92.0 | 4.22 | -8.31 | 244 | 1,910 |
| Sinker (2012) | 16.6% | 92.7 | 4.66 | -8.89 | 242 | 2,036 |
| Curveball (2011) | 33.4% | 82.6 | -5.52 | 4.47 | 46 | 1,304 |
| Curveball (2012) | 29.8% | 81.6 | -5.97 | 5.21 | 42 | 1,409 |
| Changeup (2011) | 9.0% | 88.0 | 2.20 | -5.76 | 249 | 1,236 |
| Changeup (2012) | 8.5% | 87.8 | 1.90 | -6.29 | 254 | 1,299 |
| Cutter (2011) | 6.8% | 92.3 | 8.49 | -1.13 | 189 | 1,733 |
| Cutter (2012) |
The graph above compares the Burnett’s individual pitches from 2011 and 2012, and two significant differences exist. The first, Burnett has lost the cutter, and hasn’t thrown a single fastball with a spin angle below 180 degrees. Interestingly, Phil Hughes, who added the cutter around the same time as Burnett, lost the pitch in 2012 as well. Secondly, the four-seam fastball is showing much more sinking action, and is averaging a spin angle 10 degrees higher. The understanding here is that an increase in spin angle equates to an increase in sinking action. More sinking action means more groundballs, and more groundballs means less flyballs and linedrives for extra base hits. That’s a good thing.
Indeed, the groundball rate on Burnett four-seam has sharply risen from 36.4% in 2011 to 49.7% in 2012. The other batted balls have subsequently dropped, with the flyball rate going from 32.7% to 25.5% in 2012, and the linedrive rate falling from 23.9% to 17.6%. As the most used pitch in his arsenal, the batted ball rates on the four-seam have drastically changed his average batted ball rates on the year. If the current 57.0% groundball rate holds up, it will be the second highest of his career.
Honestly, these two four-seams appear exactly the same to me. I’ll leave it up to the TYA community to see something I may have missed. Most likely Burnett has some sort of a different grip between the two pitches above, and as you can see the spin angles are around 15 degrees apart.
While sorting through the individual pitches for 2012, it appears that many of his sinkers have been incorrectly labeled four-seams. This would alter the outcomes listed above, and make the PITCHf/x numbers on the four-seam appear more like a sinker. Brooksbaseball.net confirms my suspicion, and lists the sinker selection at 29%. This would mean that Burnett has doubled his sinker usage from 2011 to 2012, which becomes the primary reason for his success this year.
The question remains, why didn’t the Yankees ever try this? The impressive strikeout rates from the Larry Rothschild effect have led me to love him, but he doesn’t have a history of increasing groundball rates. Considering the small ballpark, and the homerun issues with Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova, you’d think that developing sinkers would be an important aspect for starters in the Yankee organization. However, Gameday only has Nova throwing the two-seam fastballs 4.7% of the time, and Phil Hughes doesn’t throw one at all.
For Burnett, the key to success was adding movement on the four-seam and throwing more sinkers. The Yankees may not want Burnett back, but they should take this as an opportunity to see how he succeeded under different instruction, and identify their own weaknesses. I try not to pretend like I know more than the professionals, but with the dimensions of Yankee Stadium and the stadiums in the AL East, it’s a mystery to why the organization is seemingly emphasizing the cutter over the sinker.
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19 Responses to Lessons To Learn From Burnett’s Success
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TIQ IQ
“For Burnett, the key to success was adding movement on the four-seam and throwing more sinkers.”
Maybe… but how about the fact that its a CONTRACT YEAR!.. Let’s see when was AJ’s last really good year? wait! that’s right it was a CONTRACT YEAR!
just sayin folks!
It’s not a contract year, he’s still under Pirate control next season… So that doesn’t work.
I think he has one year left after 2012. I believe Yanks signed him to a five year deal starting in 2009. I also have to think that he might be pitching better due to the no pressure situation. Toronto/Pittsburgh is a long ways a way from the Bronx.
My bad… I thought it was a 4 year deal.
Agreed. Some people just can’t deal with the pressure cooker of the constant and intense attention that is Gotham. I’m betting that Ichiro will fit right in and thrive. AJ had some of the best stuff in the baseball, but just couldn’t get his head into it in The Bronx. Kudos to him for his achievements this season in Pittsburgh, home of the fantastic Andy Warhol museum.
How much did we pay him to find out he couldn’t cut it at The Stadium?
It looks like they adjusted his release point so there is less separation between his hand and his body – maybe he’s hiding the ball a little better.
Who knows, but I would think before the Yankees went looking into what Pit has done right and they did wrong, they would want Burnett to do it for a least a full season, if not longer. Burnett was good for the yankees too in the begining of the season to only fall off a cliff. Burnett could start sucking tommorow and I dont think it would suprise anyone.
Great analysis , Michael….though the NL and pttsburgh is not the Al and New York. And that is probably the biggest reason a surly head case like AJ is doing better.
Thanks! I agree, a change of ballparks helped him, and perhaps the atmosphere of Pittsburgh, but I a change in coaching made a difference as well.
Your welcome…Michael.
I think I read that AJ said he was tinkered with too much when he was on the Yankees. Did you read that?
That sounds familiar actually. It’s just an observation, but it seems the Yankees try and add a cutter to everyone’s repertoire. Burnett cuts it and succeeds, Hughes cuts it and succeeds. Correlation does not imply causation though.
Great analysis – I hope someone in the Yankees organization reads this and word gets to Rothschild. Makes a lot of sense, and let’s not forget Chien Mien’s Wang’s success as a sinker ball pitcher for the Yanks (ie before he got hurt running the bases)
Being as it becomes expensive to sign pitchers with great sinkers, why not just sign the pitching coach who has developed Burnett’s new style. AJ tried and tried as a Yankee but couldn’t be a success. Didn’t matter that much, home or away.He is one of the few “busts” that I really rooted for-it appeared he was always trying.
Scratching my head-who has Rothschild really developed? Hughes has been up and down, Joba is a mental mess, CC should be locked in a room until he loses weight and regains the stamina to go 8 or 9 innings, and several more who have drifted into obscurity under Larry’s tutelage.
I think what most people have forgotten over the years: relievers are there to rescue the starter and/or preserve the win when the starter breaks down, not as part of the rotation which seems to be the mentality of most coaches and managers.Too often it becomes automatic to go to the bullpen once the 7th inning rolls around. What has happened? Pitchers can’t go more than seven innings? Where does it say that?
I think you have to give Rothschild credit for developing Nova. Larry’s MO has been to help increase break on breaking pitches and help develop a guys strikeout ability, that sounds exactly like what Nova’s done. You also can’t blame Joba on Larry since he wasn’t here for most of that and has probably worked with him less than anyone.
Yankee coaches are just long lasting buddies who don’t really know crap. scouts are not any better, can’t think of too many players they have discoverd.Too bad the old man isn’t still around these clowns would e looking for work!
Yeah it’s not like we drafted Hughes, Nova, Cano, Robertson, Phelps, or Nunez. It’s also not like our coaches had anything to do with Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, or Boone Logan’s success. They’ve certainly never signed anybody like Garcia, Colon, Cory Wade, or Russell Martin when others wouldn’t and got great seasons out them either. Bunch of bums really.
Jeter,Posada, Pettitte, Rivera and Bernie Williams too. Bunch of bums
Yogi knew the answer to this situation: “Baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical”. In Burnette’s case, he is a giant with monster stuff in the part of the equation that is physical, but is a mental midget in the 90% part. The strength and stuff of a lion, the heart of a lamb. If he were suddenly traded back to the Yanks today, he’d finish the year something like 2-9 with an ERA over 5.
Good fit for the Bucs, good riddance for the Yankees.
Go AJ!