New set of pinstripes for 2013?
Following up on my post from yesterday, we have a Joel Sherman piece this morning that explores the possibility of the Yanks trading for the Diamondback star Right Fielder. He confirms some items that we’ve heard elsewhere. The Yanks have checked in on him, he’s very much on the outs in Arizona, and Joel comes to the same conclusion I did that if a Yanks/D-Backs were to consummate a deal, it would most likely happen in the offseason. What I found most interesting was that after Joel quoted both Cashman and Towers in the piece (obviously having spoke to both recently) he offers up an outline of his own for a deal:
For the Yankees, I think it would take, at minimum, one of their best prospects, plus someone who can play shortstop now and a pitcher who could help immediately. So something like Mason Williams, Eduardo Nunez and David Phelps. Remember, Towers is pals with Cashman and knows the system well, having worked as a Yankees special assistant in 2010.
Whenever a trade package is floated, we all have our quibbles and this one is no exception. Mason Williams is a wonderful talent, but he’s not going to be ready to plug in immediately (BA puts his ETA at 2014) so offering him as a replacement for Upton doesn’t work in terms of timing. I could see the Yanks trying to build a package around someone like Phil Hughes rather than Williams if they get assurances from Pettitte/Kuroda that one or both will return for 2013. Its possible Hughes may be willing to extend in AZ, which is much closer to his native California. If I were Hughes, I would certainly consider a 2-3 year extension. His career has been up and down with the Yanks and some financial security would make more sense than going through 2013 and testing the FA waters, where its debatable what his market would be. If I were Towers I would want to lock the 26 year old Hughes up for a few years, knowing his Yankee stadium Home/Road splits and that a move to the NL West could benefit him enormously. Shave some YS3 HRs off his ledger and Phil could find himself grossly underpaid if Towers extended him now. Or he could get hurt and do little. Risk and reward for both sides, sounds fair to me.
While were discussing risk and reward, let’s put a few things on the table about Upton. He’s currently having the worst season of his career, mostly due to a dramatic drop in power. He’s also not cheap unless he recovers his All Star form (in which case he’s a steal). He’s performing right around league average (103 OPS) this year for his position and is slated to earn 9.75M, 14.25M and 14.75 from 2013-15. However for luxury tax purposes, the AAV of his deal is 8.54M, so he could aid the Yanks in getting to their 189M 2014 target. If Upton can deliver similar production to that of Nick Swisher, it would make more sense for the Yanks to deal for Upton than re-sign Swish at market rates, which figure to be 12-15M annually for 3-5 years for the 32 year old. And let’s make one thing clear. If Upton is on top of his game, he’s the far better player. In Upton’s 2011 campaign he amassed a 6.4 WAR (Fangraphs) while Swisher’s best year was 4.1 WAR in 2010. And let’s not forget Upton is just 24 years old. Its reasonable to expect that he hasn’t entered his prime production years. The upside makes me think Sherman’s package is a bit light. It might take Hughes AND Williams to land Upton, which I must admit I would still do. I would even build a package around Ivan Nova and Williams if I had to and go one more year with Phil.
One element shouldn’t be underestimated. The fact that Kevin Towers spent 2010 working for the Yanks as a special assistant to Brian Cashman makes him very familiar with the Yankee system and therefore very comfortable in making a deal with them. He’s not relying on scouting reports from people in the Arizona organization who he may not have hired, rather first hand eye witness accounts. When weighing offers from other teams, that will mean the Yanks will simply have to match and they will still have an edge. Of course, if a team decides to blow Arizona away then the Yanks may either decide to pass or not have the assets to match. The Yanks don’t have a system on par with that of Atlanta or Texas, both of whom may be in the market for Upton’s services. But I think its safe to say the Yanks are in the mix, will be serious bidders and have an edge going in.
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11 Responses to Kicking the tires on Upton
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TIQ IQ
If that’s all it takes, or if those would be the three biggest players in the deal, you have to do it in a heartbeat (if ‘Zona would even accept it).
I love Williams and he could be GOOD, but as mentioned he’s far off and J-Up is an All-Star talent RIGHT NOW.
I agree, which is why I mentioned that I thought it was light in the piece a few times.
Rather than get hung up on those players, I think the framework of the deal is what matters. Its there. Though if a Texas was to do a Profar++ deal or Atlanta a Teheran++ deal, the Yanks would have trouble matching.
Texas should be able to beat us out on just about any package but would they be going for offense? They seem like a team best suited to try and land a Greinke, Lee, or Hamels to try and put them over the top. They always find a way to manufacture a potent offense.
Chris, did you get my e-mail from this morning? Let me know.
I just got it and I sent you one back not long ago.
I think they’d have to come stronger than Phelps to make it happen.
One year of Hughes and the thought that maybe he signs an extension couldn’t be the lead player. Its debatable that he’d offer more in trade value than a cost controlled Phelps. Replace Phelps with Nova in Sherman’s proposal and I think maybe you have the core of a package that would be a reasonable first offer, and that would assume that Towers thinks much more highly of Nunez than the average Yankee fan and it would still require more secondary pieces.
I think they absolutely should be kicking the tires on Upton but personally I’m not in favor of emptying the farm for a corner outfielder no matter how good and young. I expect that in the end the price will be too high.
I agree on most points, but if you think Phelps would be more attractive than 1 year of Hughes we part ways there. Hughes is far more proven and offers more upside. I got off on a tangent with the extension stuff, and perhaps should have made that more clear. I think an extension makes loads of sense, but its seperate from the trade.
On Nova, I agree completely. But I think Towers is smart enough to buy undervalued assets, and Nova is who he is. Hughes could be top flight in a more friendly home park, so if I’m Towers I want to buy his current value thinking he’ll outperform. I want Hughes and Williams if I’m Towers, and if I’m Cash I still do it.
What do you think Hughes will earn next year in arbritation? I’m guessing around $7 million, give or take if he continues pitching this way the rest of the year. He won’t be cheap, and locking him up long term as you suggest would require a raise above that. I think that’s pretty risky given his inconsistencies. I’d much rather have Hughes than Phelps for next year but given their salary difference and Phelps’ additional years of control, I think Phelps probably has more trade value than Hughes.
I’ve always wanted to see Upton tested in CF. He has the athleticism to do it, and I’ve read articles where he has shown interest in doing it. If you could move him to CF and have him take over for Granderson full time at some point that adds tons of value when you consider what he can do with the bat.
Williams would certainly have to be involved in any deal, tough he’s struggled in his move up to High A his value should still be high since he showed a good combination of pop and speed in A ball and he’s only been in A+ a short time.
The interesting question to me would be if Towers would want Banuelos. Having not thrown but 24 innings due to injury, combined with his recent command struggles, has got to be killing his value around the league. Cashman says he’ll throw this year but trading for a hurt prospect is really a tricky matter, but if anyone would do it it might be Towers since he has to know the inside out of Banuelos better than any other GM in the league outside of Cashman.