(Am I the only one looking at the elbow there? Courtesy of Bombers Beat/Bryan Hoch)
(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)
When Jesus Montero was jettisoned off to the land of grunge, Manny Banuelos became the clear cut #1 prospect in the Yankee organization. If you voted for Gary Sanchez, more power to you, but a 21-year-old lefty with ace-caliber stuff and advanced command who rises through the system to Triple-A in just 3 full seasons gets the nod in my book. After he put in some solid work in his brief SWB debut late last season, and impressed the Yankee coaching staff in Spring Training, my hope/dream/thought was that ManBan would be best served spending another year in Triple-A refining his command and building up his innings count to prepare for an introduction to the Yankee rotation as a low-stress #4 or #5 starter in 2013. But with the way things have gone for Manny over the past couple seasons, now I’m not so sure about that plan. I swear I’m not trying to be the harbinger of prospect doom here, but in the same way that I was concerned about Dellin Betances last week, I’ve got some concerns about ManBan now.
My first, and biggest concern, is health-related. As he’s risen through the system, Banuelos has hit more than his fair share of injury speed bumps. He missed some time after an appendectomy in 2010 (and I believe there was a groin injury somewhere in there as well), dealt with blister issues in 2011, and this year has had 2 separate stints on the DL because of injuries to his lat and his left elbow. For some reason, FanGraphs still lists him at 5’11″/155 when he’s clearly up to 185-190, but his smaller stature and recent bouts with injuries are enough to make me think twice about how he would hold up over the grind of a 162-game, 200+ inning Major League season.
The recent elbow injury, and the way it’s being treated, are of great concern to me. The Yankees were very quick to have Banuelos MRI’d after he reported the discomfort, and we all breathed a sigh of relief when the MRI came back negative and the resulting DL trip was described as “precautionary.” But that was back on May 21st, over 3 weeks ago, and the “tired arm” diagnosis and precautionary status of the DL placement don’t seem to add up with the recent comments by Cash himself that Banuelos will be out for another month “or so.” Maybe I’ve just watched “Conspiracy Theory” one too many times on TNT, but 7-8 weeks seems like an awfully long time to be on the shelf with just a tired arm. I can’t help but think back to Michael Pineda‘s tired arm/sore shoulder situation in ST and how that ended up when I think about this current elbow situation with Banuelos.
If he is going to be out for at least another month, that means Banuelos won’t start throwing again until some time in mid-July, and that means we probably won’t see him back in game action until some time in August. That’s another 3 months of missed development time, and this is where my other concern comes in. The collection of health-related problems have served to prevent ManBan from building up innings, something that nobody wants to see as an issue with young Yankee pitchers after the way Joba and Phil Hughes were handled earlier in their careers. Banuelos threw just 129.2 innings last season, which ranked as a career high for him, and has only thrown 24.0 this season. By the time he comes back from his DL stint, he’s going to have no shot of reaching 100 innings this year and that’s not a good thing.
And like Betances, ManBan has seen some regression in his peripherals as he’s advanced up the MiL ladder. His bump up to Double-A in late 2010 saw his BB/9 jump to 4.70 in an admittedly small sample size of 15.1 IP, the first blip on his previously clean command radar. That elevated BB rate remained through his stint in Double-A last year (4.91 BB/9 in 95.1 IP) and also after his promotion to Triple-A (4.98 in 34.1 IP). He’s also seen his K/9 drop from 12.59 to 9.98 going from High-A to Double-A in 2010, to 8.87 in Double-A last season, and to 8.13 from Double-A to Triple-A. The K numbers had improved slightly this season, as had the BB rate, but in just 24 innings it’s hard to make much from that. He’s had 3 really crummy starts this year and 3 really good ones, and now he’s not going to pitch again for 2 months.
Banuelos is still a legit ace-type pitching prospect and at age 21 he’s still way ahead of the normal learning curve for a starting pitcher. But his meteoric rise through the system has been seriously halted by his health and command problems over the last year plus, and the plan for his continued development and eventual promotion is going to have to be seriously re-evaluated. The fact of the matter is that he still doesn’t have enough experience pitching against this upper level of hitters, he hasn’t shown that he can consistently command his stuff at this level, and he still hasn’t thrown what can legitimately be called a “full” season’s worth of innings. I still have high hopes for ManBan, and I’m still greatly looking forward to seeing him break into the Yankee rotation. I’m also much more cautiously optimistic about him than I was this last time year, and I’m bordering on starting to worry about what his future really holds.
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12 Responses to When Can I Start Worrying About Manny Banuelos?
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TIQ IQ
It always sucks when it seems that your best prospects go down but that is the nature of the beast known as the minors. At worst Manny may need some type of TJS which would be no fun but at least he would be protected by the 60 day DL. As far as development Manny needs at least 100 more innings in AAA before being MLB starter ready. Though if this does end up that Manny won’t pitch till late July or August he may have a chance to relieve for the Yanks in September and even pitch in the winter. Th worst part about it is that it has probably backed up his expected arrival by atleaat half a season.
I think it’d be a pretty big mistake if he pitched for the major league team this year. Guys tend to over throw anyway when they first get to the majors, put him in the pen, coming off a fresh elbow injury, pushing for a playoff spot, and you could see a re-injury happen quickly and possibly worse than before. Not a fan of that idea at all.
The problem, Brad, is that you bought into the early prospect hype, witness your description of Banuelos as a kid with “ace-caliber stuff and advanced command.” The statistics you present belie the latter claim — his command is hardly advanced, given his high walk rate. He was far ahead of the competition in the low minors, but as he’s moved up the ladder his stuff hasn’t played up the way it did earlier. With the decline in his K-rate, moreover, it is not at all clear that he has “ace-caliber stuff.”
I think it takes ten legitimate pitching prospects to yield one successful frontline starting pitcher. All the Yankees can do is load up on these kids, move them through the system, hope the coaching pays off, and pray they don’t get hurt. Think of it as being akin to throwing spaghetti against the wall — eventually, some of it will stick.
I agree that I don’t think he has “ace caliber stuff”. He’s maintained a high K rate even with the drop since rising in levels, but if you look he’s also maintained an extremely high H/9 ratio. When you walk 4+ batter per 9 innings, and you allow 8-9+ hits per 9 innings I don’t really consider that “ace caliber”. As the old saying goes you can give up hits or you can give up walks, but you can’t give up both. Unfortunately that’s exactly what Manny does, fortunately he can strike out batters and he can generate ground balls. He’s going to have to rely on stranding base runners, getting key Ks, and inducing double plays throughout his career top get out of jams if he keeps up posting really high WHIPS. That works as a talented middle rotation starter, but that’s not the description of an ace, since that formula is going to lead to some disaster games aces just can’t afford.
Anytime the word elbow is mentioned I get worried. I’ve seen all his starts this year and he was pitching really great after his stint on the DL with the Lat injury. I’m very concerned about this.
I never get worried when someone mentions “elbow”, the science o fixing elbows is almost completely figured out. We’ve gotten to the point you’re almost better off having Tommy John Surgery early in your career, tons of major league starters have had the surgery and many have come back from it with better stuff. It’s “shoulder” that worries me, doctors are still very much in the dark when it comes to making shoulders as good as they once were.
Most of his injuries (he never had a groin injury of any sort btw) until this year have been freak incidents (blisters, appendectomy) Also, despite what people think, height has no correlation with injury.
Over the years people have complained that the yankees have rushed guys back from injury (Joba, Hughes, Chien Ming-Wang, Pineda, etc) so when they decide to be careful, I can’t blame them.
Frustrated, yes. Worried, no. I have never been as high on Banuelos as most though. I view him more as a likely middle of the rotation starter than as a likely ace. He’s still young though so while this is a setback to his development, he’s still ahead of schedule to be in AAA at his age.
I see banuelos developing into more of a 2 than an ace. Ace is a word thrown around too loosely. He is only 21 and learning how to harness his stuff. If he was drafted out of college and went immediately to AAA and had these issues, would we be as concerned? Or is it just the anticipation of having a home grown front of the rotation starter that has alway eluded the Yankees since Ron Guidry?
Yeah I never really saw “ace” when looking at Banuelos, I’ve maintained for sometime that I think his best current major league comparison is Gio Gonzalez. Gio is a little taller but the stuff is very similar, the rise through the minors in peripheral numbers look very similar, and the big glaring weakness of lack of command also mirrors Gonzalez. To me Gio is the perfect number 2 in the NL, but in the AL East he may very well be a number 3, which would be more than fine if Banuelos develops into that. Though I do have my concerns about his durability, not because of any injury he has suffered in his career, simply because his stature isn’t really that of a big work horse. Some may try and claim that size doesn’t matter when it comes to durability, but very few pitchers at 5’11 or smaller have been effective 200+ inning starters in the major leagues.
As fans, we can have unrealistic expectations for young players. The guy is only 21 and has flown through the organization AND he’s a lefty. Every young pitcher goes through their struggles mentally and physically. The Yankees will be in no rush with Manny. Look at former “bonus baby” Phil Hughes. He came up at 21. He had some injury setbacks. Now he’s 26 and he is still learning and evolving.
If Banuelos has Hughes’ career in front of him trade him now.