Some pre-draft thoughts

We are just a day away from the start of the 2012 MLB draft, where the Yankees will hopefully look to bring a new wave of future major leaguers into the fold.  EJ had a great post a few days ago outlining some general thoughts on how the Yankees might approach the draft this year that I definitely recommend checking out if you haven’t read it yet.

The draft is always difficult to predict, and this year will be no exception.  The new rules limiting bonus spending will likely change how teams spend on the draft, and ensure that players are picked roughly in order of talent.  In this new environment, it is unclear how the Yankees and other teams intend to operate, and whether there are any ways to effectively game the system (as giving overslot bonuses to mid-late round picks worked in the past).  The Yankees are losing some of their financial advantage, because their lower draft slot gives them a smaller bonus pool. With draft budgets limited, scouting becomes even more important for finding under-the-radar prospects, and hopefully the Yankee scouting department is up to the task.

The Yankees’ first round pick will be at #30 this  year, making it a very difficult selection to predict.  The Yankees’ recent draft history suggests that they will likely take a high school player, as they have done for the past 4 years (Dante Bichette, Cito Culver, Slade Heathcott, and he who shall not be named).  I tend agree with this strategy.  Because teams tend to be somewhat risk averse with their first round selections, most of the high-ceiling college players go earlier in the first round.  At #30, however, it is still possible to get a high school player with a substantial ceiling, though there is definitely more risk in that selection too.

There does not seem to be a strong consensus about who the Yankees will take at #30, but I will discuss a few guys today and tomorrow who could be good choices.  Mike Axisa has been profiling some possible options over at River Ave Blues, which is definitely worth checking out.  I’m going to look through some guys who have been mocked to the Yankees by the various “experts” out there, as well as a few who I find intriguing for one reason or another.  I’ll start with a few high school bats here, but will look at some more prospects between now and Monday night.

Stryker Trahan (C, Arcadiana HS)

Aside from having an 80 name tool, Trahan is one of the top high school bats in this draft class.  Going into the season, he was a no-doubt first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has raised some doubts.  A lefty hitter, Trahan has significant raw power, though his swing can use some work. While Trahan is a good athlete (also an excellent high school QB), he has had some struggles with his receiving that have led scouts to question his future behind the plate.  If he has to move, he has the athleticism and arm strength to handle right field, though this will place substantial pressure on his bat to be elite.  Trahan is ranked #27 by Baseball America, #21 by Keith Law, and is not in Kevin Goldstein’s Top 30 (though KG said he would’ve been 31).  His profile sounds very similar to KC’s Wil Myers.

Addison Russell (SS, Pace HS)

Going into the season, Russell was viewed as a talented prospect with significant concerns about his conditioning, and whether he could stay at shortstop long term.  He addressed those concerns this year, losing 20 pounds and improving his draft stock significantly.  At the plate, Russell has above-average to plus power and can hit to all fields.  Defensively, he is smooth and athletic with good arm strength and above-average speed.  Russell appears likely to stick at short unless he outgrows the postion, but would project as a plus defender at 3rd if he moved.  Russell checks in at #28 on the BA list, #20 on Keith Law’s list, and #16 on Kevin Goldstein’s list.  That is a fairly wide range, indicating that there is not a strong consensus on Russell’s defensive future.  Russell may not make it to #30, but I would have to think that the Yankees would be interested if he fell.

Joey Gallo (3b/P, Bishop Gorman HS)

At 6’5″  and 220 pounds, Gallo is a big kid with probably the best raw power in the draft.  He can put on a show in batting practice, but there are concerns about his ability to make consistent contact with his long swing.  Defensively, Gallo is fairly athletic for his size with a plus arm, but scouts are mixed on whether he has the range to stick at 3rd.   If he has to move, 1st base would be the likely outcome, which would increase the pressure on his offense.  While Gallo has stated that he prefers to be a position player, he is also a potential 1st-round talent as a pitcher, where he can hit the mid-high 90′s with his fastball and features a nasty slider.  It’s certainly not a bad fallback if hitting doesn’t work out (as the Red Sox did with Casey Kelly).  Gallo is #33 on the BA list, #22 on Law’s list, and #27 on KG’s.

More to come in subsequent posts, so stay tuned.

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