Could be the last time he'll be in pinstripes for quite a while
Yankee fans collectively breathed a sigh of relief yesterday, with the news that Michael Pineda’s injury wasn’t all that serious. It would now be easy to assume he’ll rest up for a few weeks, come back firing 95 MPH fastballs and assume his rightful place in the Yankee rotation. But I’m here to tell you I don’t think that’s the case, not even close. If you walk through the timeline of his rehab, I would argue you won’t see him back with the team indefinitely, barring injury or complete ineffectiveness by one of the other five members of the Yankee rotation. Further, I think there’s a good chance he won’t be back with the club until September. Yes, September.
In order to see where I’m coming from, let’s walk through the stages of his rehab. We’ve seen this play out before. When Joba Chamberlain was diagnosed with the same injury (shoulder tendonitis) in August 2008, he missed a month and came back that September as a reliever, mostly to keep his innings down. But doing that meant they didn’t have to stretch him back out as a starter, which would have taken more time. When Phil Hughes came into camp out of shape last year and didn’t have his usual fastball, he was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation and missed 2 and a half months between rest, getting himself back into shape and getting stretched out with his rehab outings. Given how his stuff was down this spring, we may very well see the rehab akin to the approach they took with Hughes, where he spent a month getting in shape before he even stepped back out on a mound. But even if he comes back as quickly as Joba did (doubtful) he still won’t have a spot on the MLB club.
Let’s examine a best case scenario. First, with his diagnosis of shoulder tendinitis he’s going to be shut down for the entire 15 days of his DL stint. No throwing, though he may be allowed to do some cardio work and whatnot. That puts us in mid-April. Next, they’ll give him a bullpen session to see what he looks like, and see how he feels the next day. Assuming there are no setbacks, he then heads to the AAA Empire State Yankees (formerly Scranton Wilkes-Barres) to begin his rehab. This is effectively the beginning of the spring training season all over again for him. They’ll build up his innings slowly, as you would with any pitcher. He’ll begin with around 40-50 pitches and add 10-15 each outing, building up to the point where he can go 100+ and give you 6-7 innings per start, minimum. That should take around 4-5 outings, or another month depending on the schedule. That puts you somewhere around the middle of May.
While all of this is going on, there’s another Yankee pitcher who began his spring training a few weeks ago and is on target to rejoin the team around May 1st. One Andrew Eugene Pettitte. As things stand today, Andy takes Freddy Garcia’s spot in the rotation. That gives you 6 MLB starters on the 25 man roster without Pineda. Assuming everyone is pitching reasonably well, which is not a very high bar to clear, Pineda stays put in AAA indefinitely. The 2012 Yankee rotation is filled with veterans who will be given every chance to turn things around even if they’re not throwing the ball well. Even the player with the least amount of experience, Ivan Nova, won 16 games in New York last year, and we’ve seen too many quality veteran imports (Weaver, Brown, Pavano, Wright, Burnett, Vazquez) come here and fail not value those wins heavily. One of the starting five would have to pitch horribly (ala 2011 Hughes or 2009 Wang) in order for them to lose their spot. Or, of course, someone would have to get injured where the decision is made for you.
All of this adds up Michael Pineda pitching for the AAA club for the foreseeable future, with no date set for his return. I know that fans of Jesus Montero will be repulsed by this scenario, saying we gave up a big bat for a guy who’s not even on the team. But those folks need to understand that Jesus Montero is no longer a member of the Yankee organization, and therefore no longer a consideration in the decisions being made going forward. Maybe Brian Cashman looks bad from a PR standpoint in 2012, but if we know anything about Brian we know he is unfailingly patient. This trade wont be given its final grade in 2012 or even 2014. We will have to wait at least 5 years to see if it worked out or not, and Jose Campos will be part of that equation. But as things stand today, it looks like Michael Pineda won’t get an opportunity to do his part of the evaluation anytime soon.
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22 Responses to What’s next for Michael Pineda?
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I’m afraid you’re right. We still don’t know why Pineda’s velocity was down throughout the spring. Whatever the cause, it could take many months before he regains his form from the 1st half of 2011.
Pitchers begin throwing in January, he came into camp with a gut that made it look like he hadn’t done any work before coming into camp. It’s understandable, he threw a career high in innings the year before and is 23 years old. But I think they go the Hughes route with him, reset the clock and he doesn’t even get in a game for a month and a half. After that he has to build up his arm as I laid out, so I would estimate its 2 and a half months before he’s even ready to come back, or mid-June. If the other guys are pitching decent, he has nowhere to go but to stay in AAA.
If they really love the way he’s throwing the ball, maybe they entertain a mid-season deal for a RF or C that involves a starter. Maybe. But chances are Pineda really screwed himself for 2012 by showing up out of shape.
If you saw how CC’s velocity was in his start today, that should answer your question. It’s spring training and for many guys it might take the entire spring and several regular season starts (as was CC’s case last year) to get the velocity up to normal speeds.
Well done April Fools joke.
I knew I’d get some of this from the Montero fans.
Steve, I think your scenario is possible. However, it is possible he is back faster. If he regains his velocity and dominates his rehab starts, they arent leaving their 2nd best pitcher in AAA when they have the best Yankee team assembled in years. I think its better than the 09 team. With such a good team, and good chance to win the WS you arent leaving him in AAA until September if he is right.
I’m thinking if he is showing signs of being close, or is ready he will be back by the trade deadline. If everyone is healthy and pitching well, they would trade Garcia and move someone to the long man role to free up a spot for Pineda.
As we have already seen pitchers get hurt or pitch poorly regularly, so the chances are decent he gets his shot before the deadline. His injury is too vague to really make and guesses as to how long it will keep him sidelined. Hughes’s seemed significantly worse last year. I do agree with you though 100%, Pineda has his work cut out for him. He wont just be handed a rotation spot like Hughes was last year after finishing his rehab. He will have to earn it, because this years staff is much deeper and better than the one Hughes came back to last year.
True. If and when Pineda gets healthy and is throwing at or near the level he was last year, he will be in the major leagues. When he’s right, he will at least be the Yankees third best pitcher, maybe even second. They won’t keep him in the minors if he’s right just because they already have a full rotation. When right, he’s better than Garcia, Nova, and Hughes (and likely Pettitte and possibly Kuroda). They will make room for him if/when he gets right.
“Assuming everyone is pitching reasonably well, which is not a very high bar to clear, Pineda stays put in AAA indefinitely.”
Not if Pineda regains last years form.
Lets be honest here, on paper the pitching staff looks very good, even without Pineda. However, Nova did not look good in ST and has been better than any of us/experts thought, he could easily regress and become replaceable. Phil Hughes was Philthy this ST but he has long past of inconsistency and could easily pitch himself out of the rotation. At the ripe old age of 40 Andy Petite is making a comeback and is no sure thing to be the Andy Petite that left the game a couple years ago. Garcia could loose what ever magic he has found in NY and get shelled at any given time with his lack of stuff. I think they will all be fine and most likely comprise one of the better pitching staffs in baseball, not as good as it would have been with the Pineda from last year, but very good.
That being said, there are question marks on this staff, besides injuries, that may not all be answered in a positive way. To discount Pineda until September based on a vague injury like tendonitis seems a bit drastic. Even if he isnt the Pineda from last year, he might and up being better than someone on this staff.
My gut tells me he’s back in early june and would be back earlier than that if there wasn’t such a full rotation already. I doubt he’s shut down for more than 3 weeks unless he comes back and something doesn’t feel right. This is not the same situation as Hughes. Hughes lost more velocity than Pineda and was completely ineffective. Pineda was (until the last start) effective with the reduced velocity and the velocity was slowly building. He was up to 94 in his previous start to this last one. That isn’t that alarming given the time of the year, his showing up out of shape, and his focusing on his off-speed pitches so much.
My guess is that he started overthrowing to answer the questions about his velocity. His lower body wasn’t as strong as it should be and it put stress on his shoulder. I think they are re-setting him, allowing him to heal and making sure he’s in the shape he should be before he tries to air it out again. This is smart. Hughes continued pitching when something was clearly wrong and that was probably a big contributor to him being out so long.
I can see them taking it a little conservative with him but there will be injuries and there’s no way that he stays in AAA if he’s pitching well and a starter goes down for more than a start or two. That seems to me almost certain to happen sometime before all star break.
I read yesterday they are only shutting him down for 10 days before he throws again. I cant find where I read it though, it was in the breaking 15 day DL news after the MRI. That means he doesnt have to do ST all over again and get stretched out. That would only set him back a couple of weeks, barring any continued shoulder issues.
I agree with you. Its very possible hes making starts in AAA by mid/late april and very possibly ready before June. Barring injury he will have to earn his spot though, by being noticeably better than someone else already on the staff. I dont see the Yankees handing him a spot otherwise.
If hes isnt the Pineda from last year, and the Yankees starting 5 are all pitching well, he could be in AAA for a long time. The Yankees would get another year of control, so this year wouldnt be nearly as painful for the organization.
Again, there are many scenarios, I think the September one that Steve mentions is the worst case and least likely.
I agree that it’s the least likely. I just wanted to raise it as a possibility to reinforce the idea that he could be stuck at AAA this year for an undetermined period of time.
I think you are definitely looking at a worst-case scenario there, but it’s not entirely out of the question. Ultimately, though, I don’t see Freddy Garcia being much of an impediment to Pineda once he is healthy, in shape, and has built up his arm strength.
I also don’t think Pettitte is going to be ready as quickly as everyone thinks, which may prevent the logjam from getting too severe. He has to do a lot of what Pineda will do, except he is pushing 40 and was out of baseball all last year. I am also not sure what to expect from Pettitte this year. However, I’m not too worried, these logjams seem to have a way fo sorting themselves out.
If there is a silver lining to your scenario, it would be that keeping Pineda in AAA for a little while will give the Yankees an extra year of control. This is obviously not a big deal for the Yankees, but could help a bit from a financial perspective.
Not sure what you’re referring to on Freddy. I have Andy being ready before Pineda, and Garcia being sent to the bullpen. That gives you a rotation of CC-Kuroda-Pettitte- Hughes-Nova, with Pineda in AAA. On Andy, I assume he’s ready first because he already has a head start on Pineda, who will be shut down for two more weeks before he can even start throwing again, which Andy is already doing.
Wouldn’t it be nice if baseball was this predictable. The chance of all of these things happening just as written are about as likely as a monkey banging out Othello on a type writer. The chances of the whole staff staying off the DL all season is similarly unlikely. In fact, about the only thing that is certain in baseball, is that projecting the future performance and health of baseball players is difficult at best and sometimes seems more like astrology than science. I don’t know if Pineda will be the beneficiary but I would be willing to bet that one of the season opening starters will leave a slot available for whoever starts the season on the DL or in AAA.
I think you are right that injuries are probably the most likely way this thing sorts itself out. Its just fun to speculate what happens in a perfect world with no injuries. LOL, thats why everyone uses barring injury so often when discussing these type of things, because injuries are more likely than not, especially with pitchers, going to play a huge role in who pitches and who doesnt.
However, as we saw late last season a logjam can develop and it can be detrimental to the team. The Yankees went to a 6 man rotation and that seemed to throw CC off. I am hoping not to see the 6 man rotation again this year.
Variations on this have been the most common response to this piece, and they don’t contradict a word I wrote. Yes, chances are someone will be ineffective or get hurt. I made reference to that. But looking at the timing of Pineda and Pettitte’s return, as things currently stand Pineda would get stuck at AAA for an indefinite period. Those two statements are not mutually exclusive in any way.
Well if you bring injuries into play, it very well could make them mutually exclusive. Depending on who got injured, Pineda and Petite could both join the staff with someone going to the long man role. Say nova hurts his elbow again, and hits the DL in a few weeks. I wouldnt think it unreasonable that they move Freddy to the pen and bring up Petite and Pineda. Knocking out one of the starters via injury I think makes the odds of Pineda spending alot of time in AAA significantly less.
if Pineda returns to last years form (or close to it), it won’t take injuries or ineffectiveness for him to return. They will make room for him.
Who goes?
Under Bill’s scenario I would think the first thing they do is trade Garcia. That would leave CC, Kuroda, Nova, Hughes and Petite. I would like to say Petite because there is a reasonable chance he is the yankees worst pitcher at the age of 40 and coming back from a year off, but we know that wont happen. My guess is Nova to the long role, which really sucks, but its a better option than fully healthy, flame throwing Pineda in AAA.
Here’s where I really disagree with your piece:
“Further, I think there’s a good chance he won’t be back with the club until September. Yes, September.”
There’s a chance but I wouldn’t characterize it as a good chance. I’d characterize it as a remote chance. And it’s mostly based on him either him reinjuring it while rehabbing or them finding something more serious. I’d put the chance of him being healthy and pitching most of the year in AAA only a little more likely than Pedro Feliciano and Joba pitching this year.