Its been a good three years, but this will probably be Swisher's last as a Yankee
Recently a lot has been made about how the Yankees will get their 2014 payroll below $189 million. The logic of avoiding onerous luxury taxes in the future is sound and no Yankee fan in his right mind should complain about a team that will be competing with only a $189 million budget. But those arguments won’t make the process of shedding excess fat any easier. If free-agents to-be Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson must remain in pinstripes (provided they perform) then certain key Yankees of the past few seasons may fall through the cracks. One such player is Nick Swisher.
Swisher may not be the biggest name or the flashiest player on the Yankees, but in his three years in pinstripes he’s been reliably strong. Swisher has hit 29, 29 and 23 home runs in each of his seasons in Pinstripes. He’s posted wOBA’s of .375, .377 and .358. His wRC+ has been 124, 132 and 122. Perhaps most impressively, his OBP has been .371, .358 and .374. Adding in defense that is better than advertised, and Swisher has consistently been a 3 or 4 fWAR player, not just as a Yankee, but every season since 2006 save his miserable 2008 season with the White Sox.
There are no negatives to Swisher. By every account he’s a model clubhouse citizen and popular with his team mates. He may be a bit goofy (something that is welcomed on the otherwise staid Yankees) but he’s a consummate professional. He’s durable, playing in at least 150 games every season since 2006. All in total, this means that he’s valuable. He’s also a free-agent this year.
Swisher’s most recent contract paid him $36 million over six years, far more than you or I could ever hope to make, but an absolute steal given that Fangraphs estimates his value at $84 million over that stretch. Even if you feel that estimate is generous, it’s clear that Swisher has been underpaid relative to his production. If he puts another quality season on the field Nick may be looking for the only chance he’ll have at a mega payday.
Given all this, what is a fair payday for Swisher, and should the Yankees keep him, even at fair market values? If all of the above are reasons why Swisher should get a solid contract, his age is a glaring strike against him. Most players who have gotten large, long term contracts recently in baseball have been roughly 30 or younger at the time they inked the contracts. Swisher will turn 32 at the end of this year. Any new contract for Swisher will begin in his age 33 season, also known as the start of the decline years. The first couple of seasons of that contract will be fine, but the latter half poses big risks for the team who signs Swisher. (Has that ever stopped baseball teams from writing up stupid contracts? No, it has not.)
An annual salary of $16 million feels like fair value for Swisher at his recent level of performance. The question is simply how many years. Frankly, anything more than three seems dangerous. I can easily imagine how Swisher can continue to play well through his age 34 season, but ages 35 and beyond are less convincing, especially for a player who likes to sacrifice his body as much as Swisher does. While three years at $48 million is crazy money for any of us, it might not seem as fair as five years and $80 million to a competitive professional athlete.
A few recent contracts stand out in my mind as possible benchmarks for Swisher. The first is Jayson Werth‘s $126 million deal. Werth’s contract left me stunned and aghast. After a history of injuries longer than my arm, Werth managed to put together three solid seasons in Philadelphia (only two of which were injury free) and flip those into a seven year mega payout. The deal was eyebrow raising at the time, especially since Werth was turning 32, and after a miserable first season in Washington the next six years seem potentially laughable.
Carl Crawford‘s execrable $142 million contract from the Red Sox also comes to mind. Readers of the old Yankeeist site know that I was vehemently against Crawford’s contract. Its not that I thought Crawford was bad, just that I thought he was incredibly overrated for a player who has a career .333 OBP. He’s certainly better than his first season in Boston but there is no way this contract finishes as anything other than an epic overpay.
Crawford and Werth were both younger than Swisher will be when they signed their deals, and both were playing a bit better than Swisher has over the last few seasons, but with teams like the Marlins and Nationals seeming desperate to waste large sums of money anything is possible. My prediction is that Swisher will go the way of Johnny Damon. As good as Swisher is, his position and most of his production are replaceable on the veteran market. I see the Yankees offering Swisher a deal that is at best fair, and possibly somewhat below market value to see if he’ll accept it to stay in New York. The problem is that while I don’t know who it will be, in my bones I believe some idiot team looking to make a splash quickly will offer him $80 – $100 million over five years, which the Yankees would be stupid to match.
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11 Responses to Nick Swisher’s cost?
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TIQ IQ
Yeah. I think the Yankees will offer Swisher a four year $60 million deal but somebody will offer him 5 years $90 million.
Good analysis. It also follows that the free agent signed by the Yanks for less money than Swisher gets won’t be as good as Swisher. The 2014 Yanks won’t be the Bombers we’re accustomed to. ARod, Jeter, & Teix will have aged. Cano and Granderson are likely to drop a bit due to regression to the mean. Martin may not be resigned. The 2014 Yanks will hopefully compete via outstanding pitching, but not that much else.
Swisher is not worth more than 2 years at $10M per year, what the Yanks should offer him if he has a solid 2012.
1. He’s too old and not a good enough outfielder to get three or more years.
2. He can’t hit for average thus is worthless if he can’t hit for power.
3. Melky Cabrera is all-around better than him in age, speed, stolen base ability, range, arm, and defense. He’s totally better than Swisher if he keeps hitting for power and average even if his OBP is less than Swisher’s. Imagine if Cabrera was the 2011 Yanks RF, Swisher the DH, Posada released. The 2011 Yanks would’ve had that extra bat to overcome Detroit in the ALDS.
4. Swisher is not a first-tier player. He could never be “the man” for anyone. Giving him 4 or 5 years at $15M or more per year is telling him he’s the man. Preposterous as history hasn’t shown he’s that.
5. Swisher’s early 2011. That’s a red flag. What if he didn’t rebound from it? What if he sucks to start 2013 and stays sucking?
6. If Andruw Jones has a 2011-like 2012 or a little better, he is perfectly capable of being a serviceable one-year stopgap everyday RF/platoon RF for say $3M base ($1M raise) for 2013. Ten Gold Gloves, 400+ HR, and while no longer a kid for many years, still nowhere close to being ancient.
7. The Yanks need to free up money to lock up Cano and possibly Granderson.
8. Swisher’s RBI totals are a direct by-product of being a middle to bottom of the order hitter for the Yankees. If he signs elsewhere for big money, he will bat third, fourth, or fifth and be expected to produce like it. When has he ever been that kind of player and what makes you (whoever “you” may be) think he can be that when he wasn’t that in his 20s/prime years? If he continues to bat sixth and seventh with an occasional start in the second slot with his new team, he will not equal or better his RBI totals as such with the Yanks cuz he won’t be in a lineup which has Jeter, A-Rod, Teixiera, Cano etc.
9. Swisher is one injury or devastating postseason misplay away from being a DH.
10. I saved this one for last. Swisher has produced what he has for the Yanks because he’s comfortable with them and that comfort has made him the player he is today: a solid second-line attack man. If he signs with say Toronto, he will get a rude awakening. No more Swish. No more RF Bleacher Creatures chanting his name. No more NY spotlight and all it brings, and yeah, he must love it and why not? What’s wrong with loving it? It must feel great to walk down any NYC street or be in any NYC restaurant and have people yell your name, thank you, compliment you, tell you what you mean to them/their kid/s etc. If he sucks, Blue Jays fans will be worse than booers, they’ll just be indifferent. Ditto for fans of most teams. Red Sox fans would eat him alive.
If Swisher has a solid 2012 and was smart, he’d take a cue from Paul O’Neill and re-sign for below market value to remain a Yankee. I doubt the Yanks are moving A-Rod to DH after this season (as much as I want them to), so that means there’s an opening for 2013 DH Swisher would be perfect for.
I hope that you aren’t completely serious, because I honestly can’t tell. Half of the points were understandable but half of them are just head-scratchers.
1) Say what? General assumption much? You can’t predict aging accurately.
2) Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Pena and company would like to say otherwise. So would Rob Deer.
3) Melky Cabrera? Really? If you walked into a room of baseball analysts and told them that in 2011 Melky Cabrera would outperform both Swisher and Posada they’d take you as someone who just escaped from a mental health institute.
6) And who do we have in 2014 from the minors? Jorge Soler? None of the high-ceiling OF in the minors are slated for AA, if I recall correctly.
9) And who isn’t?
It’s hard to envision a scenario (short of a surprise Jeter/A-Rod retirement) in which the Yankees keep Swisher, Cano, and Granderson while adhering to the austerity budget. For that to happen, one or more of those guys would have to take below-market offers to stay in NY. I don’t see Cano doing that, though Granderson or Swisher might.
no Yankee fan in his right mind should complain about a team that will be competing with only a $189 million budget.
I’m in my right mind and I’m complaining about it. It’s not the amount of payroll or even the fact that 189MM will likely be at or close to the top of the league. The Yankees can turn a massive profit at their current payroll. I understand why the Steinbrenners want to make tens of millions more dollars. I might even do the same thing if I were in their position.
As a fan who wants to see the best Yankee team I can, I am against artificially limiting payroll.
Lets not forget Swisher has a 0.00 ERA with a strikeout. That’s gotta count for something.
I also think of Swisher’s personality….he does make a ton of money but he’s not an Arod or superstar that expects to make mega money…i think he’s comfortable in NY, he knows the team the fans, everyone likes him and he’s the joker in the clubhouse, i think he realizes this is, is humble and takes a below the market deal knowing where he’s gonna be for the next couple of years, a good situation.
biggest challenge is not to compare yourself to someone really stupid. Just because X decides to overpay for a house doesn’t mean I have to, even if the broker says “but look at the comps!”. Throw our Crawford, Werth, Wells, Rios and all the other stupid deals. Throw out each point of WAR is worth $4.5M – that’s only because of the stupid deals. The only question is if you don’t re-sign Swisher, who do you replace him with? How soon will guys like Santana, Flores and Williams be ready? The goal shouldn’t be to load up on more 30+ guys, it should be to replace them. So, in truth, unless guys like Swish and Grandy want to sign short extensions (by that I mean 2 years, maybe 2 with an option), we should let them go and replace them with young (cheap) guys. Same thing for the rotation.
I think you are overestimating Nick Swisher’s market. You can’t use the Crawford and Werth contracts as comps. They were vast overpays and in the case of Werth, everyone but the Nationals realized it. And while we may not view Werth as a star player, he was a player on the rise. He finished 2010 as a 5+ WAR player with a .921 OPS, a top 10 MVP showing, and is a great fielding outfielder.
Swisher might be worth $16 million today but I don’t think he’s getting that on a long term contract. Given his age, lack of star power, and the ability to find productive outfielders for much cheaper, I’d be really surprised if he gets more than 4 years and $60 million, and I think that would probably be a bit of a overpay.
I don’t expect the Yankees to really try to retain him. I think he likes being a Yankee so much that he would take less to stay. I just can’t picture them even giving him a 3 year, $39 million contract given the desire to keep Cano and Granderson. I guess if it became clear that they wouldn’t be able to keep Granderson, they could try to keep Swisher instead but it would still only work if his demands were very reasonable.
I do believe some team is going to offer him 5 years. It gets proven time and time again, in all sports, that teams just can’t help themselves. Someone is going to need an outfielder, will overbid themselves, and walk out with Swisher getting really good money. He can’t say no to a deal like that if he gets one, no one should.
The obvious best case scenario is that both Swisher and Granderson go, that way you get out of the decline years. But there are very few options for that in FA, and out minor league guys are 3 years away at least. So unless we are trading Manny for a left or center fielder with pop, then I’m not sure what you do. I’d consider all options though, because I think extending Granderson would be the mistake. Swisher would likely be an overpay of some kind, but I don’t see him going down hill in value as hard or quickly as I do Granderson.
A guy I wouldnKt mind trying to trade for is Chris Young. He could play LF or CF, povides speed and pop, and he’s still youngh and under a decent contract. He could probably play RF if you wanted to keep Granderson.