Before this offseason was dominated by big name pitchers, the Yankee fan base was most excited about the upgrade at DH. Jorge Posada and his negative WAR were about to be replaced by the future allstar, Jesus Montero. Indeed, the change would have been immense based on ZiPS’ .271/.333/.486 triple slash and an a 112 OPS+. With Andruw Jones and now Raul Ibanez signed, it looks like the team has found its replacement for Montero in 2012. The DH position might take up two roster spots, but the Ibanez/Jones platoon may perform better in 2012 than Montero would have.
Can Ibanez stop his decline at 40 years old?
The plan, of course, is to play Andruw Jones against left-handed pitchers, and Raul Ibanez against right-handed pitchers. In 2011, facing lefties, Jones hit .286/.384/.540, 144 OPS+ with eight homeruns. Facing righties, Ibanez hit .256/.307/.440, 100 OPS+ with 16 homeruns. Combined, the duo would have spotted .263/.326/.464 with 24 homeruns. While this is slightly worse than the projections for Montero, I suspect that Ibanez will have more luck hitting righties with the short leftfield porch. Yesterday, Matt wrote about a possible park factor affecting Ibanez and he found a spike of five more homeruns. In this case, we’re talking about expecting nearly 30 homeruns from this position, something that would be hard to pin on Montero in his first full season.
From the other perspective, Jones and Ibanez are aging players, with little value on the field, and declining numbers. On Monday, William talked about Ibanez’s numbers against righties, which were the lowest of his career in 2011. Such a drop in numbers is typical for a player turning 40, an age where numbers don’t typically rebound. Neither player adds much value on the field either, both are below average in the corner outfield spots.
Going into the future, Montero certainly has higher potential, but there is still reason to be excited about an Ibanez/Jones DH, especially when you compare to last year. Assuming there is a problem, Cashman has invited a plethora of backups and saved enough money to ensure that the position won’t be occupied with a negative WAR player like last year. Though it’s hard to replace a player like Montero, Ibanez and Jones could end up with better numbers in 2012 and that’s something to be excited about.
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One Response to The Ibanez/Jones DH v. The Montero DH
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TIQ IQ
I did not vote in your electronic vote box but I would predict that the platoon will out stat Montero. However, I would prfer a single DH rather than a platoon due to what you mentioned about the wasted roster spot. Secondly, you also have to go through the trouble of finding that duo every year, endlessly, if you choose the non-permanent DH route. I think Montero will not hit his stride till 2013 and will out hit 2 aged platoons. I believe in using a pure hitter as a DH as Big Pupi, Paul Molitor, Chili Davis, Edgar Martinez, a guy named Matsui never really hurt their teams by using up a roster spot simply for a DH. You guys are the micro stat guys….why not collect data on teams that won WS titles that used permanent DH pure hitters. Except for Edgar, all the players I named won multiple WS titles playing predominantly as DH. I like the Pineda deal, I’m just commenting on all the guys saying that Montero being a permanent DH type was a bad thing. Well, 8-10 teams won it all in the last 20 years, including the Yankess. So what % of teams use a permanent DH, one guy in 80% of DH at bats and how many teams used multiples…and how many won the WS?