We’re finally days away from Spring Training. Soon enough, the waiting will be over and we’ll be able to watch REAL LIVE BASEBALL (shameless plug time: if you’re in the NYC metro area, you should totally come to this). But, before we get to that, let’s take another look at some run scoring projections via the Lineup Analysis tool from Baseball Musings. This time, we’ll be using Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA Projections. Remember, these are NOT split adjusted. I’ll run it a few times, using a few different scenarios for the designated hitter. And with the first run of each one, I’ll be sure to plug in what the lineup probably will be, not what I think it should be. To the after-jump we go.
Scenario 1: Russell Branyan as the DH
Derek Jeter (.348 OBP./.382 SLG)
Curtis Granderson (.341/.481)
Mark Teixeira (.369/.503)
Alex Rodriguez (.370/.509…love this projection)
Robinson Cano (.342/.482…a little light)
Nick Swisher (.357/.449)
Russell Branyan (.328/.472)
Russell Martin (.361/.401)
Brett Gardner (.353/.368)
That lineup would score 5.444 runs per game, which translates to about 882 runs over a full season. The best configuration of these players would be: Martin/Rodriguez/Swisher/Cano/Tex/Branyan/Gradnerson/Jeter/Gardner. That would amount to 5.511 runs per game, about 893 in a full year.
Our second scenario will assume Andruw Jones (.317/.412) as the full time DH (which he, nor Branyan for that matter, likely wouldn’t be. Remember, these projections are NOT split adjusted). Using Jones in the 7th spot nets us 5.357 runs per game, 868 over the full season, a little off the Branyan pace. The best configuration of a Jones-inclusive lineup would be: Martin/Tex/Gardner/Rodriguez/Swisher/Cano/Jones/Jeter, which would mean 5.443 R/G (882 per 162).
Our last two scenarios are the ones that are most likely. These ones include Johnny Damon (.328/.383) and Raul Ibanez (.315/.424) as the DHs, batting out of the 7th spot. Using Damon, we get a result of 5.340 R/G (866). The best lineup with Damon in it (5.432 R/G, 880 runs) would be: Martin/Tex/Gardner/Rodriguez/Swisher/Granderson/Cano/Damon/Jeter.
If we use Ibanez, we get 5.368 runs per game (870 per season). The best Ibanez-inclusive lineup (5.450/883) would be: Martin/Tex/Gardner/Rodriguez/Swisher/Granderson/Cano/Ibanez/Jeter.
Funny in that three out of the four “best” lineups, Jeter’s batting ninth. Anyway, that’s neither here nor there because it seems like no matter what, the Yankees are going to score their runs, and we could argue that these are pessimistic because this doesn’t assume splits.
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2 Responses to PECOTA run scoring projections
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TIQ IQ
Conclusive proof that Russell Branyan would score at least one thousandth more runs per game than any other available option!
As you say, there aren’t splits built into Pecota, and Pecota kinda sucks, but I still think Branyan is the way to go, just not because of the data shown here.
The only problem with Branyan is his back. Those injuries are always concerning in the long term, and usually don’t go away after one season. I didn’t watch him play much last season but I’ve heard he looked nothing like himself. If he truly can’t recover from the back he could be our next Richie Sexson. I like bringing him in to ST on a minor league deal, but I’d still like to have competition with him and Ibanez.