Brett Gardner is a player who’s always been a bit hard to pin down. When he first came up in 2008, he flashed great defense and speed. His minor league track record also showed a player who was patient and prone to adjusting, even if it took a bit of time at each level. Then, in 2009, he had some success. He stole 26 bases, had a respectable batting average, and walked 9.2% of the time he came up to the plate. Predictably, he also fielded well. Despite that improvement, I had some questions. While Gardner’s prowess on the basepaths and in left field were hardly in question, I wondered, both publicly and privately, if he could sustain his success. After all, he was a low power guy and I thought that pitchers would be unafraid to challenge him, realizing that if they did, the worst that would happen would be a single. This, of course, would negate Gardner’s best attribute at the dish: his plate discipline.
Then came 2010, when Gardner “broke out.” He didn’t hit for any sort of power, but he walked 13.9% of the time and showed himself to be an undoubtedly elite defender. It seemed that the potential we saw in 2009 was real. Gardner proved he could be an above average hitter, even if his offensive is driven mostly by his on-base ability. His pairing of average to slightly better offense and fantastic defense has provided the Yankees with incredible value over the last two seasons, even if there was a bit of a step back for Gardner on offense in 2011.
Yesterday, Mike E mused about whether or not trading Gardner would be a good idea. He ended his piece by saying this:
I truly believe he’d be one of the best fielding centerfielders and best leadoff hitters, but if the Yankees are still convincing themselves he should be hitting in the nine-slot playing left field, I’m willing to say goodbye.
I definitely agree that I think Gardner could be a solid center fielder and having the conversation about switching his position with Curtis Granderson‘s is worth having. In fact, SG at RLYW tackled this issue back in October. But, I’ll disagree with Mike in saying that if Gardner doesn’t get moved to CF, it’s better off that he’s traded.
Gardner probably still has some room to grow offensively, but in any trade that would send him out of the Bronx, he would not be a centerpiece. Rather, he’d be one of the extra pieces. Because of that, I think his value to the team is better as the left fielder and (sometimes) leadoff hitter. The Yankees have an asset in Brett Gardner, and need to deploy him properly.
In 2009, Gardner showed that he could hit lefties, sporting a .350 wOBA (.316 wOBA vs. RHP that year). However, since then, his wOBA vs. LHP has dropped. It was at .332 in 2010 and .290 in 2011 (102 wRC+ and 75 wRC+ respectively). For comparison’s sake, he wOBA/wRC+’d .351/115 and .328/101 against righties in 2010 and 2011 respectively. I should note, though, that his low numbers against lefties in 2011 were mostly driven by a complete lack of power (.272 SLG; .039 Iso) despite a solid OBP (.344) and walk rate (12.9%). While Gardner’s walk tool is not neutralized against lefties, the Yankees have a much better lefty-masher on the roster in Andruw Jones and he needs to be in there against lefties. It’s not as much a slight on Gardner as it is a promotion of Jones. Of course, Gardner can always come in for defensive purposes in the late innings. But, when a lefty is on the hill, Jones needs to be out in left. This is magnified in the A.L. East, considering the staggering amount of talented left handed starters, like David Price, Matt Moore, Ricky Romero, and Jon Lester.
Against right handed pitching, though, Brett Gardner needs to be the leadoff hitter. He has the combination of plate discipline and speed that makes a leadoff hitter good. If he is used that way, and continues to play outstanding defense, he is valuable to the Yankees–more valuable than he would be in a trade.
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6 Responses to Properly deploying Gardner
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TIQ IQ
And yet, Gardner kind of owns Romero, with a .636 OBP against him. Probably want to leave him in against that tough lefty.
I wonder if this is the season Jeter finally falls out of the top of the lineup? It would be best against righties to have Gardy at the top like you pointed out, and Jeter could still bat lead-off against lefties.
Well, as I’ve detailed in many previous comments I think there is quite a bit of excessive optimism among Yankee fans about Gardner’s abilities as a hitter. My interpretation of his career numbers is that they show slightly above to slightly below average offensive production. Clearly if Gardner has more years like 2010 I will have been too pessimistic about him.
But Gardner’s 2011 season looked a lot more like his 2009 season than his 2010 season so that’s what he have to go on right now. He failed to sustain the spike in BABIP and BB% he experienced in 2010 and my subjective evaluation from watching him play is that it was much more a case of pitchers and defenses adjusting to him combined with natural regression toward his actual abilities than it was bad luck.
I do agree with your assessment of his trade value – he’s worth more to the Yankees if they keep him than he would be in terms of what he would bring back in a trade. And I also agree that he should bat first against RHP (sorry Derek – go cry on Minka’s shoulder).
As long as Gardner continues to provide plus defense, I think he’s acceptable as a league-average only bat. It’s also worth noting that, for whatever reason, LF offense plummeted last year. If that trend continues, Gardner’s offense looks even better.
As for trading him, it all depends on the available market. If Gardner is valued based on a slightly above average hitting center fielder, he’s worth keeping. I feel that many GM’s may be offering a lot for that WAR he’s posting, in which case I would put Gardner on the market. I love watching him, but we agree he can be utilized better, and that might draw more value in a trade.
I hate proposing trades, but would you consider a Matt Garza for Brett Gardner trade? Based on WAR, the Yankees would probably lose in that trade, but non-sabermetrically it would appear as a huge win for the Yankees. Who knows if that would be an option, but thats the type of value I would target in return for Gardner.
Well if Gardner is traded for Garza even up (Theo is not going to do that but let’s go with it for now) then who plays LF? I’m not Gardner’s biggest booster and I don’t buy those fWAR numbers but the simple fact is that the Yankees have no ready replacement for him in LF.
Is a team with Jones/Dickerson in LF and Garza in the rotation and one of Garcia/Hughes or AJ bumped better than one with Gardner/Jones in LF and Nova as the #2 starter? Good question, but I doubt the deal would happen so it’s probably moot.