As I write this (8:40 PM on Wednesday night) it looks very unlikely that the Yankees are going to get Yu Darvish. We’ve also heard relatively little on the trade front except that the prices of two Yankee target–John Danks and Gio Gonzalez–are exorbitant. The White Sox wanted TWO of Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances for Danks (lol) and the A’s apparently asked the Marlins for Mike Stanton in return for Gonzalez. Until those trade prices come down, the Yankees are going to have to look to the free agent market to patch up their rotation.
Yes, at this point, it should be clear that they need to do that. I like the Freddy Garcia signing, but will lightning strike twice? Granted, with Garcia, lightning doesn’t need to strike twice. If he can throw 150+ innings while racking up a low to mid 4′s ERA, I’ll be happy. The back end of the rotation really isn’t the Yankees’ problem, is it? They have Garcia to eat some innings and Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett do have potential. The front of the rotation presents a bit of a problem. CC Sabathia is obviously awesome, but the step down from him to the rest of the rotation isn’t great. Ivan Nova could improve off of last year, but I’m still not sold on it. So what can the Yankees do? Well, the options have certainly dwindled. C.J. Wilson is an Angel and Mark Buehrle is a Marlin. The non-tender lists offer nothing of use (please don’t say Joe Saunders. I will ban you from commenting if you do. I’m just kidding. But seriously, don’t bring him up.). The only two options that are remotely desirable, then, are Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson.
I’ve written about Oswalt and Jackson before and talked about both of them as fall back options. Well, we’re at the point where we could be turning to fall back options.
The markets for both pitchers have been damn near silent and that’s got to help the Yankees. There are pros and cons to each pitcher. Oswalt is old and has a bad back; he’s also never pitched in the American League. Jackson has semi-frequent homer and fly ball issues. However, he’s improved his walk rate over the last few years and has had back to back years of better-than-average FIP and xFIP marks. Jackson has also pitched at least 180 innings each of the last four seasons. Oswalt offers a bit of upside even if he is old. His performance has been solid every year and 2011 was the first year he pitched under 180 innings since his rookie year.
Of course, all of this depends on cost and length of contract. Oswalt said earlier this month that he’s looking for a three year deal. He won’t get that from the Yankees. We’ve heard almost nothing on Jackson. For Oswalt, I might be willing to discuss a two year deal, maybe 2/$24M, but I’d prefer to overpay on a one year deal. For Jackson, I think the max is 3/36, though I’d aim for 3/33, maybe with a club option for a fourth year.
In both Oswalt and Jackson, there is enough good to be interested. But, perhaps, there are enough dobuts to pass. While I won’t go home kicking and screaming if the Yankees don’t sign either one of these guys (and I won’t necessarily be skipping home delightedly if they do sign either one), I’m fearing that adding anyone but these guys (or Darvish or a trade option) will not do nearly enough to significantly improve the Yankee rotation.
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17 Responses to The two guys no one’s talking about
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TIQ IQ
Kuroda?
I’d be fine with Kuroda and Jackson getting 2Y/24M and 3Y/35M. Certainly better than going five or more years for Wilson and dropping $100M or more (including posting) on Darvish.
I’m not too keen on Jackson. I’d prefer Oswalt on a 1 yr deal loaded with incentives but I guess he’s looking for more years so maybe Jackson makes sense after all unless the price drops on guys like Danks and Gonzalez.
Is Jackson really going to settle for 3 years at 11 million a year? Even Buehlre got 4 years at 14 million per, Jackson is considerably younger than Mark and has basically thrown 200 or more innings in 3 straight seasons. With Boras as his agent I think he is going to find 4 years from someone, at a rate much closer to Buehlre’s 14 than 11.
I didn’t include him because we’ve discussed him quite a bit.
A good article. I’d like to see Oswalt for 2 yrs if we could do that. The way I look at all of these guys is whether I would be comfortable with him starting a playoff game, and for him that is a definite “Yes!”.
I hope they do something. This new austerity plan is making them about as exciting to root for as the Pittsburgh Pirates would be.
I would be quite upset if we offered Oswalt a 2 year deal. He’ll be 35 in August and his back is completely shot, to expect him to hold up in a new league now would be a giant gamble. To expect his back to become anything but worse by age 36 would be foolish, and better against time and nature. His K/9 and fastball velocity were at all time lows last year, with his back the way it is the velocity isn’t likely to bounce back and coming to the AL should only drop his K/9 even more.
I see this ending as badly as Smoltz to the Red Sox, only for different reasons.
Of these 2, my preference is Oswalt on as short a contract as possible (1 yr w/a team option?). I’d prefer Kuroda over either, but as with you Matt, I’m not cheering or crying if any of them are signed or not. I’m hopefull what they’ve got currently can hold down the fort until either the trade deadline approaches or one of the AAA arms is ready to contribute.
I completely agree with the opinions shared in this article. those are the only two guys out there that would be a decent enough replacement to bother with signing, yet if we don’t get them i wouldnt panic… (and if we did sign one of them I wouldn’t exactly be calling it a season-maker)
I would very much prefer Oswalt on a one year prove it deal. A lot of things have to fall into place in order for that to happen, mainly, a market not developing for Oswalt which doesnt seem likely.
I like the idea of EJax on a 3 year deal depending on the money. No one seems to be talking about him at all which indicated the money might not be all that high. Problem with signing EJax is that it depends on how much you believe in Hughes. If you believe that Hughes can be a very good pitcher like he was to start the 2010 season than there is no reason sign EJax. I am skeptical we will see the Hughes from pre All Star Break 2010 again. Edwin Jackson is more of a number3 pitcher who would then become our number 2. Nova would be the 3 pitcher, and Hughes, Burnett, and Garcia round out the rotation.
Either way not bad for this year as long as they keep on trying to improve. I just hope they don’t use Burnett, Garcia, Hughes, or even Nova as a reason why they arent calling up a major league ready arm like Noesi, Warren, and Phelps.
I’m staying away from Oswalt and that back altogether unless he takes a 1 year deal, with a low base salary, and lots of incentives. There is no chance of him doing that so I would hate for the Yanks to sign him.
Back injuries like Oswalt’s are chronic and they aren’t just going to go away over the offseason. You’d have to worry about, and doctor him all year just to keep him on the field. Add that to the fact that he has never pitched in the AL before and I don’t see it ending very well.
I’d rather Oswalt sign with the Red Sox. At least then when he falls apart it will be on a competitors watch, not ours.
Your right on Oswalt. He probably wouldn’t accept a 1 year deal. After thinking about it a bit, since we’ve basically lost out on Darvish, I think a one year deal with Kuruda would be best. He has shown that hes willing to play for a one year deal, wouldn’t object to playing on the east cost, throws nearly 200 innings a year, doesn’t walk many guys, and can keep the ball in the park. I would prefer no multiple deals handed out now that Darvish and Wilson are off the board. Anyone else will just get in the way of a prospect or prevent the Yankees from upgrading in a stronger FA class.
Bartolo the Bonanza Colon, also good for 150 innings.
Please stay away from Oswalt & Jackson.
Go get a righty and lefty:
Lefty: If Danks doesn´t work, try Niese, if that doesn´t work then W. Rodriguez.
Righty: Felix won´t work (I asume); so inquire on Greinke or Garza, if that doesn´t work get Kuroda.
Just bite the bullet and go with AJ or call up the young guns. Don’t need anymore bad contracts as there has been a ton of them over the years!
I’d take Oswalt. 2 yr., $18MM tops. The NYY SP would be CC, Nova, AJ, Oswalt, Garcia. CC and Nova basically are locks.
Unless they get Darvish (not likely) or “Steal” a true number 2 or better, (also not likely) I hope they stand pat. As I see it, if someone falters or gets hurt, we still have Noesi If he doesn’t make the rotation out of spring training), Betances, Banuelos and several other young pitchers just aching for a shot at the Major league level. It seems like all three of Noesi, Betances and Banuelos have the makeup, moxey or whatever else it takes to be cool at the MLB level and in New York. I suspect we’re going to enjoy watching these guys pitch for the Yankees in the not too distant future anyway, so give them some experience if you need to make any moves during the season. Can’t wait to see them pitch in meaningful MLB games…including playoff games!