The posting process for Yu Darvish started today. Teams will have through Sunday to submit sealed bids. Early next week, the bid that his team accepts (the highest bid, except in some circumstances) will be made public, and that team will have 30 days to negotiate with Darvish.
The Yankees are playing coy. Of course they are. Bluffing is going to be a big part of the bidding process. I can’t imagine that the Yankees won’t at least put a substantial bid in. They might not go all-in, but they will at least make a bet. Anything they are saying publicly about Darvish is an attempt to drive the bidding price down.
So, what’s your bet? How much do you bid for Darvish?
I’m willing to bid $55 million.
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41 Responses to The Darvish Lottery Has Begun
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I’d say about $40 million. The Yanks can certainly afford to bid 55, 75, 100, whatever, but I feel like I’ve been hearing that the bidding shouldn’t be as ridiculous as it was for Dice-K.
I think the winning bid will be around 55 million, it just won’t be us.
Right now I think the Rangers will win.
All in. 60.
They’ll be placing a bid, saying they don’t know if they will is just silly, of course they will. That being said I have never gotten the feeling that they are as all in on Darvish as the Yankee community at large has. It seems most people associated with the Yanks see Darvish as the Yankees number 1 pitching target this winter, I just don’t think that is true. Because of that I ultimately don’t see us winning this bidding.
I have no money in this game so I won’t post what I would bid, I haven’t scouted the guy to know how much I would personally bid. I will however say what I THINK the Yankees will bid.
I think the Yankees will bid 35 million, they won’t exceed 40 million on someone they like but aren’t nuts about.
Bravo! I agree with just about everything you said. As fans, we really have no feel for what he might actually do in the majors. He’s obviously an intriguing talent. Cashman obviously will have much greater information and ability to evaluate his potential but even then there is a lot of guesswork. I scratch my head when people say there’s much less risk with Darvish.
I’ve also been thinking that $35 million is the maximum they’d go. You got there based on the Matsuzaka bid. I’m just thinking that I can’t see them paying a combined $20 million per year in salary and pro-rated posting bid for a guy who has never pitched in the majors. If they aren’t that excited by him, I could see them bidding much less.
If I had to guess where he ends up, it would be the Nationals or Marlins. They are the teams that seem the most aggressive (or reckless IMO) in offers these days.
Darvish has less risk than Daisuke in my opinion, but honestly how much risk is that. outside of that first year Daisuke was pretty bad, so even if he has or three or four 3 WAR seasons he will have been better than Dice-K. That bar isn’t all that high. That’s really just a number 3 starter.
I think the Rangers and Nationals are both good guesses. The Marlins were trying hard for Wilson, and the Nationals have yet to make a stupid singing yet. I’m going with the Rangers, but I could see it being the Nats or Marlins easily.
Depending on how much clout Bobby V has I could see it being the Red Sox. He’s said Darvish is the greatest pitcher he’s ever seen, which is really insulting to Nolan Ryan, but whatever.
I bid $10. I’m kind of short this week.
I got $5.50, I think if we pool our resources we can land the big man.
As Dr. Evil might say, one MILLION dollars. Seriously, the winning bid will be around $60 MM. I don’t know whether it will be worth it, but if you want him, that’s what it will cost.
We knew the Yankees had a lot of interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka and yet they only bid 33 million for him back in 06, so I have a hard time seeing them go too much further over that this time around.
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They played chicken all year with a patchwork rotation and somehow won out. I don’t want to see a repeat…they are the richest franchise in baseball and should bit
accordingly…60 million, but that’s easy for me to say- not my money
agreed–posting is the one area where the yankees can flaunt their money without any real repercussions (no luxury tax,etc), why not just do 60 or 65? i get its not my money but i love this guy and think he’s a risk worth taking. he’s a better “prospect” than Daisuke, Igawa, Irabu, Nomo, any other japanese pitcher thats come to MLB. I actually think this might have been Cash’s play all along bc he knows pitching is the one weakness, he didn’t even make offers to the top 2 guys on the FA market, but last year he made an offer to crawford to drive the price up for the sox. i think he’s decided (I dream) that darvish is his guy and he’s gonna go all in.
I would be surprised if the bid exceeds what Matsuzaka got at least in the bidding process. I think teams might be a little more conservative just because Matsuzaka did not turn out to be some amazing front line ace.
I’ll guess that the winning bid will be $75M. (I know that’s not the question that was asked.) Having the posting come immediately after the frantic activity at the winter meetings, I’m thinking that some team(s) will overbid to get Darvish.
If you’re right I hope it’s not us! That would be a crazy overbid, 24 million more than the Red Sox bid for Daisuke even.
I do think you are right about some team, like the Rangers, going all out and bidding 50-60 million though.
$60 million. All in. Then whatever contract is necessary.
If the team’s goal is to get the payroll under $189 million for 2014 to avoid luxury tax penalties, Darvish is the ideal signing. While the overall investment is very expensive, only about $10-12 million per year will be added to the payroll. Working under the assumption that they will keep the payroll down, they will save much more than $60 million that they could spend on players these next 3 years, and that covers the posting fee. Essentially, you can disregard the posting fee, seeing as it won’t penalize them and they can certainly afford it. No pitcher will offer as much potential bang for the buck as Darvish, and our prospects are still a crapshoot.
I think the Yankees will go pretty much all in with a little over $60MM for the posting and then realizing it will take a $10 to $11MM per on a 6 year deal.
Yankees have shown almost a complete lack of interest in any of the FA pitchers or any of the possible trade names that have been bandied around. I also think if the Yankees are intent on trying to get under the $189MM tax threshold by 2014 this may be one of the better opportunities they have to add potentially a “premier” pitcher and only have about $10MM or so effect the luxury tax. I also think if they get Darvish it give the Yankees an added chance/opportunity or something to try and move AJ sooner rather than later.
I honestly think the Yankees have more interest in Gio Gonzalez than they do in Darvish, and Gio would be cheaper over the next 3-4 years than Darvish.
I’d be a lot more surprised if we bid 60 on Darvish than if we made a big trade for Gio/Latos.
If the Yanks get Darvish they don’t have to trade any top prospects for Gio or Latos.
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They could get Darvish and still pull off a blockbuster trade.
Obviously. However I simply don’t think they have this much interest in Darvish. I think everyone around the blogging community is transferring their love of the idea of signing Darvish onto the Yankees.
I think it’s much more likely they trade for someone like Gio or Latos than it is they sign Darvish.
I just don’t see them bidding that much more than they did for Daisuke, and they only bid 33 million for Matsuzaka.
You could be right, but it all just depends on how much the Yanks like him.
We (the fans) are just bathing in hype right now. We’re weighing the pros and cons but we just don’t have a very educated view on how he figures to perform. If the Yankees are sold on his talent and ability to pitch in the Major Leagues, I think the likelihood of a big bid increases significantly and surpasses the likelihood of denting the farm for Gio or Latos.
I could easily be wrong, I’ll be the first to say so if they bid 50+ million and get Darvish. I have no problem with that, I just haven’t felt the level of interest so many others are.
I would rather trade for a more proven young commodity who’s cheap than sign a complete unknown to a still decent sized contract. I love the upside of Latos and Gio, I think both can be top of the rotation guys for years to come. Latos is a guy who could be a possible ace, while Gio has the potential to be one of the best number 2′s in baseball.
It’s likely Darvish comes over and ends up being a 5-6 inning guy who posts ERA’s in the 4′s. I wouldn’t expect him to come over and just blow people away, being this awesome top of the rotation starter. He has a lot of adjusting to do even if he does eventually become great.
I like Latos and Gio a lot too, but the prices are just too steep in prospects – a commodity that the Yankees have a more limited supply of.
We don’t know that for sure. We have no idea what the asking price for Latos would be, and the moves by the Angels and possibly the Rangers if they get Darvish may make them more willing to deal.
I personally have no problem trading Montero in a deal for Latos who has a 3.57 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 3.56 xFIP career on the road in 244.1 IP.
Plus the Yankees could always involve a third team to make it more reasonable.
I’ll take either one to be honest.
I’m also tossing around in my mind the idea that the Angels even though they signed Wilson (being a lefty) if they might try and move Ervin Santana via a trade to free up some payroll. I know on the surface it might not make a lot of sense. But both Haren and Santana as it stands now if the Angles exercise their 2013 options for both players will be due pretty hefty raises in 2 years. Santana may never be worth more via a trade then he is right now. Just a thought that won’t seem to go away.
It would make no sense from where I’m sitting to go all in on Pujols and Wilson then turn around and dump Santana because of payroll.
The Angels are trying to win a WS this year, they have the best chance to do that with a rotation of Weaver, Haren, Wilson, and Santana.
What does Wilson being a lefty have to do with it?
Only that their rotation was top heavy with all right handed starters. May be now one of them becomes expendable with a quality lefty in the fold “if” they want to save a few million dollars. Besides I said it didn’t make a lot of sense in my earlier post just something that keeps popping up in my mind as a possibility.
Ahh, I understand now. But Wilson does help break those righties up, so going into a playoff series they can go 4 deep R, R, L, R.
Since you mentioned other trade options the Yankees might be interested in besides Darvish. If Kenny Williams ever comes down to earth about the value of Danks or Floyd I would expect the Yankees would have some interest in one of them as well.
They would have interest in Danks at the right price, but I would have a hard time seeing Floyd.
Latos and Gio just make the most sense, in my mind, because of their age and cost controlled nature of their contracts. I also think they have much more upside in their talent than Danks does. In my mind Danks is a number 3 on a championship rotation, Gio could be a dominant number 2 depending on how he handles the walks, and Latos could be an ace.
Danks having to be re-signed next year makes him less valuable on the trade market. Given that Buehrle got 4 years 58 million and Danks got 5 years 75 million I could see Danks getting 5 or 6 years at 14-15 million per easy. Which could be, and probably is, more than Darvish will sign for even.
I believe you meant to say Wilson BTW the initial report on the salary was later corrected to $77.5MM.
Don’t get me wrong I’d much rather have Gio or Latos also I was just throwing other possibilities out their that may present themselves sometime in the near future.
Yup, thanks for the catch. Danks on the brain.
If the Yankees like what they’ve seen from Darvish, I’d be willing to see them bid $70 million. I know I kind of hedged there, but if they don’t really like him that much in the first place, this discussion is kind of moot. $70 million is a ridiculous total even if they do like him, but the risk isn’t really that high compared to other pitchers.
Darvish’s actual contract is likely to be lower than Wilson’s and might not be that much more than Buehrle’s. The Yanks won’t have to trade prospects for him and they won’t have to forfeit a draft pick. They’ve scouted Darvish extensively and if they like him there is no reason to be out bid.
I don’t see Darvish as a savior or even someone that could step right into the rotation without some AAA time. I don’t know if I would bid what it would take to win the auction considering that he probably will be looking for big $$$ and years.
On Gio Gonzalez …
Consider these numbers from the past two seasons (from Fangraphs):
Name, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP-, xFIP-, WAR
Gio Gonzalez 8.23, 4.09, 0.72, 93, 94, 6.7
Edwin Jackson 7.24, 3.08, 0.81, 90, 93, 7.6
Gavin Floyd 7.15, 2.44, 0.83, 85, 90, 8.0
Jonathan Niese, 7.78, 2.89, 0.93, 98, 90, 4.5
Gio doesn’t look all that special to me. I don’t want Jackson but I would consider dealing for Floyd or Niese since they can probably be had a lot cheaper than Gio who is being chased by many teams. I don’t really want to put Montero, Baneulos or Brett Gardner in a trade for him.
I would try to get Danks, Floyd or Niese and perhaps take a 1 year, incentive-heavy flyer on Oswalt or a 1-2 year deal with Kuroda and buy time for Banuelos to develop rather than put up the $$$ for Darvish or trade top prospects for Gonzalez or Latos (whom I doubt the Padres would trade anyway).
I say ‘Just load up on Colon’, you’ll save money, won’t be so difficult to clear the trash, when a couple fellows emerge. You’ll have a fine display of cutting and winning for 150 inning. Add it up!
This may be a stupid question: but if the total contract is expected to be 100 million or so over 6 years, wouldnt the smart thing to do be to bid 90 million and then pay a 1 to 2 million amount salary each year on top of it? What am I missing? Why cannot virtually all of his salary come from the posting alone?
Brad, Darvish would have to agree to the deal aside from the team that accepts the posting fee. The team gets the posting fee, Darvish gets what the contract is assuming he agrees.
A team could effectively post a huge posting fee just to have rights to negotiate, but lowball Darvish knowing he’d never sign just to prevent everyone else from getting him, because if Darvish doesn’t agree to the contract, the money goest back to the mlb team.
Brad, I’m pretty sure that the way in which the posting system works is that the league and the team which darvish pitch for would receive all of the posting fee. Then, the team that won the rights to darvish would have the opportunity to sign him. If they cannot reach an agreement, the team that posted the next highest amount has a chance to sign him. The posting fee does not affect darvish’s salary, only how much a team pays for him.
Actually Matt you are mistaken. If the team with the highest bid doesn’t reach an agreement with Darvish he simply goes back to Japan. No other team gets a chance to sign him. You have to win the bid or you miss out altogether.
Matt/Jacob–Thanks for the information. I had it in my head that the posting fee went to the player also. Since it doesn’t, there goes that idea! Best, Brad
If I can interject a summation comment, the upshot is that it’ll take $110, 60 and 50 for five to get Yu. As sweet as his delivery looks, that’s too much, considering the 150 innings/year conditioning. Good, yes, but overpay by 2x?