I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I think I wrote more about Mark Teixeira in 2011 than I did about any other player. Unfortunately, most of what I wrote was about how disappointing a year Tex was having. My focus in those articles was how Tex’s underling skills–mainly his walk rate and his power levels–were just fine, but something was coming up just short causing his numbers to look worse than normal. The thing bringing him down was his low BABIP, which was caused by an obscenely high fly ball rate.
In 2007, Teixeira put up a career high .342 BABIP. Since then, it’s decreased each year (.316; .302; .268; .239). His line drive rates haven’t varied much, but since 2008, his ground ball rates have dropped as his fly ball rates have risen. While fly balls are more likely to go for extra bases, ground balls are more likely to go for hits in general, so that decrease is a bit concerning. What’s more concerning, though, is the rise in infield fly ball rate. This year, Tex had an 11.8% IFFB, the highest since an 11.1% mark in 2006. That’s the real problem. His HR/FB has been pretty steady, but the increase in infield fly balls could help contribute to the lack of BABIP.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter all that much if Tex hits for a shiny batting average. If he walks a lot and hits a lot of home runs, I’ll be happy. The problem is that if he keeps hitting into outs, whether by bad luck or dropping his shoulder a bit too much, it’s going to drag his OBP down, and no one wants to see that.
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3 Responses to Stats to watch for 2012: Mark Teixeira
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TIQ IQ
Tex is disappointing because we signed him to be a great border line HOF player. He hasn’t been that, but hes been a very good player. A big cog in the wheel of a successful franchise. The article is correct in that he needs to hit a high number of homers, have a much higher OBP than he had last year, and play his usual stellar defense over at first that bails out so many errant throws. I would like to see that .280 batting average return though. My only problem with him is where he hit in the order. Against lefties I think Tex should be hitting 4th, behind Cano and in front of ARod. Against righties, he should be hitting 6th, behind ARod and in front of Swisher.
I don’t think they will drop Jeter out of the top half of the lineup and Granderson should hit nowhere but 2nd in the order, so because of that Teixeira would hit no lower than 5th against RHP.
LHP:
Jeter, Granderson, Cano, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Swisher, Montero, Martin, Gardner
RHP:
Jeter, Granderson, Cano, Rodriguez, Teixeira, Swisher, Montero, Martin, Gardner
Just in my opinion those are the most effective lineup going into the season, understanding that Jeter has to hit 1 or 2.
Pops and don’t forget the lefty shift. He lined into several outs that deflated, as well. His experiment to hit it center and left, even if it reduces his power, the selectivity such imparts is the value we seek from him. Nothing like a hit when you need one.