The other day, I ran through some pitcher projections. Yesterday, I stumbled across this simple WAR calculator from Wahoo’s on First. Using that, let’s project the WARs (not doing any trades, so we can’t add ‘em up, you guys) and get nuts. For the appropriate projected numbers, I’ll use the 2012 ZiPS Projections. I’ll do the starting nine and go in position order. Remember, lower numbers for defense/base running are better in this system.
Russell Martin (2 Defense, 3 Base Running, .276 BABIP): 3.5 WAR
Mark Teixeira (3 D, 4 BR, .287 BABIP): 3.4 WAR
Robinson Cano (3 D, 4 BR, .309 BABIP): 4.3 WAR
Alex Rodriguez (3 D, 3 BR, .291 BABIP): 3.2 WAR (Only projected by ZiPS for 108 games and 405 AB)
Derek Jeter (5 D, 2 BR, .306 BABIP): 1.8 WAR (yikes)
Brett Gardner (1 D, 1 BR, .286 BABIP): 2.3 WAR
Curtis Granderson (4 D, 2 BR, .244 BABIP): 4.1 WAR
Nick Swisher (3 D, 4 BR, .295 BABIP): 2.9 WAR
Jesus Montero (0 D as DH, 4 BR, .297 BABIP): 1.3 WAR
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6 Responses to More WAR projections
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TIQ IQ
Some of these look low. For example, Gardner will be worth 2 wins just on defense. Tex, Swisher, Cano, Montero all look low.
Montero’s is low because his offense is good, not great and he gets knocked by the position adjustment. But, overall, I agree that the WARs are a little bearish.
So Russell Martin will be more valuable than Mark Teixeira next year?
Hmmmm.
It’s not completely unrealistic. Mark Teixeira posted a 3.2 WAR in 2010, while Martin posted a 3.1 WAR this year. If Martin builds off his first healthy season since 2009, and Teixeira has another 2010 like slump it COULD happen. It’s just not likely.
Oh, I agree. I’m just wondering what that says about Teixeira going forward (yeah, I know the 2009 flag will fly forever).
It says people don’t believe in his bounce back, but I take it with a grain of salt. Last year everyone had him projected as a bounce back guy along with Arod. At the end of the day projections are just educated guesses.
Teixeira posted a 4+ WAR this season, I could see him repeating this year before repeating 2009 again. He suffered from a couple of injuries in 2009 that limited his power, as well as that awful even for him start to the season.