If there’s ever a time when we can dream on trades, it’s now in the middle of November. There isn’t a ton of exciting news, but the GM Meetings are going on, so we can let our imaginations run wild. Yesterday, there was a fair amount of trade-proposal fodder. Let’s start with the biggest potential prize (and a personal favorite): Cole Hamels. *Author’s note: The Hamels portion of the show ran a little long, so we’re going to break this up with other players later*
Ken Rosenthal floated the idea out there yesterday:
Would the Phillies, for example, take left-hander Manny Banuelos or righty Dellin Betances plus shortstop Eduardo Nunez for Hamels? They certainly would be tempted.
Would the Yankees make such a deal? Not necessarily, considering that they would get Hamels at a high salary for only one year — and generally do not sign players to extensions before they reach free agency.
Um, Ken, are you sure about that one? I’m pretty sure the Yankees would do that as quickly as possible. Hell, if I were in charge, I’d say yes and volunteer to bring one of the B’s and Nunez to Philadelphia in a rickshaw. That package seems pretty small, especially compared to the projected one. To find a little balance, let’s run Hamels through the trade value calculator and see what we come up with. Using fWAR and contract data from Cot’s, I came up with a $35.4M of value, but that’s without a projection for 2012 or the value of free agent compensation. Adding both his projected salary of $14M, a conservative estimate of 4.0 fWAR, and the value of Type-A picks, we get $44.8M. To get an idea of what that means, we’ll borrow from here and here to see where the picks match up.
If we do Banuelos or Betances + Nunez, we don’t end up with nearly enough value. If we do the package from ESPN/BP, we come much closer. Assuming that Mason Williams makes it into the top 100 prospects for next year, here’s what we end up with:
Banuelos ($14.2) + Hector Noesi ($6.5) + Austin Romine ($11.1) + Williams ($11.1) = $42.9, which is pretty damn close to the TVC’s estimated value for Hamels. There’s no difference in value if we swap out Banuelos for Dellin Betances (but we should note that Betances’ value is probably down after last year).
In theory, the Yankees and Phillies match up for a trade. The Yankees (and every other team) could use a pitcher like Hamels, and the Phillies could use an infusion of young pitching with upside (Banuelos), proximity to the Majors and a solid floor (Noesi), as well as a hitter with a decent floor (Romine), and a young bat with great talent (Williams). That package definitely feels like a lot to give up, but if you want a pitcher of Hamels’ caliber, you’re going to have to give something up. Hamels is a young lefty who misses bats and generates groundballs. That sounds like a perfect fit for the Yankees. While it might hurt to part with those guys for just one guaranteed season of Hamels, I think I might pull the trigger on that deal (though I won’t hold my breath on Hamels being made available this Hot Stove Season).
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25 Responses to Thinking greedily about trades
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TIQ IQ
Maybe I’m in the minority, but I enjoy the uncertainty of watching our minor league players as they work their way up through the system. I know the team would be better in 2012 with Hamels on board, but I would prefer to observe Manny’s continued progression than give him up for one year of Hamels (even if he doesn’t ultimately turn out to be a front end of the rotation starter). In our never ending quest to better the team, I think we sometimes overlook other elements of being a fan. Seriously, it’s not just the winning (but don’t tell Hank that).
There should be very little else to being a fan than wanting to win. It would be incredibly silly to pass on Cole Hamels just because you want to watch a player grow in your system.
Would you really be happier watching Austin Jackson struggle last year over watching Granderson having an MVP type season?
I’d be on board for the ManBan-Noesi-Romine part of that proposed deal, Matt. But if there’s any way to keep Williams off the table, I would want to do that. I’d like to see Williams develop over the next year or 2.
If not Williams, what other guy do you think could be substituted as a 4th player?
Maybe another pitcher?
You think somebody from the Phelps-Warren-D.J. Mitchell trio would get it done? Or would they have to go to the higher-upside well of Stoneburner, Marshall, or Bryan Mitchell?
Using fWAR and contract data from Cot’s, I came up with a $35.4M of value, but that’s without a projection for 2012 or the value of free agent compensation. Adding both his projected salary of $14M, a conservative estimate of 4.0 fWAR, and the value of Type-A picks, we get $44.8M.
Can you explain how you got those dollar amounts? They seem like they’re too high.
The $14M comes from a projection from MLBTR. The 4.0 fWAR is more or less arbitrary on my part (average of his last three seasons), and the $44.8M comes from the TVC.
Matt,
That’s why your not the Yankee GM! And thank goodness for that. Regardless of your silly trade calculator, I do not trade our best young left handed prospect in Banuelos, Nunez our super utility guy with speed, Romine our up coming possible future starting catcher and Mason who has world talent in the OF for Cole Hammels with one year left. Especially when Man Ban may make Yankees staff this year and add in the fact that even though Cole has put up really good numbers and is a lefty, he is doing that in NL and I haven’t yet looked at his playoff stats but I do remember 2009 when he looked shot.
So NO to Matt’s idea of depleting the farm for a guy who is one year away from free agency and his name is not King Felix. LOL
The Yankee fan base is wildly overrating Nunez. He’s a super utility guy in that he can stand in a bunch of different positions. His fielding isn’t good and his bat is nothing special. Losing Romine would be annoying, but he’s not irreplaceable, especially with Montero and Martin in the fold. It would suck to lose Banuelos, but you’ve gotta give something to get something.
Matt,
I believe that you are underrating Nunez. The reason is his speed. Some of his “speed plays” last year were almost shocking. He is as fast as Gardner, IMHO. Again IMHO, it is Banuelos who is being overrated. He is a fine prospect, but he is small, young, and has never dominated at higher levels of minor league baseball. There have been hundreds of these guys. His chances of being as good as Hamels are maybe 5%.
What good is his speed if he can’t hit enough to get on base for his speed to matter? I’m not saying he’s a useless player, but I still don’t see the upside many like to talk about.
The upside would come from improving his walk rate. If he could just do that, the speed would come more into play. That strikes me as a fairly easy upside to reach.
To both your and Matt’s points, though, his speed is really his only positive asset. And when you’re a bench player, the opportunities to create value from that speed are fewer and farther between.
You have to evaluate players based on their whole skill set, and based off what we’ve seen from Nunez so far, his total skill set projects him as a utility player and nothing more. To not want to include a utility player in a potential trade for a top-flight starter would be foolish.
It could be that the Yankees regard his potential as higher than as a utility infielder, given that his potential inclusion in a deal for Cliff Lee apparently was a “deal breaker”, even though the Yankees seemed to be ultra-interested in acquiring Lee.
So including Montero was not a deal breaker but including Nunez was?
This is such a narrow and closed minded view set, one that is completely twisted by your overvaluing of every prospect in the system.
The likelihood that Banuelos even comes close to what Hamels is now is slim to none. Fans have already appointed this guy to be the future ace of the staff no questions, when his much more realistic upside is that of a number 2 or 3 pitcher. He has a very small frame which will lead to durability questions in the long term, and his control is frankly awful. He walked 5 batters per 9 innings in both double and triple A last year and outside of A ball has never really shown any ability to command the strikezone. In 4 years in the minor leagues (200 innings) Hamels had a total of 3.3 BB/9 and a 12.4 K/9 ratio. So even as a minor leaguer Hamels showed himself to be the better prospect. Baneulos could be a very good pitcher, but at the current time to bet against him being worse than Hamels is a fools gamble.
Nunez? You really would hold up a trade for a co-ace because of a super utility player we could easily replace? We sign Jerry Hairston Jr and have a player who can play better defense at every position, and he has a better bat than Nunez.
Romine is a good prospect but he projects as nothing more than a league average catcher. He should play solid defense, but his ability to get on base and hit for power should be league average or below for catchers. With Montero, Martin, Murphy, and Sanchez in the loop he is expendable.
Mason is an interesting prospect but he has never even played in high A yet, there is just as likely a chance he never makes it to the majors as he is any kind of contributor at all. Certainly not a deal breaker for a top of the rotation type starter.
I don’t see how Banuleos can make the staff this year. He needs at least a half a year in Scranton, and I honestly wouldn’t promote him to the majors until September because he has a long way to go in his development still.
2009 was Hamels only bad season as a pro, and it was completely due to his Verducci effect from jumping from 183 to 227 IP from the year before. To discount everything he’s done because of that is silly.
Not that playoff stats matter, but Hamels has been a beast in the playoffs. In 81.2 IP he has a 3.09 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, with 77 Ks, and 21 BBs. While posting a W-L record of 7-4.
I doubt the Phillies are doing this deal no matter which prospects are offered unless they 1) doubt they can win in 2012 because of Howard’s injury and possibly losing Rollins and/or 2) they know right now they probably won’t sign Hamels and don’t expect to get draft-pick compensation for losing him under the new CBA.
The Yankees should not make this deal unless they get a negotiating window and can sign Hamels to a deal. That aside, I’m cool with the Banuelos, Romine, Noesi, Williams package although I’m not sure the Phillies would go for it.
This is where I’m at. There is no real reason for the Phillies to trade Hamels at all. They are completely in win now mode, it makes more sense for them to try and win a WS this year and let Cole walk if they have to than to take a step back in talent this year. I just can’t see Cole going anywhere in a trade.
I also think eventually Hamels will re-sign with the Phillies anyway, and they will just try and backload the deal to make it make more sense for their payroll.
I would however do that trade in a minute. I just don’t think they would.
Funny thing is this same website was willing to give up Manny Banuelos, Betances, Montero or Romine, and throw in Ivan Nova for Ubaldo Jimenez. At the time many on this site (Larry, you know who you are) said that The killer B’s would never be Ubaldo, Nova was nothing more than a throw in, try and substitute Montero for Romine if possible since Romine is a back up at best.
How do you guys know this and where are you getting your information from?
Nova was a throw in? Are you talent evaluators on Yankee Analysts? Do you know more than Yankee scouts?
Matt continues to say that Yankee prospects are overrated. I hope that all these trade the prospect segments can be archived because the day one of these prospects come up big one of these editors will call for Brian Cashman’s head.
Ian Kennedy was brought up not too long ago. I believe someone said Hughes or Joba should have been traded and blamed the Cash for not having better foresight.
You guys are ridiculous with your fantasy baseball trades and you definitely have no eye for talent. Ask Ivan Nova and Ublado Jimenez that.
Look at Cole Hammel’s overall playoff numbers and project his stats in the AL East. Is he Cliff Lee-esque?
So why than would you trade our best pitching prospect, a player such as Nunez whom all of you on this site definitely underrate (ask Girardi and Cash) Mason Williams who is young but is our best overall prospect in the low minors, and Romine who projects to have a better glove and workable bat than all of our catching prospects (and we all know how the glove is more important than the bat for Catchers)? Why?
Ask yourself why?
Insults aside trying to say Cole Hamels wouldn’t be a top of the rotation pitcher in the East is silly. He has proven himself to be a top left handed starter in the regular season and postseason, with the ability to limit walks and miss bats. He isn’t a NL propped up starter who loses tons of value moving to the AL.
All prospects are overrated by their fans and teams, that’s simply the name of the game. Look at all the top prospects in baseball every year and less than 50% even pan out as league average. You are clearly guilty of overrating Yankee prospects just because they came out of our system. This isn’t a mortal sin, but it does limit your ability to evaluate these trades with reason. This isn’t a slight, it’s just a common theme. Everyone is guilty of it from time to time.
As far as Ubaldo Jimenez goes the jury is still out on that one. No one who was advocating for trading him was doing so with just the results this year in mind. If Ubaldo regains his 95-100 MPH consistent stuff then he will be a dominant starter in the AL, I don’t think there is much debate about that. The big question however is IF that will happen, I personally believed and still believe that he will regain that fastball. If he does trading for him would’ve been smart in the long term.
As far as Nova goes I will be man enough to admit I was completely wrong. I had him pegged as no more than a number 4 starter. However with the addition of his slider, and a strong mental makeup he has upgraded himself to a very solid number 3 starter. I still don’t believe he will become a number 2 starter we so desperately need, but he has tons more value than I originally gave him credit for.
To answer your question as to why you trade those prospects for Hamels. You do it because the Yankees are a win now organization and none of those prospects is likely to ever have to impact alone that Cole Hamels will, and if you can add that arm onto this team right now you put yourself in the position to be a favorite to win a WS next year and several years to come. Some of those prospects may work, and likely several won’t. It’s the same logic behind trading Kennedy and Jackson for Granderson. You do it because it gives you a better chance to win now.
Also I have been on this site a long time and I don’t recall anyone bitching we didn’t trade Hughes or Joba over Kennedy. It was the right evaluation at the time, and even though Kennedy had a great season I don’t think he has that same season in the AL East.
As far as Banuelos or Betances becoming Ubaldo Jimenez. Neither has yet, and it is still likely neither ever reach the potential Ubaldo has when he is averaging 95+ MPH on his fastball. I still believe Betances’ control problems will land him in the pen long term. I also believe that Banuelos has Gio Gonzalez like upside, but Gio isn’t the same caliber pitcher Ubaldo is when he had the stuff he had every year but last year. Like I said when he has that stuff he can be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. The question is was this year the start of a downfall, or one injury hampered season.
You answered your own question by stating you undervalued Nova and the Jury is still out on the killer B’S. But you still value Ubaldo as a top ace who has been an ace in the NL up till two seasons ago and has markedly declined in value. You need to remember something in that Colorado was looking to trade away there young ace and only the team itself knows the damage in that pitcher’s arm. You further go on to speculate in your opinion that Ubaldo will return to Ace stuff when he regains his 95mph fastball which absolutely may happen but it may not based on his pitching style and the stress on the shoulder. You than state that at best Betances who is a LEFTY will be Gio Gonzalez.
Where are you getting this new information?
Are you a scout?
This is what upsets Yankee fans that are willing to be patient and let our GM and scouts determine which prospects to retain rather than speculate like you do on this website. You need to understand that of course all fans overvalue there own prospects but not all fans think as you do and speculate as you did that Nova at best was a throw in to the Ubaldo trade and will be no better than a #5 and now you say a #3. Last season he was our #2, Was he not our #2? Did he pitch like a #2? Does he have the moxy to keep pitching like a top of rotation starter?
You need to understand that there are prospects worth keeping to see if they will develop into the player we hope such as Betances into a Johan Santana. It is worth the wait and even if they do not you are giving your prospects a chance to develop and building a team not for this year as you say we are a win now team but for years to come which is the Brian Cashman and Gene Michael school of building a DYNASTY!
Tag your it!
Yes that is why I said those who wanted to trade for Ubaldo were willing to take the gamble that it was just one injured hampered season. That’s the point of trading for a guy, you take the gamble he will be what you hope he is.
Betances isn’t a lefty, Banuelos is… and so is Gonzalez. They are very similar pitchers in all ways. Both small framed, left handers, with good fastballs, and a slider/change to back it up. They both also have trouble with walks. Banuelos to Gio is a very reasonable prediction, and the Yankees would be thrilled if he became Gio. I think they both have high number 2 upside.
What new information? There is nothing new about any of this, it’s all things that have happened.
Since when do you need to be a scout to have a discussion? I really think you need to calm down and come off your high horse. It’s insulting to talk down to me and this entire website as you are doing. I’ve never tried to personally offend you in anyway, and neither has anyone on this site. Yet you have lobbed around insults in both posts.
I never said Nova was no better than a 5, I said I believed his upside to be a number 4. Many scouts felt the same way since he doesn’t miss a lot of bats and he walks a lot of batters. He added the slider and his ability to miss bats has gone up some, this changes the evaluation. That’s part of evaluating players. Realizing when you are wrong and re-evaluating. Scouts miss all the time, and scouts have to re-evaluate players all the time.
Nova was a number 2 because we had no number 2, but no I don’t think he pitched well enough to anoint him a number 2 forever. I would be much more comfortable going into the season, and postseason with him in the 3 slot. He may very well regress this upcoming season, either because of the inning total or because he possibly pitched above his head at times. He got some of the best run support in all of baseball last year. He still doesn’t miss a ton of bats, and he still walks too many batters. He needs to repeat his work, or even improve upon it for another year before we know where he really is.
Betances is not an apt comparison to Johan Santana. Banuelos is a better comparison to Santana, but that is still a long shot. You are trying to argue for upside of prospects that you don’t even know the name of, or what handedness they are.
Yes you want to win in the future as well as now, which is why trading for someone in their 20′s like Hamels can be a good idea. He is a win now and in the future player, like Granderson was when we traded for him.
Look you are just talking down to me, and clearly being rude. I have no problem discussing different view points with you, but you have no ability to do it in a civilized manner. I have no intentions of continuing this discussion.
First of all Steve I am not talking down to you, I’m only refuting and debating your points and I hope you can come off your high horse and except criticism.
Secondly I meant Banuelos and not Betances. Read my post, I accidently typed Betances as the top lefty prospect but meant Man Ban.
And No, I still do not understand how you compare Banuelos to Gio. I am not gonna waste my time debating a point with someone who cannot take criticism. Yes this discussion is over and I’m sorry, most Yankee fans with patience and trust in our player development, scouts, and GM would not trade our TOP LEFTY PROSPECT in MANNY BANUELOS, Nunez, Romine, and our top prospect in lower minors in Mason for a 1 year rental.
Lastly, to say the Yankees are a win now team and than say Hammels is only in his 20′s and a win now and win in the future is a bit confusing especially when he will be a free agent after this season.
Thank you, hold the applause, Debate is over.
Sorry meant to say T.O. Chris and not Steve. BTW Gio and Man Bamn are not a fair comparison. See editor Steve S in regards in his latest article trading for Danks. Now that kid can write, I like where he is coming from. No offense to you and any other editors on this site.
They are very comparable actually both in terms of size, stuff, and flaws, including minor league numbers at the same level and same age.
I would love to debate all these topics and more with you I just felt your last two posts were coming from a position of talking down to me and the rest of the site. If we can keep it civil and not personal I would love to continue any discussion you would like. But the way both posts were written I felt were very rude.