Friend and colleague of mine, Larry Koestler, wrote a great article regarding A.J. Burnett earlier today. After examining each third of Burnett’s 2011 season Larry concluded that perhaps there was potential room for optimism. He writes:
I don’t know that the answer to the A.J. conundrum is as simple as “he needs to locate his curveball;” even if that does seem to have a disproportionate effect on his success/failures. I do know that A.J. Burnett has been and can be better than 5.00-plus ERA pitcher — we saw him turn in an above-average season two years ago — and if he’s still a Yankee come the 2012 season, he’ll have to figure out how to escape what’s become an annual rut and turn in a full season of league average pitching, at the very least.
Obviously, if A.J. could live up to expectations (or at least come closer to them), that’d be great for the Yankees. He’s being paid at a premium rate, and was hired to help bolster the rotation, not weigh it down. On a more psychological level, I’m sure A.J. also wouldn’t mind a few starts without hearing fans vocalize their discontent. Knowing that he helps the team rather than hinder it probably wouldn’t be a bad thing either.
Personally, I’d like to see A.J. find some success too. Aside from the fact the team benefits from any positive contributions he makes (and subsequently doesn’t have to suffer from poor production), I have always been allured by Burnett’s potential. I remember exclaiming to a friend prior to the 2009 season that, “A.J. was the quintessential X-Factor!” The rotation would look substantially different by having him on the mound behind Sabathia. Of course, at the time, I figured his biggest obstacle was staying healthy enough to remain on the mound — not a drastically reduced arsenal.
Back in 2008, A.J. had just logged 221.1 innings of 4.07 ERA ball for the Blue Jays. His 3.45 FIP and 3.51 xFIP both suggested his performance was even better. Between a legitimate 9.39 K/9 and a meager 0.77 HR/9 rate (not to mention a much more bearable 3.50 BB/9 rate), the decision to acquire him seemed much more palatable to me. By that point, he also had a reputation for being an AL East killer and a solid top of the rotation arm in terms of ” pure stuff.”
While I probably wouldn’t have bet on him repeating a 5.5 fWAR season in 2009, I absolutely felt that results comparable to his 3.2 fWAR from 2006 where completely in the realm of plausibility. Frankly, the possibility of having a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the order was really exciting, and desipite A.J.’s unpredictability, this kind of upgrade was probably worth the risk. At the time, I remember thinking, “to hell with the Braves; his services could be really helpful in New York.”
As it turned out, A.J. basically delivered what I had hoped for in 2009. Burnett pitched 207 innings along with a 8.48 K/9 rate, and a 4.04 ERA (4.33 FIP, 4.23 xFIP) — all good for a 3.5 fWAR. His 4.22 BB/9 and 1.09 HR/9 rates were inflated more than one would ideally like, but for all intents and purposes, Burnett was still a valuable member of the rotation (and as a bonus, he even gave us some postseason heroics). If you’re a believer of the Fangraph’s player value metric, you may also be surprised to know that A.J. was actually worth $15.9M which wasn’t all that far off from the $16.5M he was actually being compensated with. He may not have been the prototypical “number two” per se, but he wasn’t a black void by any means either.
I’m not sure really where I’m going with this other post other than to say A.J. has always been a rather alluring pitcher (at least to me). Moreover, I’ve always been fairly astounded in my utter inability to avoid getting suckered into believing that his potential could translate out onto the field positively with any kind of regularity going forward. Instead, all indications seem to reinforce the point that his one real consistent attribute seems to be in inconsistency.
Still, I agree with Larry’s premise that Burnett’s a better pitcher than the guy we’ve seen the past two seasons. While my brain keeps reminding me to let it go and stop investing energy in false hopes, my gut remains ready to believe. I want to see the 2009 A.J. make an appearance in 2012, and I want to see (at least for one more season) a rotation that is better off with him than without. I just can’t help myself; now will someone please tell me to snap out of it so I can move onto something that is less likely to end in disappointment.
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4 Responses to Five (more) minutes spent on A.J.
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TIQ IQ
Matt, all these continuing commentaries about AJ and what he could be and should be and once was are only distractions on what is. And your line above says it best and I quote “He’s being paid at a premium rate, and was hired to help bolster the rotation, not weigh it down” end of quote.
It seems to me fans would have more luck if they clicked there heels 3 times like Dorothy in the “Wizard of Oz” who only wanted to wake up in Kansas.
Just my opinion but I think it’s time for everyone to recognize what you’ve seen of AJ the past 2 years is what you’ll get the next 2 years.
You’re certainly right about A.J. being a distraction. I’ve spent waaaaay to many hours reading/writing about him. And…you’re probably right in your feelings about him going forward.
I suppose A.J. is just one of those players who despite his abysmal performance (and likelihood of repeating) is still one of those guys who I can’t help but be intrigued by.
I agree with the basic notion that Burnett should be better than this. It’s something that kicks around in the back of my mind whenever I see him snap off a sharp curve or run a fastball in on the hands of a batter. If only that Burnett showed up every game…
However, perhaps this isn’t a matter of him rebounding. Maybe we shouldn’t look at Burnett’s 2009 or ponder his better than average xFIP of 2011.
Burnett will be 35 in January. He has over 2400 IP in his professional career, and he’s had multiple surgeries on his throwing arm … maybe this is simply his decline. Sure, it’s abrupt – but Burnett seems to be the exact sort of pitcher that would have an abrupt decline. It almost seems appropriate given his quirks and history that he would fall off a cliff at some point.
And, once more – would it really be shocking if a mid-30′s pitcher that is heavily reliant on swings and misses would abruptly lose it?
This is really the only real explanation. Burnett was always a hit and miss pitcher who wasn’t as good as he should have been one start to the next. The thing was he always had the stuff the get by with it most of the time, but as his fastball has declined he has gotten worse and worse.
Just look at his fastball velocity over the last 4 years and I think it tells the story.
2008- 94.4
2009- 94.2
2010- 93.1
2011- 92.7
Is it really a shock he has gotten worse and worse since he dropped out of the 94 MPH range with his fastball? Burnett has never been a pitcher, he has always been the prototypical thrower. I don’t think we can just expect him to learn to change that at this point in his career. It’s frustrating, and he will still show flashes of brilliance, but the flashes will be fewer and farther in between from here on out.
I’ve always looked at Burnett’s contract as the Yankees making a deal with the devil in order to win the 2009 WS. They had to decide between Lowe and Burnett, and they went with the more powerful arm to get the job done. Ultimately it worked and there is no doubt in my mind that without him we wouldn’t have won the WS that year. Unfortunately no one saw the steep decline in stuff coming, and the next 3-4 years is the price we have to pay for that ring. As long as he is moved to the back of the rotation I’m fine with paying that cost, if for no other reason than we have no choice. I imagine he will get moved for next to nothing next season and the dream, turned nightmare, will end.