TYA: Mailbag – CURTIS!

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TYA reader, Travis, writes, “I would like to see how the Curtis Granderson trade has played out. Whether keeping Ian Kennedy, Phil Coke and Austin Jackson would even come close to the MVP caliber player that Granderson has become?”

 For those who are unfamiliar with all the details of the trade — and I doubt anyone who reads this site is — here’s a quick blurb that I wrote from a prior post pertaining to three-way trades that outlines the players directly involved.

Back in December of 2009, the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson from the Tigers. The D’Backs got Edwin Jackson (from the Tigers) and Ian Kennedy (from the Yanks). The Tigers bounty included Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth from Arizona along with Austin Jackson and Phil Coke from the Yankees. What makes this trade particularly unique (at least at this juncture), is it seemed to work out favorably for everyone involved.

Perhaps the best way of tackling Travis’ question is to examine the overall results since the trade happened, as well as examining the 2011 season in isolated terms.

Let’s start with the Diamond Backs. Thus far, Ian Kennedy has honestly been a real asset to their team. This year, Kennedy has effectively become a top of the rotation arm (albeit in a definitively softer division) and has earned a 17-4 record with a 3.03 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 3.59 xFIP. Between this season and last, he’s been worth 5.9 fWAR overall (2.4 and 3.5 in each year respectively). To put those numbers into context, if we planted that 3.5 fWAR on the Yankees rotation right now, on paper he’d look like the second best pitcher on the team (behind Sabathia’s 6.1 fWAR).

The other guy the Diamond Backs acquired was frequent journeyman, Edwin Jackson, from the Tigers. During his brief stint with Arizona, he wasn’t particularly effective. Over 134.1 IP, he had a 5.16 ERA, 4.24 FIP, and a 4.11 xFIP (good for a 1.8 fWAR). For what it is worth though, the D’Backs were able to trade Edwin for Daniel Hudson and then pitching prospect David Holmberg back in July of 2010. Holmberg hasn’t contributed anything at the Big League stage, but that isn’t to say he never will. Hudson, on the other hand, has been fairly valuable. In 79.2 IP last year, he posted a 7.91 K/9 and 1.81 BB/9 rate along with a shiney 1.69 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.53 xFIP (good for a 2.0 fWAR). This year he’s continued his string of quality starts as he’s posted a 3.61 ERA, 3.20 FIP, and a 3.66 xFIP (worth a very respectable 4.3 fWAR).

All told, the D’Backs have been the benefactor of 14 fWAR from the players noted above (assuming we include the players involved with flipping Edwin which I think is fair). Speaking strictly in terms of Yankee players acquired, Ian Kennedy has been worth 5.9 fWAR up until this point. I’d have to assume Arizona is not feeling a whole lot of buyer’s remorse about cheap, young quality pitching.

Now for the Tigers. Can you believe they are currently leading the AL Central division by five games? Arizona top prospect, Max Scherzer, had a really solid debut with the Tigers in 2010. Through 195.2 IP, he pitched to a 3.50 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and a 3.68 xFIP (earning himself a 3.7 fWAR). This year, Max’s results haven’t been quite so exciting (4.52 ERA/4.24 FIP/3.78 xFIP/1.9 fWAR). In total, Scherzer’s been worth a 5.6 in terms of fWAR.

Schlereth has been an interesting addition to the Detroit bullpen. Each year, he’s posted desirable K/9 rates. However, each year his BB/9 rates have been significantly higher than one would ideally want. He’s also spent time over the past two seasons with the Tigers AAA afiliates. In 2010 (2.89) and 2011 (3.89) his ERA far surprassed his FIP (4.20 and 5.27 FIP respectively). He was listed at 0.1 fWAR over 18.2 innings last year and has been largely ineffective this year (-0.4). All told, it’s probably premature to claim him a bust, but he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire by any means either.

That brings us to the other reliever/starter-though-still-secretly-a-reliever-at-heart/reliever, Phil Coke. Coke(y)’s been pretty good for the Tigers as he’s offered some decent production on the cheap. In 2010 he pitched to a 3.76 ERA/3.23 FIP/4.40 xFIP over 64.2 IP (good for a 1.1 fWAR). This year, his strike out rates have taken a definite dip and the whole starting pitching experiment was somewhat of a flop (as to be expected). His ERA is an unspectacular 4.29 (3.49 FIP, 4.42 xFIP) and his 1.9 fWAR through 100.2 IP is probably not going to raise many eyebrows.

And then there’s Jackson. The former Yankee prospect stormed into the Bigs in 2010. Over 675 plate appearances, he batted .293/.345/.400 (.333 wOBA, 105 wRC+). In his debut season, Jackson earned a 4.1 fWAR and sparked numerous groans from Yankeeland as Curtis struggled mightily. Unfortunately for Austin, the BABIP Gods revoked their favor and his results have since plummeted back to Earth. His strike out rates are still through the roof and his walk rates are still low. In 2011, he’s batted .243/.312/.356 (.300 wOBA, 85 wRC+). His 1.4 fWAR is also rather pedestrian. Overall, the Tigers have benefited from 13.8 wins above replacement from their combined package of players which really speaks (I think) to the quanity of guys involved more so than the quality. Yankee contributors, Jackson and Coke, equate to 8.5 of those wins these past two seasons.

So let’s talk about Curtis. Through his two years in pinstripes, results have been somewhat mixed. For the first half of 2010, many of the Yankee faithful were absolutely bemoaning Curtis’ mere pressence. After K-Long “fixed” his mechanics last season though, the tides began to change rather rapidly. His 2010 season line read .247/.324.468 (.346 wOBA, 113 wRC+) with 24 HR (3.6 fWAR). More importantly, since the patented K-Long treatment, his crazy splits were seemingly under control and he finished out the year about as hot as he could have. This year, however, the Grandyman has been playing on a whole different level altogether. He leads the league in homeruns (38) and has posted a .276/.375/.591 (.412 wOBA, 161 wRC+) triple slash. He’s also become a very legitimate candidate in the league MVP discussion (with his 6.7 fWAR). When totaling the past two seasons, Grandy’s been worth 10.3 fWAR in total by himself.

Like any trade (especially one with so many pieces), it’s difficult to gauge who the clear winner is — at least until more time has passed and we have the benefit of hindsight. When considering the overall results over the past couple seasons, honestly, I’d have to believe each team is pleased with the players they got back. Going forward, I’d also have to imagine the Yankees are feeling very good about their selection.

In 2011, Kennedy, Coke, and Jackson would have been worth a combined 6.8 fWAR for the Yankees which is essentially the exact worth of Grandy. This assumes, of course, that had each player remained with the Yankees this year, their production would be exactly the same (/Kay’d). Pretending it would be though, I’d say the Yankees look like the clear winner right now.  Grandy’s posted incredible production and has been enarly as valuable by himself as those other three guys would be combined.  That elite type of singular production is just to difficult to replace.  In my opinion, you always have to take quality over quanity.

While Kennedy would have been a nice guy to have in the rotation right about now, the Yanks have certainly made do (and then some) with the staff they already have. Moreover, they have a fantastic bullpen already which mitigates the need for a guy like Coke (who isn’t even particularly dominant). I’m not sure the organization would have had the faith in Austin Jackson as a starting outfielder anyway, but if they did, I’m not sure the Bombers would be getting nearly the same offensive spark.  His projection (in a best case scenario) was to essentially be what Grandy is now.  Basically, if I’m the Yankees, there’s no way I give up Granderson’s ouput for the other three.

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