Starting to put the season in perspective
Maybe this is a post better saved for when the season actually ends, but I think a lot of these things are worth noting right now.
Regardless of how the postseason goes, when I think back to the 2011 regular season, the first thing I’ll think of is surprise. I didn’t think the Yankees would be a third place team, but given the state of the rotation, I did not think they would be this good. Going into yesterday, the Yankees were third in the AL in ERA, second in FIP, second in xFIP, and second in pitching fWAR (they were second to the White Sox in FIP/xFIP/fWAR). Raise your hand if you saw that coming. Put. Your. Hand. Down. At the beginning of the year, the rotation probably wasn’t as bad as we made it out to be, but there’s no way we could’ve seen this coming. If we pile on the injuries to Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain, that makes the performance even more impressive.
Leading the way in terms of surprises have to be Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon, who, despite recent struggles, gave the Yankees more than they could have imagined. Luis Ayala and Cory Wade have also been damn good considering their scrap heap status. Ivan Nova has definitely turned some heads. He may not do it exactly the way we like and he may have trouble with turning over a lineup sometimes, but he’s given the Yankees a whole hell of a lot and has been better than I expected or anticipated. Even David Robertson qualifies as a surprise. We knew he was a good pitcher, but we had no idea he was capable of leading AL relievers in fWAR (2.6 before yesterday).
On offense, we’ve seen Brett Gardner post another strong offensive season, dropping his strikeout rate and increasing his “power” (.116 Iso) to a career high. To no one’s surprise, Gardner has been dynamite on defense. Russell Martin‘s 101 wRC+ may not be a lot to write home about, and is a bit disappointing considering his hot start, but that out of a catcher who plays good defense is definitely valuable. The biggest surprise with Martin, though, has definitely been his durability.
We’ve all complained about this team at some point this year (well, maybe not Moshe. Seriously, dude, how do you stay so rational? It’s beyond admirable.) but if anyone said this regular season was a disappointment, well, I’d find that remarkably hard to agree with. On an individual level, it would’ve been great to see better performances out of A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes, but on a team level, I cannot take too much issue. The Yankees are on the edge of another playoff berth and another division title. No matter how you slice it, this has been a successful season.
Tagged with: A.J. Burnett • Bartolo Colon • Brett Gardner • Cory Wade • David Roberston • Freddy Garcia • Luis Ayala • Phil Hughes • Russell Martin
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Oh, no season with a division title could be a disappointment. And don’t forget all the great hours of baseball. I enjoyed it thoroughly.
The Yankees have underperformed their pythagorean by 5 games. That’s moderately unusual. Do you think there’s a reason for that beyond luck, perhaps having to do with their run distribution, which is rather clumpy?
The Yankees have underperformed their pythag because they have a bad record in one run games, and have won in a lot of blow outs.
Matt … Curtis Granderson’s season doesn’t make your list of surprises?
That’s an oversight. Perhaps it’s because I’m “overcompensating,” in a way. I thought Granderson was going to have a great year, but not this great.
What about Derek hitting around .300 and hitting over .320 in the second half?
Yes, I know that. Do you think it’s just luck, or an unavoidable part of the way the team hits?
A little of both.
For the past two seasons certain kinds of pitchers have been able to shut the Yankees down. While I don’t have the data to hand, I’m willing to bet that most of the one run losses have been low scoring affairs against lefties, or pitchers with excellent off speed offerings. The entire lineup has demonstrated a habit of disappearing against those kinds of guys, hence the poor performance in one run games.
That said, any extra inning game has a high degree of luck and the Yankees definitely were due to win about fifty percent of them, so it’s a bit of each.
While I feel that the Yankees are a bit better than their record, I think a full five games is generous when you consider that the team mostly blew out inferior opponents.
That makes sense.
Well the other side of it is that nobody expected the Red Sox to be this ~bad~ if you know what I mean. They’re not a bad team, but I think a lot of people, including myself, expected them to be much better than they’ve played, even considering the injuries. No doubt, the Red Sox sagging has helped create an opportunity where the Yankees have been able to step up. All credit still to the Yankees though for actually stepping into it, especially as you mentioned given all their own problems this year.
They were about as good as everyone expected for 125 games. That 2-8 opening,. and the 5-15 September have sunk them. But for a while they looked unbeatable.
“On offense, we’ve seen Brett Gardner post another strong offensive season…”
That’s a very generous assessment. His numbers are middling at best. Yes, his K rate has decreased but so have has his walk rate (by a larger percentage incidentally). Gardner’s big numbers last year were fueled by a 13.9% walk rate and a .340 BABIP neither of which were sustainable by a hitter of his nature and skill set. This year his walk rate is 10.1% and his BABIP is .308 both of which are much closer to his career numbers.
No argument on his defensive skills although I do not put much stock in the defensive statistics that go into the calculations that boost Gardner’s WAR into Albert Pujols territory.
Gardner is a nice player and a good complementary piece for a slugging team like the Yankees to have. But he has also been prone to long slumps which would not seem characteristic of a guy whose primary skill is supposed to be getting on base. Let’s not get carried away about him.