Projected vs. Actual: Outfielder edition

Check here for yesterday’s IF edition.

The outfield output from the Yankees was remarkably balanced in 2011. Each primary outfielder–Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher–contributed something. Granderson added remarkable power (.293 IsoP) while Swisher displayed his infinite patience (15.0 BB%), and Brett Gardner blazed up the basepaths (48 SB). All three men were in the top 10 among OFs in fWAR with Granderson placing 3rd, Gardner 5th, and Swisher 10th. While this includes other players, the Yankees’ OF placed first in the AL in fWAR at 17.4, 2.7 WAR in front of the second place AL team (Kansas City, 14.7) and 5.2 ahead of the third place team (Tampa Bay, 12.2). All told, the Yankees outfield was downright elite in 2011.

BRETT GARDNER

ACTUAL: .259/.343/.370; .330 wOBA
RotoChamp: .282/.381/.382; .361 wOBA
Bill James: .275/.377/.371; .349 wOBA
Marcel: .269/.357/.378; .341 wOBA
ZiPS: .260/.355/.367; .337 wOBA

While Gardner definitely didn’t disappoint with the bat, he didn’t quite live up to his projections. Two poor months (April and a .286 wOBA; August and a .281 wOBA) definitely helped to sink his season. At this point, it seems like streaky play is the only constant we can expect from Gardner.

CURTIS GRANDERSON

ACTUAL: .264/.366/.557; .396 wOBA
RotoChamp: .269/.346/.486; .364 wOBA
Bill James: .264/.341/.471; .355 wOBA
Marcel: .253/.329/.448; .341 wOBA
ZiPS: .261/.338/.494; .360 wOBA

Frankly, if Granderson had hit to any of those projections, this year would’ve been a success. For context’s sake, the median wOBA by a qualified AL CF this year was .336 (by B.J. Upton) so even the weakest projection for Curtis, Marcel’s .341 wOBA, would’ve been a better-than-average mark. Of course, Curtis was much better than average this year. I think we all expected Granderson to have a strong year this year, but I don’t think we expected a .396 wOBA and an MVP caliber season.

NICK SWISHER

ACTUAL: .260/.374/.447; .358 wOBA
RotoChamp:.265/.357/.490; .368 wOBA
Bill James: .257/.359/.472; .362 wOBA
Marcel: .254/.345/.462; .352 wOBA
ZiPS: .258/.356/.485; .363 wOBA

The only thing even remotely disappointing about Swisher’s season was the general lack of power. His .187 Iso was in no way bad, but it is the lowest he’s had in a season in which he’s racked up at least 500 plate appearances. Everything else was more or less in line with what he’s done for his career and, once again, Swisher had a productive season. While April and May were disasters (.293 wOBA in each month), Swisher destroyed the ball in June (.461), July (.390), and August (.402). September (.272 wOBA) has been a down month, but most of Swisher’s year has been remarkably productive. Swisher’s .358 wOBA was second only to Jose Bautista‘s .443 among American League right fielders, as was his 3.7 fWAR (8.4 for Joey Bats). His OBP and BB% also led the Yankees.

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