Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News
With the gaudy Win-Loss record that Ivan Nova has put up so far this season, some Yankee announcers and many fans have been recently touting his candidacy for the Rookie of the Year award. My initial impression is that I don’t view him as the best rookie pitcher in the American League this year, with Mariners young stud Michael Pineda immediately coming to mind as far superior in his profile and skill set. But still, I wanted to double check my initial thoughts by looking at some of the other players who will be up for the award. With this in mind, let’s take a brief look at who some of his competitors will be, and what kinds of seasons they’re having. Fangraphs allows you to sort by Rookie status as well as WAR, so that’s the leader board I’ll be looking at.
First the top 4 AL Rookie positional players:
| Name | Team | G | PA | H | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | Bsr | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Ackley | Mariners | 66 | 276 | 72 | 5 | 33 | 32 | 2 | 10.9 % | 18.1 % | .164 | .351 | .295 | .370 | .459 | .363 | 133 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Desmond Jennings | Rays | 39 | 175 | 48 | 8 | 24 | 20 | 14 | 10.9 % | 20.0 % | .257 | .381 | .324 | .419 | .581 | .436 | 182 | -1.8 | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Mark Trumbo | Angels | 129 | 492 | 117 | 24 | 58 | 73 | 8 | 4.9 % | 19.9 % | .220 | .272 | .254 | .295 | .474 | .327 | 105 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Josh Reddick | Red Sox | 69 | 221 | 55 | 6 | 35 | 26 | 1 | 7.7 % | 17.6 % | .185 | .308 | .275 | .326 | .460 | .334 | 106 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| 1.5 |
Now the top 4 AL Rookie pitchers:
| Name | Team | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pineda | Mariners | 9 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 153.0 | 9.18 | 2.94 | 0.94 | .256 | 69.5 % | 35.1 % | 8.9 % | 3.71 | 3.41 | 3.51 | 2.9 |
| Zach Britton | Orioles | 9 | 9 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 128.0 | 5.84 | 3.38 | 0.63 | .310 | 64.4 % | 53.3 % | 7.9 % | 4.22 | 3.78 | 3.97 | 2.3 |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 15 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 23 | 138.2 | 5.52 | 3.05 | 0.78 | .285 | 71.4 % | 53.8 % | 9.3 % | 3.89 | 3.99 | 4.02 | 2.1 |
| Jordan Walden | Angels | 4 | 3 | 27 | 53 | 0 | 51.0 | 9.88 | 3.71 | 0.18 | .301 | 77.9 % | 45.8 % | 2.1 % | 2.65 | 2.37 | 3.25 | 1.9 |
As you can see, Michael Pineda is the clear choice among Rookie pitchers. He strikes out many more batters, has Nova beat by over half a run in FIP and .8 WAR. Among hitters Dustin Ackley has been outstanding for the Mariners and would appear to have a strong candidacy as well. Combining the two leaderboards, Nova finishes 5th in terms of WAR tied with the Angel’s Trumbo. Zach Britton’s midseason demotion after experiencing early success has to hurt his candidacy. Nova was demoted as well, but it wasn’t based on poor performance as it was with Britton.
Looking at recent ROY winners and comparing to their place on WAR leaderboards, there isn’t always a direct correlation. Buster Posey won NL ROY in 2010 despite finishing well behind Jason Heyward in terms of WAR. Neftali Feliz (1.7 WAR) beat out Brian Matusz (2.7 WAR) for AL ROY honors the same year. The previous year, Andrew Bailey’s glittering 1.84 ERA seemed to have carried the day despite finishing tied for 7th on the AL WAR leaderboard.
Of course, playing time can greatly affect WAR, so a midseason call up who tears up the league will be hurt by lack of PAs, as was the case with Posey. But looking at wOBA, Posey still finished behind Heyward in 2010, in 09 NL ROY winner Chris Couglin finished 3rd and 08 NL ROY Geovany Soto finished behind Joey Votto in both WAR and wOBA. Clearly, we’re giving the BWAA voters too much credit if we expect the majority of them to be looking at advanced metrics.
So the question becomes something of a horse race. Will Pineda and Ackley split support among west coast writers since they’re on the same team? Will Trumbo’s 24 HRs further divide that support? Are there enough old school voters who don’t look at advanced stats and will be swayed by Nova’s win total? Looking at recent ROY winners, the guys with an easy selling point seem to carry the day. Being on a winning team doesn’t hurt either, though it really shouldn’t matter. I have to think Nova has an excellent shot to win ROY, despite the fact that Pineda’s proved himself to be the far superior pitcher this season.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
7 Responses to Looking at Nova’s ROY candidacy
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
Nova has been closing the gap in FIP. Aggregate wins aside, a strong second half could skew voters’ thinking.
FIP
Nova: Jul (albeit 12 IP): 3.35 Aug: 2.98
Pineda: Jul: 3.73 Aug: 4.19
Lets be careful about using the advanced metrics blindly bc if we do last place teams who play under little league pressure in games nobody cares about end up looking maybe a lot better than they are wo having been tested
I think the crucible that is NYC, and the heat of a pennant chase,and epecially with the pressure put on Nova because of the woes of some of the other starters holds him in good stead. He has stepped up, gotten better through the season, and is a factor in the Yanks success. In that context, he gets my vote.
Pineda is the “clear choice among rookie pitchers”?
He faces only one solid offense regularly (Texas) yet has an ERA only 0.17 points less than Nova who pitches in the division inhabited by the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays. I include the Rays because while they don’t hit much, their starting pitchers pressure you to pitch well. Nova also has to pitch in three bandboxes (Fenway Park, Tropicana Field, Camden Yards) and an extra-base hit paradise (Rogers Center) regularly. Contrast that to Pineda whose team plays in a pitcher’s park.
11 straight wins, 15 wins total, great ERA for a kid who pitches in the toughest division in the majors.
Big deal Pineda strikes out 9+/GS. The ROTY is not about just stats, it’s the whole package. Nova is doing what he’s doing under wayyyy more pressure than Pineda who along with his rotation mate Felix Hernandez pitch in relative anonymity and utter peace for what Mariners fan or newspaper is getting on either or both? It’s nice to have 10-12 starts against Oakland and L.A. If Texas can’t hit along with them one year, you could easily finish with an ERA under 3.
Nova is doing what he’s doing on the biggest stage in professional sports and that trumps SO/GS, WAR, and FIP. And you know full well it comes down to ERA and wins especially with writers who don’t take much stock in the newer stats (although I think they should factor them in.)
Nova’s the 2011 AL Rookie Of The Year cuz he’s done what he’s done for the Yankees and when NO ONE none of us expected him to.
If Nova gets 17 – 18 wins he is the ROY hands down! I don’t care about the more sophisticated stats. He filled a gap in the Yankees rotation and is one of the big reasons that the Yanks are rated as having a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs on September 3! No concern about a pennant race and Girardi has the luxury of positioning the team for the post season! Big win total in big games!
Though I am fan of advanced stats it seems some people rely to heavily upon them and lose context. To compare base an argument solely on FIP or WAR it just as naive as to base it on Wins and ERA. As Duh Innings points out, strength of competition should matter. Pitching your home games in YS3 and your road games in Fenway, Camden, and Toronto is much different than home games in Seattle and road games in Oakland and Anaheim.
As for last years ROY race. Sure Heyward out WAR’d Posey (games of course) and he also out wOBA’d, but I would have thought that someone who just made a case based on WAR would understand positional adjustment and to compare teh wOBA of a corner OFer to a cather is ridiculous.
At the same,the article well written and enjoyed.
Thanks for the kind words. You’re right that I should have mentioned the positional adjustment, but Heyward was so far ahead in both areas that I’m not sure it would have changed things. But we’ll need someone with more math skills than me to confirm that.