The minor league season is over. After a 2010 season that saw breakout performance after breakout performance, the 2011 season saw its share of ups and downs, but overall it was a positive for the Yankee farm system. The Yankees had a few legitimate breakouts (Dante Bichette, Mason Williams), a few crash-and-burns (Andrew Brackman, Jose Ramirez) and a whole lot of players who mostly maintained their status and value. It would have been nice to see guys like Banuelos, Betances, and Montero build on their 2010 gains, but overall they are still about the same prospects they were a year ago.
Again, I used my TYA Prospect Rating System to assign scores to the prospects. At that link, you can read a full explanation of how it works. Basically, a score is assigned based upon how good a prospect can be if 75% of things go right for them, and then a risk rating is assigned based upon factors that could derail they potential. Here is the list:
As with any prospect list, don’t get too hung up over who’s at #15 versus #17. For the most part, prospects within a certain tier are interchangeable. Tiers are #1, #2-#4, #5-#8, #9-12, #13-19, #20-24, #25-30.
Just missing the list were honorable mentions Evan Rutckyj, Ben Gamel, Mark Montgomery, Isaias Tejada, Jordan Cote, Jake Cave, Adam Smith and Zach Arneson.
The Yankees have a very strong farm system, arguably stronger than it was last season. The Yankees were a top-5 system in baseball as of last year. They didn’t infuse a ton of talent into the system from the draft, but enough players had solid-to-breakout seasons to maintain their past strength. Mason Williams took the biggest leap forward, and should be a good bet to enter the BA Top-100 list on the back end. Ivan Nova was the only major prospect to graduate to the big leagues. There were things not to like about Montero, Betances, Banuelos, and Sanchez in 2011, but all had pretty good seasons when all was said and done, and are set up for success next season. Andrew Brackman was the biggest disappointment of the year, followed by David Adams, Brandon Laird, Melky Mesa, Slade Heathcott, and Ryan Pope. All took big hits in their prospect rating, but only Pope remains hopeless to have a successful MLB career in some capacity.
Projecting forward a little bit, the Yankees may be wanting for top-end talent a year from now. Montero and Noesi are as good as graduated (Noesi is techincally over 50 IP, but I left him here anyway), while Betances, Romine and Banuelos could also move up in the next 52 weeks. The Yankees haven’t added a ton of top-end talent at the draft in recent years, even if they have quite a few respectable showings on the list for above-slot signings. Gary Sanchez is a blue-chipper, and Mason Williams could easily get there pretty soon, but they’ll be looking for the 2011 draft class to show some ceiling. Luckily, both the Staten Island Yankees and GCL Yankees had a ton of strong seasons from hitters, including Santana, Tejada, Austin, and others. Dante Bichette’s development will also be important.
So that’s the list. If you have any questions about the rating system, please use this thread instead of the old one I linked to. At some point soon, this list will be posted on the top of the site for easy access. What do you all think?
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11 Responses to Fall 2011 Top 30 Yankees Prospect List
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TIQ IQ
Curious as to why you ranked Mason Williams a high injury risk.
That’s a mistake. I use a standard moderate for a young hitter in his spot. I will fix it.
I have to stick up for my boy, Melky Mesa. First of all, except for a handful of rehab games, he was in AA the entire season. Secondly, he had a poor first half, but really turned it on in the second half. I remember the arguement for Gardner was that it took him a while to get adjusted to a level. Maybe the same thing can be said for Melky II?
I’m basically with you on it. I think he’s got at least a MLB future as a bench player, and could theoretically be a decent center fielder on a second-division team. His second half was pretty solid, but if you take the full-season numbers, its disappointing.
Hey where does Tommy Kahnle rank? Seems like he struck everyone out when he was up
As a relief pitcher, Kahnle is pretty far down on my list, and will be until he’s almost major league ready. He definitely showed some strikeout strength this season, but wasn’t as dominant as, say, David Robertson was at the same experience level, as MLB-ready as George Kontos is, or didn’t have the kind of 2011 that Mark Montgomery did. Definitely a guy to keep an eye on though.
This is minor quibbling especially given your comments about the groupings but I’d probably put:
Murphy higher
Bichette & Bird lower
Heathcott a little lower due to injury concerns
Segedin & Laird higher
I know I’m not alone with this concern. Heathcott’s shoulder injury caused him to miss a lot of time and probably set back his plate development.
Heathcott has got intriguing power tools but he may find that aspect of his game deteriorate if his shoulder is prone to pain. I like that he’s got speed and he showed he’s not a hacker.
Yet, a second season endings in injury should drop him in the chart. Honestly, a case could be made for zolio Almonte to rank ahead of heathcott.
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can i please see the whole scores of the entire season?