Chris Carpenter has apparently re-signed with the St. Louis Cardinals, inking a 2 year, 21 million dollar extension that will likely keep him a Redbird through the end of his career. This is significant for the Yankees, as it takes another solid option out of the mix from a free agent market that the Yankees will certainly be shopping in. Assuming they bring back CC Sabathia, the big lefty and Ivan Nova are the only two starters that should have a guaranteed rotation spot next season, with Phil Hughes and a variety of other youngsters likely competing for a 3rd spot. That leaves two rotation spots to fill and not very many options freely available. Here are the pitchers on the 2012 free agent market, courtesy of Cot’s:
Mark Buehrle CWS
Chris Carpenter STL *
Bruce Chen KC
Aaron Cook COL *
Kyle Davies KC
Ryan Dempster CHC *
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Zach Duke ARI *
Jeff Francis KC
Freddy Garcia NYY
Jon Garland LAD *
Aaron Harang SD
Rich Harden OAK
Livan Hernandez WAS
Edwin Jackson CWS
Kenshin Kawakami ATL
Scott Kazmir LAA
Hiroki Kuroda LAD
Rodrigo Lopez CHC
Paul Maholm PIT
John Maine COL
Jason Marquis WAS
Kevin Millwood NYY
Scott Olsen PIT *
Roy Oswalt PHI *
Brad Penny DET
Oliver Perez NYM
Joel Pineiro LAA
CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out)
Carlos Silva NYY
Javier Vazquez FLA
Adam Wainwright STL *
Tim Wakefield BOS
Chien-Ming Wang WAS
Brandon Webb ARI
C.J. Wilson TEX
Chris Young NYM
The players with stars next to their names have options in their contracts, and many are unlikely to be available. The obvious star of the class is C.J. Wilson, who is likely to be expensive and is something of a question mark due to the fact that much of his career was spent as a reliever. This means that although he will be 31 next season and may be something of a risk on a 5 year contract at AJ Burnett dollars, he has a lot less wear on his arm than the typical 31 year old. Additionally, Japanese sensation Yu Darvish is likely to be posted, and could provide another attractive front of the rotation option. However, it is important to note that the 2013 free agent pitching class is loaded, with Cole Hamels, John Danks, Francisco Liriano, Matt Cain, Shaun Marcum, Anibal Sanchez, and Zack Greinke all potential free agents after the 2012 season. The Yankees may want to treat 2012 as a bridge year in the rotation, piecing things together with some veteran pitchers like they have done in 2011, and then diving into the deep pitching pool in 2013. Unfortunately, with Carpenter off the board, that strategy looks to be fairly risky.
I see 3 pitchers who could be considered (unless you count Javy Vazquez…), but do not see any of them truly fitting with the Yankees: Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, and Hiroki Kuroda. Jackson is actually a bit underrated at this point, but he is going to want to cash in on his solid performance in recent years and is unlikely to take a 1-2 year stopgap type deal. The same could be said for Buehrle, who looks to be coming to the downside of his career and is likely to be looking for one last long-term deal. Kuroda is the only real short-term option I see on this list now that Carpenter has signed, and he has shown an unwillingness to leave the West Coast.
Considering the state of the market and the Yankees pitching needs, I expect them to return one of Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon as a short term option, as well as pursue Wilson and Darvish to fill the hole at the front of the rotation. This will help strengthen the rotation for 2012 and potentially leave a slot open for 2013, to be filled either by a member of the strong free agent class or by a top prospect such as Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos.
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5 Responses to Carpenter Re-Ups With Cards, Further Thinning 2012 Pitching Market
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TIQ IQ
2012 Yankees rotation:
1. Sabathia
2. Jake Peavy for just one year at $21M if he isn’t good enough to be brought back for 2013, $39M for 2012-13 ($17M for 2012 + $22M for 2013) if he is. The guy is a former Cy Young Award winner, would be only 31 next May 31, and has good control.
3. Nova
4. Garcia re-signed for 2012 only
5. Burnett who isn’t moving to the bullpen or being traded due $33M ($16.5M per year) through 2013.
Kuroda wants to remain a Dodger and who knows if he’d be yet another NL pitcher who can’t hack it in the AL? Buerhle will most likely re-up with the White Sox (why not as he’s a 2005 hero there? Jackson is not worth whatever he’ll ask for. Wilson is not worth 4 or 5 years. No Yu Darvish, see Irabu, Igawa, and at times especially this year Matsuzaka. Hideo Nomo was the first/last/only very good and at times great starting pitcher from Japan. No more paying money just to talk to a player. Look what only $2.4M brought the 2011 Yanks (Garcia for $1.5M + Colon for $900K.)
Jake Peavy was just shut down for the season. He’s never consistently healthy and he’s way too expensive, and that’s not factoring in the cost of a trade.
Its not my money but I’d prefer to tighten the purse strings till after the 2012 season to make a run at Zach Greinke. Hey, i like Greinke MORE than Hamels, but i’m fine with outbidding the Phils for Hamels.
Anyway, since there’s the 2012 season to actually play out before adding a 1A, my tentative rotation looks like this:
1. CC
2. Burnett
3. Nova
4. Hughes
5. Bartolo Colon
Pay Colon another year, but acquire Yu Darvish. Darvish wont need any AAA seasoning, and I think he’ll be at least league average. Of course the bidding process is done with blinders on so its all moot if the yanks dont win the bid.
If Darvish isnt available, then bringing back Colon is a must. Have Banuelos and Betances pitch in AAA, and then flat-out just promote the better at mid season. Mitchell, Phelps, and Warren serve as emergency starters till Banuelos can stick in the bigs.
Not a sexy rotation by any means, but it beats having to give CJ Wilson a 5-6 yr deal at a Burnett-like 17 million per. CJ >>> Burnett, but that money is too much considering the goods available in 2012.
Potential 2012 free agent order of preference:
1. Greinke
2. Hamels
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Cain
Dont sleep on Anibal Sanchez. Marlins really wishing Josh Johnson was healthy …
Peavy would be intriguing but a health risk. Nova has solidified a slot, as well as Garcia. Burnett is a fill-in. CJ Wilson a possibility, but not probable. I like the Yankees to attack Anibal Sanchez next year with a trade. He has a lot of possibilities as a LHP.
Sabathia
Nova
Garcia
Burnett
Sanchez/Killer B’s/ Wilson/ Peavy