A week ago it appeared we would have a rather dull September, with the Yanks and Red Sox cruising their way to October baseball. But a 4 game slide from both teams (2-8 for the Red Sox) has clouded the Wild Card picture. With 3 weeks to go we may actually get a scramble to the finish line, which is always fun as long as you’re not one of the teams involved.
Here’s the Wild Card leaders from Cool Standings:
2011 AL Standings  What are these? |
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| American | W | L | PCT | GB | RS | RA | EXPW | EXPL | DIV | WC | POFF |
| Boston | 85 | 60 | .586 | - | 782 | 629 | 94.6 | 67.4 | 23.9 | 69.2 | 93.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 80 | 64 | .556 | 4.5 | 616 | 545 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 6.7 |
| Los Angeles | 80 | 65 | .552 | 5 | 594 | 558 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 22.9 | 0.8 | 23.7 |
| DIV | - % chance each team has of winning division |
| WC | - % chance each team has of winning the wild card |
| POFF | - % chance each team has of making the playoffs |
The Rays team that was 9 games back at the beginning of September now stands just 4 games back in the loss column after winning 3 straight and going 7-3 in their last 10. The Angels are equally hot, winning 7 of their last 10 and picking up 2 games on the division leading Rangers. The Rangers are at 64 losses, so if the Angels pass them up for AL West then you have two teams just 4 games back of the reeling Red Sox. With 17 to play, a 4 game lead should hold if you can just manage to play .500 baseball. But the Sox need to right their ship quickly, there’s still time to blow it and the wheels seem to be coming off just as other teams are putting things together.
Looking at their schedule, the Sox have 5 games remaining facing the Rays including the afternoon’s showdown of Jon Lester facing James Shields. After an off day on Monday, Boston plays 17 games in 17 days, including a 9/19 doubleheader against the O’s and 3 more facing the Yanks at the stadium. The Rays have their fate in their own hands, and the bruised Bostonians get little chance rest and lick their wounds.
As delicious as it would be to see the Sox miss the playoffs, especially with the way the MSM crowned them as unbeatable before the season started, this poses risks for the Yanks. Pitching staffs get shortened in October, and we’re seeing firsthand how good Weaver and Haren can be. Detroit’s lead is safe, and they’ve been hotter (9-1) than anyone in the league the past few weeks. Many fans fear facing Verlander twice in a 5 game set, but right now its unclear who the Yanks will be facing. If the Sox fall out of it, the Wild Card may not even come out of their division. One thing can be said for certain, the playoffs this year will be wide open, with no clear favorite heading into the post season. Fasten your seat belts Yankee fans, this could be a bumpy ride.
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4 Responses to AL Playoff picture quickly becomes muddied
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TIQ IQ
Although it would be fun to see the Red Sox fall on their face, if Beckett is compromised, it would be in the Yankees best interest to see Texas and Boston make the playoffs. Based on how they have struggled against top pitching, Tampa and Anaheim would be tougher to beat in a short a series.
I agree. If the Yanks face the Angels, Detroit, Tampa or a healthy Red Sox team, they would at a disadvantage in the daily pitching match ups in each of those series. The only team they’d have an edge on in the rotation would be Texas, or the currently beat up Red Sox. The Yanks have a big lineup edge in most of those series, and (playoff) bullpens should be pretty solid across the board. Again, I don’t see a clear favorite this year.
only thing better than yanks winning world series is red sox not making the playoffs…
Sabathia could outduel the other team’s ace and vice versa.
While the Yanks probably have the weakest of the rotations among the postseason contenders – I’d say Detroit, Texas, and Los Angeles have better top-to-bottom rotations while Boston and Tampa Bay have better 1-2s in Beckett-Lester and Shields-Price respectively – the Yanks have the best offense, bullpen, and bench, and have a defense good enough to play error-free (as long as Nunez is nowhere near a field.)