You either know that CC Sabathia may be on his way to the best season of his career, or you don’t follow the Yankees (and probably baseball). The purpose of this post isn’t to gush all over the screen about how awesome CC is (although I thought about it). Instead, I want to see precisely where the big guy stacks up. He is, without question, one of the best three or four pitchers in the American League. Is he the best?
He is, according to fWAR. In fact, Sabathia’s fWAR of 5.8 is the best in either league, making the Yankee Ace the best pitcher on a little planet I like to call Earth. While fWAR is an excellent all around metric for quickly assessing players, it isn’t the only stat out there. With that in mind, I wanted to cull a variety of statistics — mostly from Fangraphs, but bWAR as well — to see if CC was truly the best. I used fWAR as my initial barometer. The next three best pitchers in the AL, according to fWAR, are Justin Verlander (a beast in his own right), Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. Here’s how they stack up, with the leader in any given stat highlighted in yellow:
Before I go any further, it is worth mentioning that all four of these guys are excellent pitchers having phenomenal seasons. That said, we can immediately ding Haren from the list. He has the highest ERA, FIP and xFIP of the group. He’s also pitched the fewest innings, and while he’s made one fewer start than either Verlander or Sabathia, unless he plans on pitching at least 15 innings in his next appearance he’s off the pace of the big dogs. He’s having a great year, but he’s not the best of the class.
The next to get cut is Jered Weaver, although he’s much closer to the head of the class than Haren is. Weaver’s ERA is incredible (and probably gets a boost from the likes of the A’s and Mariners) but his FIP is less good and he has the worst xFIP of the lot. Simply put, Weaver is getting lucky. That isn’t to say that his pitching has been anything less than incredible. He’s keeping his walks down and the ball in the park, but if all were fair in baseball stats he wouldn’t be getting quite as much attention as he is.
And then there were two. Right now you have to figure that CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander will finish first and second in the AL Cy Young vote, in some order. Who’s been better so far? Their numbers are surprisingly similar. Verlander’s ERA is a bit better, but his FIP is worse and they have almost an identical xFIP. They both pitch deep into games, but Verlander goes a bit deeper (with an assist from Jim Leyland). Verlander has a tangible edge in strike outs and walks, but he gives it back with the long ball. CC is doing an amazing job of keeping the ball in the park this year, and has lapped Verlander in the at category. CC is ahead in fWAR, but Verlander crushes him in bWAR.
It pains me to write this, but Verlander is having the better season. He allows fewer runs per start (with some luck), goes deeper into games (because his manager is crazy), strikes out more batters and allows fewer walks. He gives up a lot more homers than CC, but makes up for it with his other advantages. It’s close, but I have to disagree with fWAR here and say that Verlander is putting up better stats on the year than CC, barely so. That said, the Tigers let Verlander throw way too many pitches, and the old school fan in me wants only one man on the mound in key game in October: Carsten Charles Sabathia.
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11 Responses to We all know CC is great, but is he … the BEST?
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TIQ IQ
Great post, Mike. While I think your assessment of Verlander as the current top pitcher in the AL based on everything you cited above is probably correct, the gap between he and CC is a small one, and it becomes even smaller if you factor in the whole AL East/AL Central thing.
That’s not to say that Verlander wouldn’t also be a beast in the East, but if you throw out CC’s three starts against Boston thus far — which have, incidentally enough, been his three worst outings of the season — his ERA drops to 2.12.
Thanks for the praise Lar.
I agree that there is very little day light between Verlander’s over all numbers and CC’s. They’re so close that Fangraphs favors the big guy.
However, I’m not sure how much the strength of schedule plays into the difference. I’m not 100% sure that ERA- considers strength of schedule, but ERA+ does, and Verlander leads CC 173 to 166.
As frustrating as they were (I was at one of the games) those starts against Boston happened. While I do believe that if these two traded divisions CC’s numbers would improve and Verlander’s would suffer, the impact is difficult to quantify. I gotta go by the numbers.
That said, I believe by the end of the season CC may hold the crown out right. He’s been on an incredible role. If that performance continues he’ll lap everyone.
i think you forgot about beckett… his year is debatably better than all these guys
Beckett’s certainly having a fantastic year himself, but in terms of fWAR he’s not even in the ballpark compared to Sabathia and Verlander. CC’s at 5.8, Verlander at 5.6 and Beckett’s at 3.4.
Or if you prefer bWAR, Beckett’s actually at 5.0, but still behind Verlander, Weaver and Sabathia. Again, Beckett’s clearly having a stellar year, but not a better one than the hurlers analyzed in this post.
Beckett isn’t close to the other guys. His rate stats, WHIP, etc are basically the same as Jered Weaver’s but with 30 less innings.
throw the stats out, who do you want to pitch the 7th game in the WS..for me it’s halladay or i hate to say this, beckett,
Why not CC by that logic? He has almost as many rings as Beckett and more than Halladay.
Beckett is repeating his 2007 performance in many ways. Yes, he’s having a great year, but he’s not efficient and doesn’t go deep into games. He’s pitched substantially fewer innings than the other guys.
[...] The Yankee Analysts took a statistical look at CC Sabathia’s year and how is stacks up against some of the other very good American League pitchers. [...]
I’m sorry but I have to agree with bornwithpinstripes, the character of a man and determination in not related to stats, cause those can be made and broken by just a bad day
[...] as anything more than a good starting indicator for more thorough analysis). Earlier in the season I took a closer look at the numbers and concluded that Verlander was having a better season than CC, despite his lower WAR. My purpose [...]