TYA Mailbag: A glance at the 2012 Yankee roster

By On August 8, 2011 · 20 Comments · In Mailbag

Long time TYA reader Travis recently sent us a series of questions about possible roster moves for the Yankees next season. Rather than reprint all the questions here, I’ll summarize his queries as follows. He was curious to get our opinion on the future in pinstripes for many players currently on the Yankee roster, including starters Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, reliever Luis Ayala (and I’ll add Cory Wade to this discussion as well) and bench players Eric Chavez and Ramiro Pena. These are interesting questions and we’re happy to take a moment to answer them.

The Starters - It remains unclear whether or not either Colon or Garcia will be back with the Yankees next year. It goes without saying that they have both pitched brilliantly for the Bombers. Colon has a 3.33 ERA and a 3.47 FIP in 113.2 innings so far this season, while Garcia has a 3.22 ERA and a 3.59 FIP over 117.1 innings so far this season, entering Sunday night’s game. Fangraphs estimates that through Saturday they were worth a combined $20.1 million for the Yankees, which is many multiples of what they are due to be paid.

The problem is that the Yankees need starting pitchers who can give them at least 180 innings of work in the regular season, and at least another 10 innings in the post season. It’s just too soon to know if either pitcher is capable of that. It would be foolish to dismiss the risk that one or both of these pitchers starts to tire as the season drags on or, worse still, gets injured.

Furthermore, it remains unclear what the Yankees intend to do this off season. Assuming the team resigns CC Sabathia (a safe assumption), the Yankees could easily find themselves with four pitching slots filled, with the remaining three going to A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova. That would leave just one rotation spot available, and while the Yankees haven’t expressed a strong interest in C.J. Wilson or Yu Darvish (that I know of), the team may choose to fill that spot with a free agent, or perhaps even one of its many talented young prospects.

For these reasons it is difficult to forecast the futures of Colon and Garcia. It seems unlikely that both would be back with the Bombers next year, while I would put the odds of one of them coming back at 50-50. I’ll stop short however of guessing which one will come back. Colon has better stuff, but Garcia has been more durable. There are reasons to favor either pitcher.

I’ve written before that the Yankees are playing with house money with Colon and Garcia so far this season. My attitude is that rather than analyze such an incredible stroke of luck it’s best to enjoy the ride.

The Relievers -  To my shock, the Yankees have gotten strong relief performances from Luis Ayala and Cory Wade. I was certain these guys would serve as nothing more than pulses with arms, and I’ve been proven wrong before. Ayala has given the Yankees 35.2 innings of 1.51 ERA, 3.40 FIP baseball while Wade has given the Bombers 19.1 innings of 1.86 ERA and 3.63 FIP pitching. Neither pitcher has been as good as his ERA would suggest, but they’ve both done a respectable job out of the bullpen.

The problem is that it is incredibly difficult to predict bullpen performance, let alone bullpen rosters. Once upon a time Edwar Ramirez and Jose Veras were fixtures in the Yankee bullpen. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if both of these guys wind up on the Yankees to start next season, provided they continue to pitch well. The Yankees have shown a willingness to keep the bullpen together season to season, and an aptitude for mixing and matching mid season if those roster decisions don’t work out. For those reasons it is a low risk decision to keep either of these guys around as long as one of them is valuable.

The Bench – Eric Chavez is probably gone next season. He’s giving the Yankees a .355 wOBA and managed to remain solid with the bat even after his long trip to the DL. He’s also been excellent in the field, passing the eye test while also accumulating a 2.8 UZR in limited glove work. If his performance holds up and he stays injury free for the remainder of the season he would be a prime candidate for a one year deal and a starter’s job somewhere next year. If that doesn’t happen, he’s certainly worth keeping around, but Fangraphs says he’s already been worth $3.8 million this season. He could easily find himself with an incentive laden deal for the 2012 season.

Finally, Ramiro Pena isn’t going anywhere. It’s not that he has much value; it is actually because he has so little value that the Yankees will keep him around. It seems like every season the Yankees need an extra body that can play a few infield positions. Pena serves as the worst case scenario for that role. He’s so bad with the bat that there is little risk that he will ever cost the Yankees more than the league minimum. As a result, they’ll keep him around, mostly in Scranton, just in case some one gets hurt.

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20 Responses to TYA Mailbag: A glance at the 2012 Yankee roster

  1. Steve says:
    August 8, 2011 at 1:04 pm

    Hughes should not be handed a spot in the rotation…….let him compete. Nova obviously has one locked up. I would re-sign Garcia, so we’d have CC, AJ, Nova, Garcia and whomever as the 5th starter. That’s just not a very good rotation, unfortunately.

    Reply
    • MJ Recanati says:
      August 8, 2011 at 1:08 pm

      I just don’t understand why Nova has anything locked up at this point. He’s pitched well in a few recent starts but the evaluation process should continue.

      Reply
      • Duh, Innings! says:
        August 8, 2011 at 3:23 pm

        10-4, 3.81 ERA so far this year. He’s earned at least the fifth starter job to start 2012. I think he’ll be in the rotation to start 2012 because he’s young, cheap, promising, experienced, and already done some solid work for the Yanks. The only way I don’t see him being a lock for next year’s rotation is if he really goes downhill from hereonin.

        I doubt the Yanks will re-sign Garcia and/or Colon. If the Yanks are smart they will let go of Sabathia when he opts out and asks for 7 or 8 years he is not worth because he is already 31 and too heavy to risk giving 2016-18/19 to cuz that’s what you’re doing by signing him for 7 or 8 years. ‘Say they keep him. That’s Sabathia, Burnett, and who? Even if the Yanks signed C.J. Wilson (another guy they should stay clear of), that’s still two open slots. Ya can’t sign another guy and who could you get via trade before the season starts? Who’s worth giving up one of the top prospects for? You most likely have to and will go with Nova and Hughes. Banuelos, Betances, Noesi, Phelps, Warren, and whoever else in the minors have done nothing to merit the call over Nova or Hughes. Noesi is the only pitcher among those listed who has any MLB experience but none as a starter.

        Reply
        • MJ Recanati says:
          August 8, 2011 at 4:01 pm

          “He’s earned at least the fifth starter job to start 2012.”

          I agree that the Yankees will most likely proceed in this way but I don’t agree that it’s wise to guarantee young pitchers anything without properly evaluating them and making them compete for the job.

          We’ve seen some very good things from Nova and that’s encouraging. But to think he’s simply turned the corner because his last few starts were good is overly optimistic in my opinion.

          “If the Yanks are smart they will let go of Sabathia when he opts out and asks for 7 or 8 years he is not worth because he is already 31 and too heavy to risk giving 2016-18/19″

          CC Sabathia is absolutely worth whatever they give him. The Yankees will pay him because they need his services and because, waistline notwithstanding, he’s been every bit the pitcher they hoped he’d be when he signed in 2009. He’s durable, he’s dependable and, most importantly, he’s outstanding.

          Reply
  2. Steve says:
    August 8, 2011 at 1:06 pm

    Also, as to this year, I think Hughes needs to be sent to AAA. He clearly has not outpitched AJ (who, while he has been very mediocre, has been quite a bit better than Phil) and obviously Nova has been very good. I don’t see why there is this competition – the odd man out is Hughes. Let him go to AAA. After that, I don’t know, because their season ends in a few weeks

    Reply
    • MJ Recanati says:
      August 8, 2011 at 1:09 pm

      I don’t see what AAA would do for Hughes at this point.

      Reply
      • Steve says:
        August 8, 2011 at 5:58 pm

        He has to pitch…….I don’t think he’s particularly good, but I don’t like seeing him just sitting on the bench, twiddling his thumbs. Nova has entrenched himself in the rotation and so now Phil won’t even pitch until at least Saturday, and that’s only if Garcia is skipped.

        Reply
  3. bg90027 says:
    August 8, 2011 at 1:55 pm

    I could see sending Noesi down and having Hughes take the long relief/mop-up role but I can’t see sending Hughes down. He deserves a little more of a look given how well he pitched in his last start. By the time they make a decision on him, there won’t even be that much time in the minor league season so why burn Hughes’ option.

    Garcia and Colon both might have better offers than the Yankees would make them next year. One at most will be back.

    I doubt anyone would sign Chavez to be a starter. He’s made of glass. Even he says he wouldn’t hold up as a starter. Someone else might make a better offer to him with more playing time but I think he could be back. There’s been a lot of playing time that would have been available to him in NY this year if he had been healthy.

    Reply
  4. Phil C says:
    August 8, 2011 at 1:59 pm

    The more I see how reluctant the Yanks are to promote Montero, they more I believe that he will be in a package for a front end starter during the off season.

    I’m not too concerned that neither Colon or Garcia could give the team much more that 150 innings next year. They could use Man Ban or D Bets for some spot starts to keep the older guys fresh. Off course this would require managing the innings carefully at the AAA level to allow this.

    Ayala and Wade will probably be back, at the very least until Joba can return.

    Cashman’s done quite well finding bench players who can make an impact. I wouldn’t hazard a guess who they’d be, but I’m not concerned.

    Reply
    • MJ Recanati says:
      August 8, 2011 at 2:38 pm

      I agree. At this point I have to believe that the Yankees have next to no intention of keeping Montero. They could’ve and should’ve called him up long ago.

      Reply
  5. Duh, Innings! says:
    August 8, 2011 at 4:10 pm

    My 2012 Yankees Roster (To Start The Season):

    Rotation:

    1 .Jake Peavy acquired from the Chi-Sox off waivers in a potential walk year (“potential” because he has a $22M club option for 2013 he better pitch well enough in 2012 to get)

    2. Pettitte signed for 2012 only thus in a walk year. I would not rule out him returning.

    3. Derek Lowe in a walk year (trade Burnett and $1.5M to Atlanta for Lowe straight up) or Burnett if the trade couldn’t be made (perhaps the Yanks could trade Burnett’s final year under contract in the offseason)

    4. Nova

    5. Hughes

    The entire AAA rotation is rotation insurance. The Yanks could sign a veteran starter who’d be the long man in the pen to be this as well (re-sign Colon for the pen?)

    I would go with this rotation and go in-house for replacements when needed, no trades.

    Bullpen:

    Closer – Rivera
    8th Inning Man – Robertson
    7th Inning Man – Soriano
    Primary Lefty – Logan
    Secondary Lefty – Feliciano
    Sixth Reliever – Ayala re-signed
    Seventh Reliever – Wade re-signed (or Colon re-signed if he’s willing to be a reliever which I could see him being as he may not have a World Series ring yet)

    I would not be adverse to a trade as long as it didn’t include the Yanks giving up a top prospect.

    Bench:

    Backup C – Cervelli or a veteran
    Backup 1B – Swisher (Jones in RF in games Swisher mans 1B)
    Backup 2B/3B/SS – Nunez who gets at least 20 starts at 2B, 40 starts at 3B, and 40 starts at SS so he gets 100 total starts and 400-450 PA. He should be the Yankees “tenth man)
    Backup LF/CF/RF – Andruw Jones re-signed for 2012 only

    There’s always guys out there to shake things up.

    Starting Nine/Batting Order:

    Gardner LF L
    Granderson CF L
    Teixiera 1B S
    Rodriguez 3B R
    Cano 2B L
    Swisher RF S
    Jeter SS R
    Montero DH S
    Martin re-signed C R

    Jeter and whoever hits worst against LHP between Gardner and Granderson switch places in games where the Yanks draw a lefty starter.

    There could be an open audition for DH. The Yanks could also trade for Ty Wigginton who could be the DH and backup 1B/3B and further develop Montero who’s only 21.

    Basically, I’d just let 2016-18/19*** Sabathia walk after he opts out, bring back Pettitte, Martin, Ayala, Wade, and Jones, start Montero or have an open call for DH, and maybe sign a veteran backup catcher and/or trade for Wigginton.

    ***I put “2016-18/19″ in front of Sabathia because he will opt out, want seven or eight years, and get either.

    Reply
  6. Jay says:
    August 8, 2011 at 4:19 pm

    I actually think Pena would have some light value to another team. We traded the Attorney General for a live body a few years ago. We can do better with Pena.

    Reply
  7. TYA Mailbag: A glance at the 2012 Yankee roster | New York Yankees … | Yankees News Source says:
    August 8, 2011 at 5:02 pm

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    Reply
  8. smurfy says:
    August 9, 2011 at 12:33 am

    I like the idea of Pena working on his batting in Scranton, insurance on the infield. Nunie, much complained of, wasn’t even mentioned, presumably because it’s accepted he’s a good backup and bench player.

    I agree with BG90027 that Chavez will be back.

    Barring colapses, all four of the pitchers mentioned should be back. The Yanks would be smart to sign Garcia and Colon flexibly, if it’s possible, enabling them to pitch on the big club when needed, or Scranton when not.

    Reply
  9. T.O. Chris says:
    August 10, 2011 at 3:39 am

    I would only bring either Colon or Garcia back in the same way they came in this year. Which is to say on minor league deals, with invites to spring training. They both have done great this year but it’s highly unlikely either repeats this season, and neither should be guaranteed a roster spot based on it.

    There’s no harm in bringing Ayala or Wade back next season on 1 year deals, but given how frequent bullpen turnover is I wouldn’t expect either to finish the year on the team.

    I like CJ Wilson, but anything over 5 years scares me, and I think the Rangers will go 6.

    I’m very interested to see what the Yankees do regarding Yu Darvish. Japanese pitchers scare me some, but he is clearly the most talented pitcher to come of Japan in a long time. Maybe even of all time, and he only turns 25 August 19th. They’ve been scouting him for years, so if they feel like signing him I wouldn’t be against it. Though I have no idea what he’s worth money wise.

    Reply
  10. Harry Swanson says:
    August 17, 2011 at 7:35 pm

    This is my 2012 Yankees:

    Lineup:
    1. Jeter – SS
    2. Granderson – CF
    3. Teixeira – 1B
    4. Rodriguez – 3B
    5. Cano – 2B
    6. Swisher – RF (Re-sign)
    7. Montero – DH/C (Called-up)
    8. Martin – C (Re-signed)
    9. Gardner – LF

    Rotation:
    1. Sabathia
    2. Hughes
    3. Pettite (Decides to come back)
    4. Burnett
    5. Nova

    Bullpen:
    Closer: Mariano Rivera
    8th inning: David Robertson
    7th inning: Rafael Soriano/Joba Chamberlian
    Pimary Lefty: Boone Logan
    Secondary Lefty: Pedro Feliciano
    Other Reliver: Probably sign somebody

    Note: They will probably sign 1 or 2 People that are not on the list

    Bench:
    C: Cervelli
    1B: Swisher (Jones in RF)
    2B/SS/3B: Nunez
    OF: Jones/Rick Ankiel
    DH: Jones

    Reply
  11. jpop says:
    September 25, 2011 at 12:37 pm

    1 jeter ss
    2 granderson cf
    3 tex 1b
    4 arod 3b
    5 cano 2b
    6 montero dh
    7 swisher rf
    8 martin c
    9 gardner lf

    1 sabathia
    2 nova
    3 garcia
    4 burnett
    5 darvish

    bullpen
    cl rivera
    su d rob
    susoriano
    rhp joba
    rhp wade
    lhp logan
    lhp feliciano
    lr banuelos

    bench
    c romine
    of jones
    if nunez

    Reply
  12. saaauwhhaaat says:
    December 9, 2011 at 7:55 pm

    does jacoby play for the yanks now??

    Reply
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