Thinking about the future
Yesterday, I profiled the Yankees’ success (luck?) in their “scrap heap” pick ups and how they’ve performed. Now I’d like to talk about the future of four of them, and get your take on what the Yankees will do with them.
We’ll start with Eric Chavez. I like Chavez, but I don’t see him in a Yankee uniform in 2012. I’m willing to bet that if he shows he can stay healthy for the rest of 2011, someone–maybe not a contender–but someone will give him at least a shot at a full time job.
Next, we’ve got the dynamic duo of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. If both can stay healthy and effective for the remainder of 2011, both will be worth looks. The pitching market is going to be pretty bare after CC Sabathia and C.J. Wilson, so anything the Yankees can find for cheap could be valuable. The question will be then, whether or not the Yankees are willing to roll the dice on either one of them again. I think we can safely say that they won’t roll the dice on both of them again so which one should it be? As friend of the blog Jamal Granger put it, you pull a Joker on them: Offer them the same deal with a relatively low base ($2-2.5M?) with some IP incentives. Whoever takes it first wins.
The question of Russell Martin is the most difficult and like all things catching related in the Yankee world, this revolves around Jesus Montero. If the Yankees feel Jesus Montero can catch ever day, I’m certain that he will be catching with Martin backing him up. If they don’t, and Montero is mostly DHing, Martin will again be the starter. The advantage Martin has, of course, is that he’s still under team control next year. While we may question if Chavez, Colon, and Garcia are with the team next year, the query in regards to Martin is that of his role.
So, whom would you guys keep of Colon/Garcia? How would you handle the catching situation?
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“So, whom would you guys keep of Colon/Garcia? How would you handle the catching situation?”
Colon/Garcia: I agree with your approach but don’t actually see a reason why only one should be retained. If both continue to be effective and both are healthy, why not keep both with the understanding that the law of averages will likely strike one (or both?) down next year? Isn’t the thought that you can never have enough good pitching? Why would the Yankees want to cast one arm aside when keeping both affords them the luxury of bringing Noesi/Nova/Banuelos/Warren along slowly next year?
Catchers: I think the problem solves itself as long as Montero can hit enough to make us forget his defensive shortcomings. Cervelli is under team control through 2015 so he’d be a perfectly attractive trade chip to some team looking for a cost-controlled BUC with major league catching experience. Maybe the Yanks can spin him off to Houston for an org. arm and their first pick in the Rule V draft next year? Something small along those lines. Posada is gone which opens the door to a Martin/Montero catching duo next year.
Despite his age, I’d prefer Colon because of his fast ball. He matches up better against strong hitting teams (Boston, TEX). I think that Montero will be traded if the Yanks can land a second ace to go with CC. Otherwise, I agree with your either / or analysis of Martin & Montero.
I have a hypothetical question, if A-Rod is banned for gambling, would you resign Chavez or trade for a 3rd baseman? I’ve not really thought about this, so I’m not sure who the Yanks could target. Maybe David Wright. Also, if A-Rod were to be banned, could the Yanks terminate his contract?
Thats not happening…total nonstory overblown by ESPN who is citing STAR magazine as a source…
Banned for what? Playing poker with movie stars? Allegedly being in the same room as someone that used cocaine? Ignorning a non-binding request from the commissioner?
A-Rod isn’t being banned and the Yankees are neither voiding his contract (they’d have no grounds to do so) nor trading for a third baseman.
The Yanks could tell him they don’t want him anymore and one of two things would happen:
1. Buyout.
2. Trade where the Yanks throw in a ton of money and that money would be equivalent to a buyout.
I can’t see A-Rod refusing to leave / staying where he isn’t wanted.
In both scenarios — buyout or trade with cash — the Yankees end up losing. It’s pointless to think about and wouldn’t make the Yankees better.
It’s not “pointless” to think about, it’s something the Yanks have to seriously consider considering A-Rod just turned 36 and is basically having his 2010 Jeter year, yet he gets a free pass.
A-Rod’s days as an elite hitter are over. He’s signed through 2017. He’s probably a full-time DH or a below average 3B in 2013. He needs to go back to Seattle. If Felix Hernandez signs elsewhere when he becomes a free agent and Ichiro retires or is a shell of a player he was like he looks like now when FH leaves (possibly for the Yanks), Seattle has no stars/gate draw. Enter A-Rod back with the organization he started with.
‘Say the Yanks buy out A-Rod or trade him and cash this offseason. The new 3B could be Chavez, Wigginton acquired via trade, or both. There’s your 3B for 2012. The Yanks can cross the bridge called “Who’s at 3B for 2013?” when they get to it. Ideally they trade for a top prospect they could start at 3B in 2013.
The Yanks win with a buyout or a trade with cash (to me a buyout where you get something in return) because while they owe money, they save money.
Hypothetically they could buyout A-Rod or trade him and cash this offseason then trade for an MLB-ready rookie 3B they could stick in the #9 slot starting next year, and this kid could be the Yanks 3B for the next six years for a fraction of the cost of 2012 A-Rod. Trade for Wigginton to be the DH and insurance 3B. If the kid isn’t cutting it, just send him back down to AAA, start Wigginton, have someone else DH (Montero?)
I think it’s too early to say that A-Rod’s days as an elite hitter are over. At a minimum, he remains a very good hitter. But if it turns out that he is done, why on earth would any other team want to take him with a contract through 2017? Least of all Seattle, where he is still “Pay-Rod” for leaving.
“A-Rod just turned 36 and is basically having his 2010 Jeter year, yet he gets a free pass.”
First, let’s dispense with the nonsense that A-Rod gets a free pass at anything in this life (or the next). A-Rod is the most hyper-scrutinized baseball player on the planet and perhaps only Barry Bonds has been a more universally-detested player. Whether you like or dislike Rodriguez is entirely your choice but if you can’t concede that there hasn’t been a single instance in which Rodriguez has ever skated by without criticism then there’s just no purpose to continuing this conversation.
Second, comparing Rodriguez’s 2011 season to Jeter’s 2010 season is absurd.
Derek Jeter 2010: .270/.340/.370, 1.3 bWAR (739 PA)
Alex Rodriguez 2011: .295/.366/.485, 3.2 bWAR (344 PA)
Rodriguez has done more in 2011 than Jeter did in twice as many PA’s in 2010. So let’s dispense with the absurd hyperbole.
No team in baseball would trade for Rodriguez without the Yankees chipping in significant cash and since there just aren’t that many third basemen in baseball that can replace Rodriguez’s production the Yankees would essentially be starting an inferior player on their team while the superior player was playing elsewhere on the Yankees’ dime. That’s flatly illogical.
Where we agree is that Rodriguez is clearly diminished from his heyday. But even in his diminished state, Rodriguez is still the second-most valuable third baseman in baseball by fWAR (4.0, second only to Jose Bautista’s 7.0). Adrian Beltre (3.9) and Kevin Youkilis (3.8) are right behind Rodriguez but this more than illustrates the point that a diminished player that hasn’t played in five weeks is still among the best players at his position.
I won’t touch the whole “Rodriguez to Seattle” thing because I don’t understand your point and because it’s wholly irrational to expect the Mariners — a team that isn’t contending — to want to bring back a player they absolutely hate and couldn’t afford.
I feel they need to offer to bring both Garcia and Colon back next season unless of course either, or both, just implode or get hurt before this season is out. Even with a pay increase, their salaries would still be fairly reasonable. Chavez, I think, will also return because at this point, a platoon may be what is best for him. I don’t think he could play everyday even if offered that option. And based on what was reportedly said by him, he realizes this as well. I love the guy- I hope he returns. Same with Martin, who is an excellent defender. Assuming Montero does make the big club next season, I can’t imagine he’ll be handed the FT catching job- not based on all the reports you read about his defensive inadequacies. I could see him as perhaps the primary DH and back up catcher. I love Cervelli’s energy, but I see him as the odd man out(unless Montero is traded this off season for a pitcher).
The average age for a catcher to be brought up in the major leagues is around 25 so Montero is already way ahead of the curve. However the Yankees aren’t going to hand him the keys to the entire rotation nor should they. His value is with his bat not his defense. I think the Yankees should have Montero on what i call the “V Mart” plan. Montero should be the starting DH with Martin as the catcher. Montero should catch 2 days a week then gradually increase his workload, easing him into being the starter. Additionally i think Montero should be the primary backup 1B when Tex needs a day off. He is through with his arbitration years the same year Tex’s contract runs out. Assuming scouts are correct on Montero hes going to be a special hitter with questionable defense behind the plate, which leads me to believe he would have to be taken off the position anyway and now you immediately have a fill in for Tex too. Romine and JR Murphy are better bets to be the long term solution to stick at catcher anyway. This way we get a first baseman and still leave the door open to either Romine, Murphy, or Sanchez. Cervelli is a below average player in every way, whatever the Yankees can trade him for would be great.
As far as pitching I would try and get a handshake deal with Garcia the same way they did Javy Vasquez. Offer him arbitration and let him walk, get the picks. Id be open to Colon more so because hes a consistant strike thrower and that would work out of the pen as well as a starter,but I really dont want him back either. Dont make the same mistake with these two that we did with Shawn Chacon and Jarret Wright. I would much rather see a rotation of CC, Hughes, Burnett, Nova and let David Phelps, Adam Warren, Hector Noesi, DJ Mitchell all battle it out. Banuelos and Betances shouldnt be in discussion for a rotational spot yet, as we have all seen what happens when the Yankees cave in to the media and rish their highly touted pitching prospects up to the majors. Phelps and Warren are supposed to be solid mid rotation type pitchers. I kinda like Noesi in the Al Aceves role though i think he would be a huge asset there.
According to MLBTM’s update as of July 26th, Garcia has almost pitched himself up to Type B status. If that happens then, yes, perhaps it makes sense to make the handshake deal and get a sandwich round pick for him.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/eli.html
Garcia/Colon? Neither unless they are willing to accept minor-league deals as insurance. Look, The Yankees got very lucky with both guys this year. There’s not much reason to expect a repeat performance (or even an extension to the end of this year) and even less reason for either one of those guys to take up a rotation spot that can be held by Nova, Noesi, Warren, Phelps or Baneulos. In an emergency there will be another scrap heap to scavenge.
I’d re-sign Garcia and Colon to duke it out for three rotation slots with Hughes and Nova.
Sabathia/Burnett/Three from Garcia, Colon, Hughes, and Nova
If Colon is the odd man out, he is rotation insurance. Ditto for Garcia. If Nova is the odd man out, he starts in AAA. If Hughes is, he’s in the pen and put him on the trading block.
“If Hughes is [the odd man out], he’s in the pen and put him on the trading block.”
His trade value in the market next year would be seriously undercut by his 2013 Arb-3 status and several years of injuries/disappointing performances. The Yankees are better off keeping Hughes and hoping he puts it all together. Trading him for fifty cents on the dollar would be a waste of resources and time.
How would it be a waste of resources and time?
If the Yanks want something and trading Hughes will get them that, they will trade Hughes for that, or not and get it with whoever else.
They offered Hughes in a package for Jimenez Colorado rejected only because of the players after Hughes.
It would be a waste of resources and time because the closer Hughes gets to free agency and the greater his arbitration salary becomes, the less value he has to other teams as a cost-controlled commodity. Given the overall lack of consistency (and health) in his career, why would teams trade much value back to the Yanks for Hughes?
Hughes is making $2.7M this year and is at -0.6 bWAR for the year. Assuming his contract goes up to around $3.5M next year and $4.5M-$5M in 2013, it’s debatable, based on his career track record, that he’ll be able to throw off enough value to justify even that meager (by MLB standards) salary.
Thus, for the Yankees to trade Hughes as he approaches free agency and begins to get expensive, teams would be willing to provide a lot less in return. Why would the Yankees want to trade Hughes at a distressed price?
As for the Jimenez trade, you answered your own question: the Rockies wouldn’t take a deal centered around Hughes for the dual reasons that he’s been inconsistent (and unhealthy) and he’s not cheap/controlled for much longer.
Actually, Chavez said he had offers for full time or more time jobs but went to the Yanks where he wouldn’t have those physical demands … he knows he is brittle, I don’t think he wants a full time gig.
Then again, money can make people do funny things…
If, at the end of the season, Garcia and Colon are still performing at about the level they have to date, then I think the Yankees have to think seriously about trying to re-sign them both. They are different from Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon and other “scrapheap” pitchers, in that they have long track records of great success pitching in the major leagues. It may be that age and/or injury will catch up to them, but they have long since established that they have skills.
Of course, it also depends on what the other options for the rotation are on the trade or free agent market. So while this is fun to talk about it, it’s also pretty early to worry about their roles in 2012.
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If the money is right, re-up both Garcia and Colon. As Matt wrote, the free agent pitching market is thin, which makes the trade pitching market that much more attractive. Worse case scenario, the Yankees have insurance and and a theoretical pitching surplus. If either Colon or Garcia breaks down, then the Yankees DFA them. If they both work out, there is too much of a good thing, and the Yankees feel secure with moving one of them, Cash can flip one of them.
Regarding Martin, I am all for keeping him. I wouldn’t want Jesus to break in as a starting catcher; I’m a much larger fan of mixing him up with DH duties, maybe catching 2 out of every 3 games. This would allow Martin to rest (which I’m guessing may help him offensively, albeit without evidence) and Martin could also mentor Montero on his fielding. If Montero proves himself as a catcher against all disbelief, great, the Yankees are once again in a position of having too much of a good thing and they can decide if they want to move Martin.
Chavez is a great pick up – on the right deal, I wouldn’t have a problem retaining him. Laird has had an okay season in AAA, but it wouldn’t hurt him to have another, especially if the Yankees can teach him to walk, which would take care of his largest offensive short coming.