(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
In complete contrast to preseason expectations, the 2011 Yankees have mostly been a team lead by its pitching. Not only is the team’s ERA+ of 119 higher than its OPS+ of 112, but according to bWAR, the Yankees’ pitching staff has almost accumulated as many wins above replacement as it offense (20.2 to 21.4).
Yankees’ Monthly ERA and Runs Scored Per Game
Source: Baseball-reference.com
In August, however, the profile of the team has started to change. During the month, the Yankees have scored a whopping 6.1 runs per game, while leading the majors with a wOBA of .381, far outdistancing the second place Cubs at .356. By just about every measure, the Yankees have been the Bronx Bombers during the dog days of August.
Just as the Yankees’ hitting has gone to another level, the pitching has taken a turn for the worse. The team’s ERA of 4.14 since the start of August ranks eighth in the American League, the lowest position of any month. What’s more, the starters’ ERA of 4.94 is at least a full run higher than every other month’s rate. In other words, during August, the Yankees’ rotation has been composed of five A.J. Burnetts.
Yankees’ Monthly Rotation and Bullpen ERA
Source: fangraphs.com
Although the cumulative ERAs of Yankees’ starters in August represent close to the worst case scenario at the beginning of the season, on an individual basis, there is room for optimism. Although veterans like Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have been slowed by either injury or ineffectiveness, the young tandem of Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova have turned in a combined five starts with a game score above 60 (four of which have been above 70). If Hughes and Nova can maintain their second half resurgence, and CC Sabathia returns to his general excellence, the current lull in starting pitcher performance should be mitigated, especially once the team returns to a five-man rotation.
Considering the Yankees have the best record in the A.L., as well as the top ERA+ in the league, it is somewhat ironic that the team’s potential playoff rotation behind Sabathia remains a mystery. With the exception of Burnett, who may not survive in the rotation beyond this weekend’s double header in Baltimore, a case could be made for any one of the four candidates vying for a game 2 start in the ALDS. One the one had, that’s a remarkable testament to the overall depth of the team, but on the other, it raises questions about the viability of the Yankees’ starting rotation once October rolls around. Although the lack of certainty is a little bit disconcerting, the Yankees still have six weeks to figure out their playoff rotation. And, if no obvious choices emerge, continuing to score six runs per game wouldn’t be a bad alternative.
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2 Responses to They Are Who We Thought They Were; Yanks’ August Performance Resembles Preseason Expectations
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TIQ IQ
3-1 vs. the White Sox before they woke up/got hot
1-2 vs. Boston where it could’ve easily been 3-0 had Sabathia not wet his pants vs. the Red Sox a fourth time this year and Mo didn’t wet his pants against the Red Sox a career 14th-15th (???) time.
1-1 vs. Tampa Bay which might’ve been 1-2 had they faced Shields the Sunday before last.
2-1 vs. Kansas City
3-1 vs. Minnesota
What disturbs me about this month and the real tale of this month is the Yanks haven’t smacked up a single #3 or better starter. John Lester, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, David Price, Bruce Chen, and Francisco Liriano all had good or better starts against the Yanks. I doubt they’d have smacked up James Shields had he faced them. This is an ominous sign for the postseason.
They could draw Gonzalez and Cahill for Oakland, Guthrie for Baltimore who shut them down last start, and will probably face Beckett and Lester.
While I could see C.C. being 8 IP 0-2 ER great vs. Detroit or Texas in Game 1 of the ALDS, I could easily see Verlander or Wilson/Ugando matching or outdueling him ER-wise.
Oh yeah, they didn’t draw Jered Weaver in the 8/9-11 series due to him dropping his appeal and starting his suspension for the tiff he had with Detroit.
They lost the game Danny Haren started.
They also missed Mark Buerhle in the 8/1-4 series (he started 7/31 and 8/5.)
Hypothetically, the Yanks could’ve been as many as 2.5 games behind Boston going into tomorrow night’s game if they had faced Buerhle, Weaver, and Shields (3 losses – half-game lead they have over Boston = 2.5 games behind Boston.)
The only #3 or better guy they smacked up this month was Gavin Floyd.