Larry usually writes these previews, but he is on vacation, so I am going to take a stab at it. Try not to point and laugh at any ineptitude you may perceive on my part.
Angels Offense
The Angels have struggled to score runs all season, and are 13th in the AL in runs per game at 3.83. On the positive side, Howie Kendrick is having an excellent year, coupling a 126 wRC+ with excellent defense at second base. Additionally, Peter Bourjos has been slightly above average at the plate, which is a huge boon for Angels as it allows them to play his excellent glove on an everyday basis. First baseman Mark Trumbo has shown very good power, with his 22 home runs somewhat offsetting his .301 OBP. Finally, their collection of infielders (Alberto Callaspo, Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis) has been quite solid, allowing Mike Scioscia to mix and match based on pitcher handedness and game situation.
On the negative side of the ledger, catchers Jeff Mathis and Bobby Wilson have been atrocious at the plate (27 and 37 wRC+ respectively) and Vernon Wells has performed at replacement level (71 wRC+), making the Wells for Napoli trade look about as absurd as we expected it to be. Napoli having a strong year for the team that the Angels are chasing in the standings does nothing to dispel that impression. Two guys who are supposed to be the keys to this lineup, Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter, are having decidedly mediocre years, with Abreu slightly above average at the plate (105 wRC+) and Hunter slightly below average (96 wRC+). Considering that Hunter, Abreu, and Wells often bat 3-4-5 in the Angels batting order, it is easy to see why the club is among the lowest scoring in baseball.
Starters For The Upcoming Series
Tonight’s game is being started by Dan “the one who got away” Haren. Haren is having a spectacular year for the Angels, with a 2.81 ERA and 2.72 FIP in 169.2 innings. Haren throws three types of fastballs, a typical fastball, a cutter, and a splitter, as well as a curve that he mixes in on occasion. The cutter is his go-to pitch and then one that he gets most of his outs on, although the curve is fairly effective as an out pitch as well. He does not walk very many hitters (1.27 per 9) and throws a lot of first pitch strikes (66% compared to league average of 59.2%), so waiting him out might be a poor strategy, as you are likely to look up in the 8th inning and still see Haren on the mound.
Wednesday’s game is being started by either Hisanori Takahashi or Garrett Richards. Keith Law mentioned on Twitter that Richards was being called up, and it is presumed that he will be making the spot start rather than Takahashi. Let’s quickly preview both pitchers, just in case Richards is not in fact tapped for the start. Takahashi is a lefty who has been a reliever all year, and has a 4.15 FIP in 48.1 innings. He has walked 3.54 batters per 9 innings, and has been bitten by the home run bug (6 allowed). He throws a fastball, a slider, and a change, with the latter being his only really effective pitch. He has a reverse platoon split this season, but overall seems to be about equally decent against righties and lefties.
As for Richards, I do not know much about him, but John Sickels wrote about him just a few days ago:
Richards has spent all of 2011 with Double-A Arkansas, with strong results: a 12-1 record, 3.04 ERA, with a 98/39 K/BB in 136 innings with 111 hits allowed. He’s posted a 1.27 GO/AO and allowed eight homers. He’s been especially sharp lately, going 7-0, 2.42 in his last 11 starts, with a 58/16 K/BB in 78 innings and 63 hits allowed.
A 6-3, 215 pound, 23 year-old right-hander, Richards works with a 91-94 MPH sinking fastball, topping out at 95-96. His secondary pitches are a slider, curveball, and changeup. All three show promise, but all three were very erratic in college and have gradually improved in pro ball. Texas League reports confirm this steady improvement, but the fastball remains his bread-and-butter. His control is generally quite good, and his command has improved: keep in mind that control (throwing general strikes) and command (hitting your spots within the strike zone) are not the same thing. Some scouts question his mechanics and worry that his delivery places stress on the shoulder, but so far he’s been very durable.
Thursday’s contest, the lone day game in the series (1:05 start time) is being started by Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood is a rookie who has not been very good at all, with a 4.48 FIP in 123 IP. While that seems far from atrocious for a rookie, his peripherals are not encouraging, with a 4.83 K/9 narrowly outstripping a 4.32 BB/9. Chatwood does not miss bats and puts plenty of people on, with the only saving grace being his decent ground ball rate. Chatwood lives off his fastball, which he throws at 93, and also has a curveball and a changeup. The Yankees should feast on this sort of pitcher, which of course means that he will pitch 7 innings of shutout ball.
Prediction
I have no inclination to actually predict outcomes, as we all know that you cannot predict baseball, Suzyn. But I will point out that the pitching matchups favor the Angels tonight, with Burnett facing Haren, and then the advantage swings to Nova and Colon against Richards/Takahashi and Chatwood. With the series being in New York and the Angels struggling to score runs, the Yankees need to take at least 2 out of 3 from their scrappy, aggressive, annoying nemesis from the West coast.
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6 Responses to Series Preview | Yankees v. Angels
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TIQ IQ
I’ll be there tonight and I hope (pray?) that I don’t see a clunker from AJ Burnett. Coming off a weekend where the Yankee offense was largely MIA and now facing Dan Haren, tonight has the potential to be a very, very frustrating night in the Bronx for me.
Damnit AJ, don’t f*ck me over tonight!
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A player to be named to the Chi-Sox for Peavy (salary dump), Hughes to the pen, Burnett put on notice, six-man rotation is still on indefinitely, Burnett could be out of it if he sucks tonight. The Yanks will take on Peavy’s remaining contract ($X this year and $17M next, $4M buyout or $22M club option for 2013.)
Peavy starts against the Rays Friday night since he started this past Sunday (8 IP 3 H 0 ER vs. the Twins in a 4-0 win.)
Well, this is what I want to happen hahaha.
If it did happen, here’d be Peavy’s starts for the Yanks if he started every fifth game (five-man rotation) after this Friday:
8/17 @ Kansas City
8/23 vs. Oakland
8/28 @ Baltimore
9/2 vs. Toronto
9/7 vs. Baltimore
9/13 vs. Seattle
9/20 vs. Tampa Bay
9/26 vs. Tampa Bay
No starts against the postseason-contending Red Sox, Tigers, Indians, Rangers, or Angels. Three starts against the Rays who are most likely not making the postseason. He could get some good tests in his final three starts (Hernandez for Seattle, Price and/or Shields for Tampa Bay.)
This makes too much sense for Cashman the overrated idiot who thinks Burnett or Garcia is the Yanks #2.
Think about it folks:
Yanks get Peavy. That means the Yanks would have seven starters (Peavy, Sabathia, Garcia, Colon, Burnett, Nova, Hughes) thus one has to be removed from the current six-man rotation. You remove Hughes from the rotation and put Burnett on notice. If he sucks tonight, the Yanks could give him just one more chance at Kansas City 8/15 and demote him to the pen if he sucks against KC.
The ALDS rotation could be Sabathia/Garcia/Peavy/Colon, Nova, or Burnett
(switch Garcia and Peavy if you like – I’d prefer the Yanks started Garcia cuz he’s entirely different from Sabathia thus could throw off the opposition.)
The ALCS and WS rotations could be Garcia/Peavy/Sabathia/Colon,Nova, or Burnett or the Yanks could go with a three-man rotation of Sabathia/Garcia/Peavy (switch Garcia and Peavy for either or both series if you like.)
Anyone who thinks anyone would block a waiver claim on Peavy: no one would and the Chi-Sox would be in no position to ask for a top prospect from the Yanks as the Yanks would take on all of Peavy’s money (what he’s owed the rest of this year then either $21M if they buy him out or $39M if they pick up his 2013 club option.)
Seriously folks, since the Yanks are making it to the postseason barring a collapse, who is the 2011 Yanks #2 starter and what current starter after Sabathia is as good as or better than Peavy long-term? Garcia and Colon are most likely gone after this year, Hughes could be if the Yanks traded him and even if they kept him, he’s not as good as Peavy. I like Nova, but he’s not as good as Peavy either. Where is it written than C.J. Wilson is signing with the Yanks? He may want to stay in Texas as let’s face it, the Angels are his only competition who could be severely weakened if they lose Weaver after next year when he’s a free agent, and does he really want to deal with facing Boston, Tampa Bay, and Toronto 4 or 5 times a year each? Even Baltimore can be a pain sometimes. If Wilson was smart he’d remain with the Rangers and help them court Weaver, Hamels, Grienke, Cain et.al. The Rangers could reign over their division for years if they got any of those guys.
Also ask yourself this:
What’s better, Peavy for 2012 or 2012-13, or 4 or 5 years of Wilson? I’d go with Peavy. High-risk money-wise, but low-risk years-wise and high-reward. I think he is capable of 17-20 wins and a sub 4 ERA in 200+ IP for next year’s Yankees. I’d be thrilled if he was just 15-16 win, 3.75-4.25 ERA, 180-200 IP a year (#3 starter) good 2012-13.
If the Yanks got Peavy, they enhance their chances of winning this year’s World Series, and let’s say they won it. They could literally chill next year. Sabathia opts out and wants 7 or 8 years? I’d offer him 5 years at $25M per for $217M from 2009-17 ($92M for 2009-11 + $125M for 2012-16) and if he doesn’t accept it, all the best CC. If he goes, I go to Plan B which is call up Pettitte and offer him say a year and $10M base to come back (figure you have to offer him eight figures) where he makes more the more starts and innings he pitches. Peavy/Pettitte/Burnett/Nova/Hughes. Plan C could be just re-sign Garcia. Plan D would be give Banuelos the fifth starter job to start 2012. No trades and no signing Wilson who was a career reliever before he became a nice starter which is all he is.
I’m harping on Peavy no more than everyone on here harping on how great Banuelos, Betances, Montero etc. will be. My point in calling for the Yanks to get this guy is I don’t want the Yanks to give out a long-term contract to a starting pitcher who isn’t as good as who will be available after next year (Weaver, Grienke, Hamels, Cain etc.) like C.J. Wilson or trade a top prospect to get a starter. And I’ll say it here: 2012 or 2012-13 Peavy > 2016-18/19 Sabathia. I just don’t see Sabathia being an ace or #2 going into 2016.
I’ll make it real simple for you:
Jake Peavy is due $17M in 2012 and has a $22M team option for the 2013 season (or a $4M buyout). There is still approximately $3.5M remaining on his 2011 salary.
If you assume the Yankees wouldn’t pick him up for 2013 and would instead pay the $4M option that’s still $24.5M for the rest of 2011 and all of 2012.
Jake Peavy is at 1.1 bWAR. The Yankees would be absolute fools to acquire Peavy unless the White Sox chipped in at least $12M and even then Peavy doesn’t represent an upgrade over Burnett.
Spot on MJ. On top of all of this, Peavy is one pitch away from the DL and possibly never pitching again. He suffered a terrible injury, that maybe no one else has ever come back from. Because of this no one knows how well that shoulder muscle will hold up, and if it comes off again he’s probably done. So not only is he overpaid, and underperforming, he’s an extremely high injury risk. At this point in their careers I’d probably rather sign Edwin Jackson than go after Peavy.