Apparently, there was some drama involving A.J. Burnett and Joe Girardi during Saturday night’s game. I didn’t see any of it happen because of a family gathering. If you were following Twitter at all this weekend, you know that Moshe has been all over this issue. What I want to talk about is what we’re (kind of) forgetting: A.J. Burnett is just…bad right now. There’s literally no way around it.
Though I didn’t see the game, I know that 1.2 innings of 7 run ball is not good. In any way. Three walks and just one strike out to go along with a home run…that just won’t get it done. He hasn’t had a quality start since June 29th against the Brewers. Since then, he’s given up a batting line of .308/.390/.525/.916. Including hit by pitches, Burnett’s allowing 1.81 runners per inning. The only positive is that he’s struck out 47 batters in that time frame. Everything else–including a 6.93 ERA and a 5.20 FIP–has just been horrid.
With an injured Freddy Garcia, it doesn’t seem like the Yankees can do very much with Burnett. I suggested a move to the bullpen, but I don’t think that’ll happen. We know the Yankees are looking at Rich Harden for possible help, but I don’t think we’ll see anything materialize there. If the Sox didn’t like his medicals, why would the Yankees?
As Eric pointed out in the article, though, the Yankees could probably make it through the rest of the season without using a guy like Harden. In fact, we could argue that the Yankees could probably make it through the rest of the season with A.J. Burnett in the rotation. Hell, they’ve made it this far and it hasn’t sunk them. But, at this point the Yankees have an injured Garcia and a slightly-less-effective Bartolo Colon. Ivan Nova and CC Sabathia are pitching well, and Phil Hughes has improved a bit. That is likely enough to carry the Bombers into the playoffs. Once they get there, though, A.J. Burnett cannot start a game for the New York Yankees.
That’s hard for me to type because I think A.J.’s true talent level is just so far above what he is right now, but he has shown very little of it since a hot start to the year. His only plus in 2011 has been health. There is some value in that, but there have been almost no encouraging signs in terms of performance. If the Yankees think that his two-pitch combination can play up in the bullpen, then they should try, by all means. If they don’t think that can happen, there is no way he can be trusted to pitch playoff innings.
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7 Responses to Missing on A.J.
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TIQ IQ
Except for the fact he’s healthy, which I find so ironic considering this was the main concern when he was signed,the Yanks are looking at Carl Pavano, Part II. If Cashman stays and he manages to somehow find a team to take AJ this off-season, I’d consider a minor miracle. As for AJ, I lost faith in this guy a long time ago. When he starts, I just chalk an L for the Yanks. His act on Saturday was just the icing on the cake. It’s sad because he has world of talent, but the truth is if he hasn’t figured out by now, he never will.
Maybe Burnett simply can’t maintain his mechanics for more than an inning or two. Whenever I watch his starts (before I start cursing) he seems to come out with serious gas, good control, and the nasty hook. He then starts pulling his arm across his body like a pitcher that’s getting tired tends to do. Maybe age and mind-set have conspired to keep him from keeping his mechanics in control. I really believe that Cashman needs to salvage what he can by moving Burnett to the bullpen. Who knows, maybe he becomes a lethal arm out ‘pen…….
Matt, the only thing I would take issue with in your piece is your characterization of Phil Hughes “as having improved a bit”. In my humble opinion it’s more than a bit.
One thing about A.J. Burnett is that he has good Septembers. For his career, it’s his best month tOPS+-wise, as well as for K/9, SO/BB, OPS, SLG, and BA (tied). It was his best month in 2008 and 2009, though middle of that pack in his horrible 2010.
I doubt that’s very predictive, but it is interesting.
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Back on August 6th, I posted on my blog (http://theviewfromthemiddleoftheroad.blogspot.com/2011/08/bit-of-diversion.html) an analysis on why AJ shouldn’t be in the starting rotation. This analysis was from the perspective of the discipline of financial decision making. The analysis holds even more today.
How many more times will the Yankees have to dig themselves out of a hole after the 1st, 2nd or 3rd inning because Girardi (or Cashman) can’t stand “wasting” AJ’s big salary? And, will that cost the Yankees the divisional title and home field advantage?
Burnett and $9.75M ($1.5M in 2012 + $8.25M in 2013) to Atlanta for Derek Lowe in the offseason.
The Yanks pay the same for Lowe as they would if they kept Burnett for 2012 (Lowe’s $15M salary + $1.5M) or the Braves pay the same for Burnett as they would if they kept Lowe for 2012 (Burnett’s $16.5M salary – 1.5M the Yanks thrown in.)
The Braves pay only $8.25M for Burnett in 2013, a $6.75M savings and half of Burnett’s 2013 salary.
If Lowe sucks, the Yanks could simply cut him. I’d consider the $9.75M thrown in with Burnett a buyout on Burnett’s remaining $33M and Lowe an upgrade from Burnett cuz he’s not Burnett.