There were a few interesting articles today that I wanted to highlight:
1) Here Comes Darvish
From Joel Sherman:
One player the Yankees have scouted heavily is Yu Darvish. And there is strong belief around the game that the top starter in Japan will, indeed, be posted this offseason and come to the States.
“He is coming, period,” one personnel man said.
The Yankees have had sour experience with high-profile Japanese pitchers Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa, whose five-year contract finally expires this year. And the last can’t-miss Japanese pitcher to come to the majors, Daisuke Matsuzaka, was hardly a bonanza for the Red Sox.
So you wonder if there will be greater financial caution with Darvish this winter or will the hunger for pitching motivate teams to bid. I will say this, I have not sensed that the Igawa experience will take the Yankees, for example, out of the Japanese market place.
I am glad that a poor experience with Igawa has not altered the Yankees’ view of Darvish. Each player needs to be scouted independently, and if the Yankees think Darvish is a quality prospect, Igawa’s failure should not impact their decision-making calculus. Although cost is obviously an important factor, I am in favor of pursuing Darvish. MLB teams are locking up their star pitchers before they reach free agency, so obtaining an incredibly talented arm for nothing but cash is a move that a team with the financial might of the Yankees should strongly consider.
2) The Brian Cashman Honesty Tour Continues
Marc Carig has the money quotes:
“I’ve got CC Sabathia cussing in his glove, I’ve got Paul O’Neill, who for a huge run here, was kicking water coolers. It’s not an issue. It’s just silliness. I’ve got other guys on our team doing the same stuff,” Cashman said. “I like seeing passion. I don’t want a guy walking off the mound singing ‘Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah’ and having a skip to his step after a performance like that.”
Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah. That’s just priceless. This version of Brian Cashman is much more fun than the guy who used to no comment everything and told us that Bubba Crosby would be the Opening Day center fielder. Cashman also addressed Burnett’s performance, admitting that Burnett is not the team’s #2 starter, and that his salary will not save his spot in the rotation. Of course, those comments are not going to get any major airplay, because they do not fit with the “Yankees coddle AJ Burnett storyline.”
3) Looking at Gardner’s and Martin’s Defense
Daniel Barbarisi of the WSJ looked at Brett Gardner’s fantastic defense, and made an interesting point about the way the Yankees utilize him:
Gardner teams with Granderson and Nick Swisher to create one of the best defensive outfields in baseball. Granderson is an established, rangy center fielder who has great in-line speed once he gets moving, and Swisher is an underrated and improving right fielder—his UZR is 10.7, fifth-best in baseball. And they move around significantly, adjusting for where they expect the hitter will place the ball.
“Our whole outfield, we take a lot of pride of being in good position before the ball’s hit,” Gardner said. “We move around and communicate a lot. I think we do a really good job of that, which allows us to get to some balls that other people might not get to.”
The way Gardner covers ground allows the Yankees to use different defensive alignments, shifting Granderson more toward right field in some situations because they assume Gardner can cover all of left-center.
As Stephen Rhoads noted at RAB this morning, the bolded portion might explain why Granderson’s UZR has suffered this season despite the fact that he passes the eye-test as a solid center fielder. Click through to both Daniel’s and Stephen’s work, as both make interesting points about the Yankees’ outfield defense.
Jeff Bradley looked at another aspect of the Yankees’ defense:
And like the move to get Brosius, the signing of Martin is paying huge dividends. Listen to an American League advance scout describe the ways Martin has made his team better.
“Huge impact on the pitching staff,” said the scout, who requested anonymity because he’s not authorized to speak about another organization’s player. “He makes all the starters use all their stuff. He has those guys believing they can throw any pitch in any count. He’s got a great setup behind the plate, so the umpires get a good view. He blocks balls in the dirt and encourages, no, demands guys throw their off-speed stuff down so hitters chase.”
Martin has been fantastic defensively this season, and that has made his struggles offensively easier to swallow. I would definitely bring him back next season to at least compete for the starting catcher’s spot.
4) Cito Culver Scouting Report
Al Skorupa of Bullpen Banter recently watched Cito Culver play, and came through with a fantastic scouting report. He concluded:
From this look, I’m envisioning a major league shortstop with some good ability to put the ball in play and work the count. I’m not really confident in the bat developing and these just aren’t impact level tools, but a bottom of the order everyday shortstop would be an outcome most teams would be delighted with. It will be interesting to see how Culver develops physically from here and if he can make the necessary adjustments.
There is a ton of video and detailed swing and defense breakdowns in the post, and I highly encourage that you check it out.
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19 Responses to Links: Darvish, Cashman On Burnett, Gardner’s and Martin’s Defense, Cito Culver
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TIQ IQ
Brosius’ presence caused them to trade Lowell. I hope they don’t allow Martin’s presence to motivate them to make the same mistake with Montero.
Brosius posted .300 BA with 19 HR and 98 RBI primarily from the #9 slot in 1998. There was no room for Lowell.
No more pitchers from Japan. The posting fee is too high and a multi-year contract would be required. Darvish could be another Igawa.
When it comes to Darvish he is no more than a prospect so to pay him and his club 80+ million dollars to be on a team just seems like to big of risk. Also concerns such as his mileage on his arm, the quality of hitters in Japan, and how the once a week to a five day rotation all scare me off. If this proposition was between 20-40 million it would be be worth a hard look, but it will cost nearly twice the much if not more so let some other team pay free market price on a relatively unknown quantity.
I want the Yankees to go hard after Darvish. Granted some Japanese players haven’t been able to successfully make the transition; however, Darvish has some astounding numbers. He’s only 25 and still has his prime ahead of him. There is worry about his arm and all the IP he’s logged already but I think it’s worth the risk. I hope the Yankees thoroughly scout him and when it comes down to it I trust Cashman to make the right decision but it certainly would be nice to have a pitcher of CC’s caliber as the number 2 and we aren’t even certain the CC will return next year (how come there haven’t been many articles on that front, is it pretty much just assumed the Yankees lock up Sabathia for another 5-7 years?)
No thanks because of Irabu and Igawa, although in fairness to Irabu he did have one great stretch one year.
So because two players failed, the Yankees should completely ignore every pitcher coming out of Japan?
I’m not saying they should break the bank for him, or even that they should necessarily be interested, but the “but…Irabu and Igawa” argument is exceptionally weak.
In Igawa last two years in the Japanese league he has a 3.73 and 3.86 ERA. Darvish has an ERA of under two (it is seriously difficult to find sabermetrics or even advanced stats on players over there!). Igawa’s perofmance had declined the last few years he was there, Darvish has gotten better.
I say take a risk on him, with numbers like those he the potential to be lights out in MLB. Guess it’s a medium risk- very high reward situation.
It’s bigoted to say “no Japanese players” just because a few notable other have failed. Many other less touted pitchers have done just fine, and some of the positional players like Matsui and Ichiro are all stars and possibly hall of famers.
But I will say that due to the vast difference in level of competition, I don’t like the idea of dishing out a mega contract to someone who’s so speculative. Steven Strasberg was as much of a no-brainer as it gets talent wise, got a massive deal out of college, and it was still below 20 mil. I can live with that number, but these posting fees+player contracts have combined to go far past it. I understand the two situations are vastly different, but committing 100 mil (the way the Sox did with Dice-K) to pitcher who’s never thrown a single pitch in MLB just strikes me as stupid. Pitching prospects, even top prospects have a high failure rate attached to them for a variety of reasons. I’d rather sign 10 kids out of the Dominican, Venezuela and Korea for the same price in the hopes that 2-3 pan out. Putting all your eggs in the Darvish basket is just begging to be disappointed, and I think a poor allocation of resources.
Dice-K really never got used to the difference in power between Japanese and American baseball. Mistakes that would be doubles in Japan are 3 run dingers here. Then he compensates by trying to be too fine, then he starts nibbling and pretty soon he’s not the same pitcher. Its a familiar tale that’s been told of many young pitchers who’ve experienced success elsewhere, be it in a US college or Japan.
If the bidding gets as high as it did for Dice-K, or anywhere near there, I pass. I just don’t like putting that much resources into someone who I consider to be no better than another very good prospect. I have more confidence in the guys who go through the system, where at least I get a read on where they are in terms of their development.
Who can pay for CC’s wage except Yankees??
A-Rod hurt his thumb, so he’s going on the d.l. again. If he’s put on the 15-day d.l. tomorrow, he misses this series through next homestand and would return 9/9 in Anaheim if he came off the d.l. 9/8 (off-day.)
The Yankees need to get rid of this guy somehow. They should’ve let him walk or played hardball with him (five years so next year would’ve been his walk year) after he opted out.
The Yanks should offer him and cash I’d consider a buyout to Seattle. Let him break the homerun record with the team he started with. Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez would be long gone by record-breaking time.
Or the Yanks should just tell A-Rod they don’t want him anymore and work on a buyout. I couldn’t see him wanting to stay where he isn’t wanted.
“The Yankees need to get rid of this guy somehow.”
He has six years and $143M left on his contract. It’s not happening.
“They should’ve let him walk or played hardball with him after he opted out.”
This was nearly four years ago already. Get over it. There’s no point talking about it anymore.
“The Yanks should offer him and cash I’d consider a buyout to Seattle. Let him break the homerun record with the team he started with. Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez would be long gone by record-breaking time.”
So you suggest the Yankees offer a still-productive player and over $100M in cash to Seattle and get what back in return, exactly? Why do you imagine that Seattle would want to make such a trade?
“Zip a dee doo dah” !!
Thank you for that. You just made my day.
Yu Darvish? Just say no. There’s just no reliable way to know if his stuff and makeup will translate to MLB and for the kind of money it will take to get him the risk and opportunity cost is just too high.
On Martin – I’m just not sold on him as anything but a bridge to Montero or Romine. Sure, he should be retained for another year to help one or both of those guys make the transition to the big leagues but he should not block their progress. Martin is not going to get any better at this point in his career – he’s already everything he is going to be. The Yankees need to find out if Montero and Romine can cut it at the major-league level or if they’re just trade bait and cannot let what Martin gives then stand in the way of that process.
“He makes all the starters use all their stuff. He has those guys believing they can throw any pitch in any count. He’s got a great setup behind the plate, so the umpires get a good view. He blocks balls in the dirt and encourages, no, demands guys throw their off-speed stuff down so hitters chase.”
I have to note that these are all reasons why you don’t want to just hand Montero the starting Catcher’s job, just because (we think) he can hit. His 6’4″ size will be an issue on close balls and strikes. His inability to control the running game can cause a pitcher who’s struggling with his control to give up more runs than he would with Martin behind the dish. But of course, those runs get charged to the pitcher. Once teams figure out that he can’t throw runners out they will run all over him. The impact of catcher defense is difficult to quantify. How many more baserunning attempts would there be if a poor defender was behind the plate? We don’t know for sure, its one of those things you see but falls between the numbers. But even using rough estimates, the differential between his bat and Martin’s would need to be pretty huge if you subtract the defense from the equation. If pitchers are giving up an extra half a run per game and he outproduces Martin by .100 points of OPS, that’s a very bad trade off.
On a personal level, I hate sloppy baseball with bad defense. Those games are just ugly to watch. The Yanks have plenty of hitting as is, and catcher is too interconnected with the pitching staff to dismiss the impact a good defensive catcher can have, as some do. I’m very happy with Martin, all indications are the Yanks are happy with him as well.
“He makes all the starters use all their stuff.”
And yet Larry’s posts demonstrate that Bartolo Colon has now become a one-pitch pitcher. Something about the conventional wisdom that Martin gets all of his pitchers to use their entire repertoire doesn’t jibe with the metamorphosis of Colon as the season is marching on.
Re: Culver
If the Yankees do end up with an everyday SS that bats 9th and turns out to be a solid glove then the draft pick will justify itself because there’s a lot of value in graduating draft picks and getting them into the regular lineup.
Having said that, I’d be lying if I thought the Yankee fan base would be happy watching a 1st round pick turn into a guy that can’t hit a lick. Most fans would likely be ready to run him out of town and, sadly, the Yankee track record indicates that they aren’t consistently patient with young players. A SS that can’t hit might be the norm around baseball but it would probably make Culver a whipping boy.
Upon further review, there seem to be some issues with the scouting report.
I am the first to admit that I am not a scout so, upon first reading, the Culver write-up seemed comprehensive and well done. However I am friends with an individual in the scouting department of an MLB team (Moshe, I can tell you privately on Twitter or via email; I’d rather not do so in a public forum) and he had some critiques of the article:
1) The video footage of Culver’s throwing was unfairly portrayed. While Culver’s throwing may be from a low arm slot, the video only showed Culver fielding in between innings and doing so in a lackadasical, joking manner.
2) Footspeed down the line has very little to do with the quick feet required of a defensive position like SS.
3) Along the same vein, it is unfair to show Culver’s time down the line at 4.3 seconds without mentioning that he pulled up and slowed down about 3/4 or 4/5 of the way to the bag. Not only should this fact have been mentioned (or a better timing should’ve been taken during the game) but to then extrapolate slow defensive reaction time based on a flawed timing down the line is more than unfair.
4) There was confusion over the term “carry” in Culver’s throwing. A throw made from a low arm slot wouldn’t have carry since, naturally, a low arm slot throw would have more of a parabolic shape to it. “Carry” is typically what occurs on a snap throw made from behind the ear (overhand throw).
None of these critiques are intended to say that the author’s perspective — or, rather, his conclusions — are entirely incorrect. Instead, the critiques were meant to point out that the author projects a sense of authority on scouting but makes some mistakes common of those folks that are trying to get into the field. Given the way something written on the internet can seem factual or accurate “just because”, we probably should put a little less stock in this write-up.
FYI – this friend of mine would downgrade Culver’s present scouting grades but does see some talent there (simply based on the video/GIFs of the righty swing. Like Keith Law’s write-up in June, neither party particularly likes Culver’s lefty swing).
This is great insight, thanks MJ. I’ll try and raise them with Al, who I have a bit to do with on twitter.
Glad the comment was well-received. I actually think my buddy also talks to Al on Twitter because he was familiar with Al’s site when I pointed him to it for his thoughts.
Most importantly, I was heartened to hear that my friend saw talent in Culver (despite not liking his lefty swing too much).