One day, that walk to the dugout will be his last
I weighed in yesterday on the recent struggles of the greatest Closer of all time, which I think have been greatly overblown. I’ve read various articles arguing that the cutter isn’t as sharp, but Fangraphs begs to differ. What those charts show me is that he’s made some bad mistakes on location, which we all knew already. In my view the annual decline in numbers against Lefties is more likely due to adjustments made by opposing hitters, since everyone knows what’s coming. Avoiding mistakes and mixing in a few more 4 seamers may be all Mo needs to keep opposing hitters off balance.
(Side note-For a terrific read on what’s its like being in the batter’s box facing Mo, check out Doug Glanville’s latest piece on ESPN.)
With all of that being said, the day will come when Mariano will no longer be effective. Its difficult for Yankee fans to imagine, because he’s been such a fixture for the past 16 seasons. As good as he’s been in the post season, what truly separates Mariano from other Closers has been his longevity. Many have been as dominant for a while, but no one else has had his longevity. Most Closers, even the great ones, have a much shorter run at the top of their game. Dennis Eckersley’s peak was from 1988-1992 (though he was a starter until age 32). Bruce Sutter’s peak was from 1977-1984, with an off year in 1983 mixed in. The best years for Goose Gossage were between 1977-1985. Mariano been one of the best relievers in baseball since 1996, a run that spans three decades. He hasn’t had one of those down years like Sutter, or lost his stuff in his late 30′s like Goose and Eck did. He’s been automatic, year in and year out except for the occasional bad week here and there. He’s lulled us to sleep with how good he’s been, but the day will come when he loses it. It may happen slowly, it may seemingly happen overnight. When it does, who will take his place?
The easy answer is no one will ever take Mo’s place, but someone’s going to get the ball handed to him for the 9th inning. On the current 40 man roster we have a bevy of candidates, I’ll go through each of them individually:
Rafael Soriano-The obvious successor. He has experience closing, is getting acclimated to pitching in the Bronx and is enjoying success. The downside is he’s been on the DL a lot, so you’ll need a reliable setup man behind him.
David Robertson-Has all the tools to be a wonderful setup man, but could be exposed as a closer. Walks too many batters (career 4.8/9) and has a tendency to make his own mess at times. Also has Houdini qualities, with his off the charts strikeout rates (2011-13.7 SO/9) and solid groundball rates for someone who misses as many bats as he does. He’s be a high wire act, get out the Maalox.
Joba Chamberlain-Coming off TJS he’s not even in the discussion until the middle of next year, but we all saw what Joba is capable of back in 07. Has a long way to go and a lot to prove before he’s closing for a contender. If he comes back and is throwing in the high 90s, he’ll be in the mix.
Phil Hughes-A dark horse candidate who’s much more valuable as a starter, but after his stellar bullpen work in 2009 he has to be in the discussion. I have no doubt he could handle it, but would be a waste of his talent unless there was an excess in the rotation and a dire need.
Dellin Betances-Many scouts and prospects analysts have long felt his best role in the big leagues is in the bullpen due to his injury history and mechanical issues. His plus size and plus fastball make him very tough to hit when he’s on, but his tendency to lose his mechanics mean the wheels can come off in a hurry. Better as a setup man than Closer.
I want to ask our readers, who do you envision as the next Yankee closer?
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13 Responses to Imagining life after Mariano
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Mo’s worst year by number of saves blown was 1997 his first year as the closer with 9 blown saves (43 for 52.) His career WHIP is 1.003 as he has put on 1199 men in 1195 IP. He’ll have a WHIP of exactly 1 if he doesn’t put a man on base in his next 4 IP.
The successor is fine if he blows say 5 saves tops. I think it’s possible to have a closer like that.
Soriano will be fine, as long as he stays healthy. The trouble is he hasn’t, and as I showed in this piece the guys behind him are for the most part better as setup men then Closers. Maybe Joba will seize the opportunity, but that’s a long way off. Maybe Dellin can keep his delivery together for a few innings, but loses it as he tires. I don’t know, but after Soriano there’s a lot of question marks.
Phil Hughes has no chance to be the closer because he’s going to want to be a starter; if the Yankees ever move him back to the pen, he’ll leave as a FA to start somewhere.
He’s in his first year of arbitration, so the Yanks control him for 2 more years after this. He can’t become a FA unless the Yanks non-tender him, which obviously won’t happen if they’re eying him as their Closer.
The problem with making Hughes the closer is you’ll get only one year of closing out of him (2013) since he’s under control for only two more years and Mo is the closer next year. ‘Say Hughes is a starter next year (likely) and has a 2010 Freddy Garcia-type year, and Mo retires after next year. If the Yanks make Hughes the closer for 2013, he may see himself as a starter and demand a trade before or during 2013. Do you want a distraction like that? And look at it from his side: he’s a starter 2010-12, now he’s made a closer in his walk year? If he sucks as a closer it diminishes his value as a free agent market. Who’s to say he could be an effective starter again? Who’s signing him to a multi-year contract to be a starter after he closed for a year? Also do you really want a guy with very little closing experience where he wasn’t good at it (3 saves in 6 chances all in 2009) as the successor to Mo?
You could say who cares what Hughes wants, but I wouldn’t yo-yo the guy like the Yanks have done with Joba Chamberlain. The Yanks have done and can do that to Chamberlain cuz they have him under control for longer than Hughes with the less service time Chamberlain has, they can’t do it for long with Hughes.
If not one of those guys, how about Noesi?
I am a firm believer that psychologically there is something about the last 3 outs, even though there shouldn’t be… I like D-Rob (escape artist) and Joba as co-setup men. Leaving the closer as Soriano or maybe Noesi, Hughes, free agent random in the future.
One thing is for certain, there is no other Mariano. After Mo, let Soriano get crushed by the fans for a year (will happen to whoever blows a single save after Mo) then hand the role to someone else in 2014.
Yes, you don’t want to be the man that follows The Man. Nothing you do will ever be good enough.
Really? What if Mo retires after next year and the Yanks win the 2013 World Series where the new closer collected two saves a postseason round with no blown saves after a 40 saves in 47 chances season? That’s a nice start as Mo’s successor and entirely possible. Chalk up the 7 blown saves in the regular season to being not quite as good as Mo but close to it. One could argue while you probably won’t ever have the body of work Mo has done for the Yanks, you will have played your part in the Yankees winning ways in your own way. You know this before you even get the ball in your first save.
Nine other closers have won a World Series besides Mo the last decade, it’d still be nine if the Yanks won this year’s World Series, ten if the Yanks don’t. I bet no one ever thought the Yanks could fill Don Mattingly’s shoes with another farm system player and look who has done that and way more in Jeter. I think we all knew it was a matter of time that the Yanks would be a World Series championship team again, but did any of us really, truly think a skinny kid with no power who struggled at times with his defense at shortstop in the minors and basically got the SS job from veteran Tony Fernandez getting hurt would produce a 3,000+ hits and counting with a full hand of World Series rings in 7 attempts career? No. At least I didn’t. It took me until Jeter winning the 2000 World Series MVP (which you could seriously argue could’ve been a Jeter-Paul O’Neill co-WSMVP for the great WS O’Neill had) for me to say he filled Mattingly’s shoes.
If the next one gets a ring right away, he’ll be OK. But no one wants to fill Mo’s shoes, it’s impossible to measure up. Mo’s the best Closer of all time. To be better, or even just as good…let’s just say I’ll bet against it.
Mickey Mantle, repeat MICKEY MANTLE was constantly criticized and even booed in his first 5 seasons with the team for not being Joe DiMaggio. Tino had a rough go in his first season replacing Mattingly. Its very hard to replace a legend, Mo will be even harder.
Mo is irreplacable :)
I wonder if Mo would be willing to talk to the new closer over the phone once a week for the first year. I’m pretty sure he’ll watch most if not all Yankee games while kicking it back home and he seems like the kind of guy who would be down to give the new guy advice, what he sees, etc. Or maybe not haha.
Something tells me Mo will be back for one final year as I can’t see him retiring if he has a typical Mo season next year unless he is really set to retire.
Prediction:
If Mo announces he wants to pitch one more year after 2012 is over, Soriano will stay a Yankee because he’d make a ton being a setup man in 2013 and could be a closer for whoever 2014 on. The only way he’d opt out is if there’s a market for closers for 2013.
If Mo announces he wants to pitch two more years after 2012 is over, Soriano will opt out because I can’t see him wanting to wait until 2015 to be a closer, unless he doesn’t mind being an overpaid setup man 2012-13 and who wouldn’t? haha.
If Mo announces he will retire before, during, or after 2012, Soriano will opt out after 2012 and why not? The Yanks don’t have Mo / a closer anymore and Soriano has the most experience and success among the remaining Yankee relievers moreover why would he want to basically sing for his supper by staying with the Yanks in 2013? If he blows in 2013, he doesn’t get a big payday after it. Or what if he gets hurt?
Soriano could, if he sticks around, and learns some english to improve his PR: stoneface oblique responses thru the interpreter just won’t satisfy, on blew the save occasions.
One man not on the list is a could-be: AJ Burnett, after more water may pass under the bridge, could be turned, Eckersley-style, into a terrific two pitch closer.
David Robertson – there’s the interesting case: the true fireman. If he can continue the Houdini act, don’t ever stop that! Nothing more rare.