Let big Bart and Freddy...
...take turns as the #5
After strong showings by Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova facing the White Sox, the Yanks were faced with a dilemma. They’d prefer not to go with a 6 man rotation for a variety of reasons, but both of the young hurlers performed so well, in a pressure situation, that they not only saved their spots in the rotation but threw their caps in the ring as competitors for the elusive #2 starter’s role on the team. The easiest decision for Girardi would have come had one of them been bombed. Hughes would have been sent to the bullpen to reprise his 2009 role, or Ivan Nova would have been sent to AAA since he has options remaining. But neither of those scenarios happened. One could argue ‘it was against the White Sox’ but that didn’t seem to help AJ Burnett.
So now the Yanks are faced with a good problem, but that doesn’t make it any easier to unravel. The Yanks don’t want a 6 man rotation, but they’re also desperate for a #2 type starter for October. Both Hughes and Nova displayed that ability last week, so jettisoning either from the starting rotation could be a big mistake. If Hughes goes to the bullpen, you’ll lose him as an option for the rest of the year and more importantly the playoffs, since in short order his arm won’t be stretched out enough to give you length. If you send Nova to the minors again, for a 2nd time where his performance didn’t dictate it, you risk disillusioning the young man thinking that no matter what he does he will always be the odd man out on this team. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t exactly be wrong about that. It’s not as if he has something he needs to work on, the slider he displyed in Chicago is the final piece of the puzzle for Nova, and it raises his ceiling from a back of the rotation ground ball pitcher to someone who can generate grounders AND miss bats. That’s huge. As a profile, that’s what some of the best pitchers in the game do consistently, so now Ivan just needs to show he can do it on a regular basis and keep doing what he’s doing. For him to prove he can do that, it needs to happen on the MLB level. Both young pitchers need to stay in the rotation now to see if they can fill that #2 role in October.
Nobody wants to take starts away from CC Sabathia, or even upset his routine all that much. He’s one of the 3 best pitchers (along with Verlander and Weaver) in the American League. The 8 game bulge the Yanks currently enjoy for the playoffs would allow for it, but you want him to stay sharp and stay on the roll he’s currently on. Too much rest could take him out of that rhythm, and like most pitchers CC often talks about being a pitcher who likes to establish a routine and stay with it.
Burnett’s problem is, was, and always has been fastball command. Extra rest may give him a little boost on his velocity, but can only hurt his command. If you think he’s been bad as your #2 starter, check out his Days of Rest splits for his career. On 5 days rest the walks rise and the strikeouts decline, as expected. He’s not going to the bullpen, either. One of the biggest issues of his disappointing career where his results have never matched up with his stuff has been his ability to keep his emotions in check. By his own admission, he gets down on himself lets a few bad pitches snowball into a 6 run inning. Sending someone with a fragile psyche who’s been a starter his entire career to the bullpen is to risk losing him as a productive member of the team completely. He’s signed for 2 more years to a contract nobody will take. You have to run him out there, and if that’s tough to swallow I would suggest viewing him more as a #5 than a #2. As a career .500 pitcher, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you expect more.
Onto the proposal. Everyone worries that the surgically repaired shoulders of Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon simply won’t hold up all year. Even if they were never hurt, there would concern that ages of Garcia (34) and Colon (38) would lead them to run out of gas down the stretch. Considering both factors, I think its too much to ask for 30+ effective starts out of either of them. Both should benefit from added rest, particularly at this point of the season. I would alternate to these two as #5 starters while keeping everyone else on their regular turns. Due to rain outs, here are 50 games left in the next 53 days of the season, including an August 27th doubleheader facing the Orioles. Given how jam packed the schedule is, that means that Garcia and Colon would split up 11 starts over the final two months of the year, and both would be lined up perfectly to take both ends of the August doubleheader. If Garcia takes 6 of those and Colon takes 5, that would put Garcia at a manageable 25 starts for the year and roughly 150 IP. Colon would log 22 starts and 140-150 IP for the season. Given their age and injury history, that sounds like a reasonable number for both men. When faced with a close call, I’d lean toward giving Garcia one of those 11 starts, since he’s a feel pitcher who needs to stay as sharp as possible. As power pitcher who’s always had good fastball command, Colon should only benefit from added days off at this point of the year. Of course, if anyone gets injured or proves ineffective, then you go back to the traditional 5 man and make your move then. But as a temporary or permanent measure, I think this proposal will work for all parties involved, including the two aging starters. There’s a thought in baseball that aging pitchers only have so many bullets in their arm, let them save those bullets for October.
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11 Responses to A modest proposal for a 6 man rotation
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I think this is an excellent idea for a 6 person (no sexiest me) rotation! I love the fact that at the start of the season we were all wondering where the starting pitching depth would come from to enable the Yanks to compete and now we’re wondering how to fit 6 starters into a rotation effectively. It would be great if the non-CC starters keep this question going for the remainder of the season.
I completely understand and agree with your assessment of AJ. Now the question that could soon surface is: If AJ continues pitching like he has, will he be left off the post-season roster? How would that affect his psyche?
Post season is a pure meritocracy, and AJ will understand that. You go with your 3 or 4 best pitchers, and shouldn’t need to explain why to anyone.
Nice work, good plan, Steve. Upon consultation with the pitchers.
That picture of Bartolo is so slimming.
It’s the pinstripes.
I have to admit I agree with this article. I would do exactly that and split Colon and Garcia starts and leave Hughes and Nova on regular schedule. It’s actually the first time I heard anyone bring this idea up.
I also have to add I honestly have not been able to agree with anything this guy Steve S has posted in the past. He has been extremely critical of Cashman and looks for the negative to generate talk but this article is excellent and it’s a great idea.
On paper it’s a great idea. If the human beings involved can deal with it (emotionally and/ or physically) I am all for this plan
I think you’re on the right track but if I were the Yankees I would try something different … 6 men in a 5 man rotation:
Sabathia
Garcia for ~80 pitches/Colon for ~ 80 pitches
AJ
Hughes
Nova
I think the day that Garcia/Colon pitches will be a day of rest for the BP as each has shown they can throw 70 pitches and be reasonably effective. This plan puts less stress on Garcia and Colon, gives Hughes and Garcia chances to get stronger and keeps Sabathia and AJ on a 5 day rotation.
By the end of August the Yankees should be able to know which of their 6 starters can be productive for them down the stretch. I do not think this plan means they need an additional BP arm as both Colon and Garcia have each needed relief. The problem is not with using Garcia and Colon on the same day. The problem is with relying on Hughes and Nova but the Yankees need to get them ready for the post season and this plan seems to move in that direction while keeping Colon and Garcia as fresh as possible.
Since Garcia and Colon usually throw 6 or 7 innings I do not think this plan stresses the pen. And I also think the combination of Garcia (slow and crafty) pitching first and Colon (hard thrower) pitching in the later innings adds up to a very strong number 2 pitcher. In a short series like the playoffs and series I would not hesitate to throw Freddy Colon in the second game and follow up with AJ in the third game. In a games like this I might even throw Phil Nova as my fourth pitcher.
I do have a lot of confidence in the BP which helps this plan work (in my opinion).
Mike1kew? No I disagree based on fact if AJ hughes or Nova implodes you need another arm in pen so as not to ruin bullpen.
Thanks for your comment.
If either Hughes or Nova implodes the yankees would have 5 starters and the implodee either goes to the BP or SWB and the Yankees bring up any of two or three good choices. AJ has imploded and the Yankees seem locked into keeping him in the rotation.
Recent comment from sports writer and analyst Jack Curry concerning Yankee pitcher A.J. Burnett:
“It was what happened after the homer that damaged them and maybe even infuriated them. Burnett couldn’t prevent the inning from becoming a debacle. As seamless as Burnett was through five, he was as messy in the sixth.”
Curry went on to say (and I agree) that A.J. is the person who should be either held back on start or somehow removed (bullpen ?) from the starting rotation when the Yankees return to a 5-man rotation (beginning Monday 8/15).
That said, here is what the Yankees SHOULD do, and what I believe they likely WILL do:
A. IF Phil Hughes has a poor outing on Saturday (8/13) against Tampa Bay – it is likely that Phil will be returned to the bullpen (where he was successful at one time).
B. IF Hughes has his second good start in a row (first was against the White Sox) against Tampa Bay – he SHOULD be the #5 guy (Sabbathia, Colon, Nova, Garcia, Hughes) and A.J. should either be skipped for 1-2 starts or do some bullpen work. Based on HOW the Yankees organization thinks – I just don’t see this rational decision occurring.
Keep in mind that IF either Hughes or Burnett were put in the bullpen temporarily – it would not be a “choice” spot. Logically, it could only be the long-man role. Right now, you have Soriano pitching very well since coming off the DL (I KNOW this guy is itching to again be what he is – a CLOSER – but that’s another story…) and the 8th inning role is D. Robertson – who has basically worn a nice red “S” on his jersey all year for the Yanks…