No, there’s been nothing to my knowledge that suggest this is a possibility, but I think it’s in the back of our minds. During the top of the 7th in last night’s game, friend of the blog Lucas Apostoleris had a suggestion:
You know what? I’m done with A.J. Burnett. Put him in the bullpen.
His next tweet:
I don’t want to hear the “he’s too unpredictable for the bullpen” argument. It’s not so random; he just loses steam throughout the game.
That, of course, sent me to A.J’s splits page to see if there was any truth to what Lucas said. And, not shockingly, there was something to it.
In innings 1-3, 69.0 innings going into last night, Burnett held batters to a .206/.292/.366/.658 line. His ERA in the opening innings has been 3.00 with a 4.08 FIP.
In innings 4-6, 62.0 innings going into last night, Burnett allowed a line of .276/.354/.488/.842. His ERA? 5.81. FIP? 5.07.
Innings 7-9, only 11.2 going into last night, saw Burnett surrendering a .234/.339/.468 line. The OBP and SLG aren’t pretty, but these innings are so few that they’re not horribly important. For the record, his ERA in this time has been 6.94 and his FIP has been 6.68.
The numbers seem to point to putting A.J. Burnett into the bullpen. In 2011, he’s simply gotten less effective as the games have gone on and we saw that last night. But, we’ve got to remember that removing Burnett from the rotation isn’t an instant fix for him or the rotation. As we like to say, pitchers are creatures of habit and Burnett hasn’t thrown out of the bullpen since 2004. And while it’s likely that his already electric stuff could play up in a relief role, his control problems could be a hindrance.
We should also take note that there is no clear cut upgrade to Burnett to take his starting spot. Phil Hughes looked awesome last time out against Chicago, but that’s basically the only good thing we’ve seen out of Hughes this year. Are any of the minor league options going to be anything all that great? Probably not. The only thing I could see is if the Yankees shift Burnett to the bullpen, let Hughes take his spot, option Hector Noesi to the minors and stretch him out to start in case Hughes reverts back to his early season form.
I wouldn’t count on this happening, but it might make some sense. One thing is for sure, though, if Burnett does continue to start and keeps up the act he’s put on for 2011, he won’t be in the playoff rotation.
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11 Responses to A.J. to the ‘pen?
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TIQ IQ
Matt: What if we don’t break Burnett’s outings into thirds but into (roughly) halves? He was cruising through five last night and I’d be curious in isolating which of the middle innigs it is where the hiccups occur. Is it the fourth or perhaps the fifth (or sixth, as it was last night).
How do the numbers shake out if you look at innings 1-4 and 5-8 in a group?
As far as the bullpen idea, you pretty much nailed it. The Yankees don’t have a better option to take Burnett’s place in the rotation right now. Hughes’s tremendous start vs. Chicago notwithstanding, he’s still been the inferior pitcher all year. Burnett’s first five innings last night were probably better than anything Hughes has done in 2011 other than his last start vs. the White Sox. Doesn’t seem to suggest that Hughes deserves a rotation spot right now.
Also, regarding Burnett’s control issues as a relief option: in shorter stints, coming in to start an inning instead of coming in with men on base, those issues could be mitigated somewhat. We’ve seen other relievers with BB/9 issues nevertheless maintain effectiveness as long as they’re deployed in the proper game situation (no baserunners).
Jesus, typos galore…
I don’t think AJ deserves to be pulled from the rotation, mediocre as he is and will continue to be. Not only hasn’t he been bad enough, but Phil Hughes has as much or more to prove. He’s generally been mediocre since returning (and was awful in a big spot yet again at Fenway) and one good start is not nearly enough for me to think he’s going to keep improving. AJ surely has his warts, but Phil has plenty of his own – I just don’t think he’s very good at all. Going into this season, I didn’t think he’d be very good – so I have no reason to think he’d be better than AJ. At most, perhaps he’d be just as good- which is to say mediocre. I think Phil should be AAA starting as I don’t like this 6 man rotation
I agree that Burnett belongs in the rotation over Hughes.
I don’t agree that Hughes belongs in AAA. He’s mastered the minor leagues; we already know this and there’s no sense wasting the bullets in his arm down on the farm. For right now he should be used in low-leverage situations in the bullpen until he earns the right to get increased responsibility in the ‘pen.
Given how strong the bullpen has been all season, that may mean that Hughes may not sniff another big inning again for the rest of the year which, frankly, doesn’t really help Hughes much either. As a result, the Yanks have to continue to try and find ways to get Hughes in games and that means he’ll be in the rotation as the 6th man until the team can no longer carry six starters. Decisions often have a way of making themselves. We’ll soon find out what role Hughes will occupy for the rest of the year. No sense rushing things.
This could be a great idea: Dennis Eckersley was a similarly frustrating case until the A’s turned him into a reliever.
There is a clear upgrade to Burnett: Jake Peavy who’s also better than Garcia, Colon, Nova, and Hughes.
Garcia and Colon will most likely not be Yankees next year. As much as I like Nova and Hughes, who knows if they’ll be good enough to be in the Yanks 2013 on rotations? One or both may not hack it in next year’s rotation. Heck, one or both could crumble from hereonin this year. Burnett is a #5 being paid like an ace or #2. Who are the Yanks getting via trade without giving up top prospects? Who’s available? Probably not Hernandez, Verlander, or Johnson, and even if they were, who do you give up? Why sign C.J. Wilson long-term when you have your pick among Weaver, Grienke, Hamels, and Cain et.al. after next year? Would Pettitte come out of retirement and if he did, what would he do?
Peavy earns $17M for next year with a $4M buyout or $22M club option for 2013.
He’s won’t cost top prospects. He’s a year or two commitment. He has to sing for his supper twice. He’s in a walk year next year. He’s only 30 years old so he won’t be old after 2013 either. He’s insurance against Sabathia signing elsewhere. He could help this year’s Yankees win it all.
No one including the Red Sox would block a Yankee claim on Peavy and if the Yanks offered to take on all of Peavy’s remaining salary, they wouldn’t have to give up a top prospect for him. I think the White Sox would make the trade because it’s $21M off the books for next year, they get rid of the risk of having a bad $21M pitcher or good in 2012/bad in 2013 $39M pitcher, and they still have a rotation of Floyd, Danks, Humber, and Buerhle as I think he’ll stay with them. They have unlimited possibilities for the final rotation slot with $21M off the books. They could use that money to sign some hitters.
Peavy is a high-risk, high-reward year or two proposition. Could he get hurt again? Yeah, but Sabathia could opt out, re-sign with the Yanks, and get hurt, too? There’s a risk of injury with every player. ‘Thing with Peavy is if he gets hurt, you can let go of him after just one year. You can’t do the same with C.J. Wilson. Would it be so far-fetched for the Yanks to re-sign Sabathia to a new seven-year deal and he winds up the Yankees version of Johann Santana With The Mets? Sabathia is 31 and a big guy. Would it be so far-fetched for Sabathia to show up to camp 275 pounds one spring training and then what?
This blog is like Brian Cashman: Go with what you have. NO! Go out and get Peavy. Enough of this nonsense about someone stepping up to be the #2 in the postseason when it’s probably not happening and Burnett and let the Yanks only rotation concern be who starts Game 4 of the ALDS, Colon or Nova.
You wrote this yesterday in another thread and I responded there too.
There’s at least $24.5M left on Jake Peavy’s contract and he’s not better than AJ Burnett. This would be a waste of time and money.
Let’s say the Yanks make it to the ALCS and draw the Red Sox there, and their rotation is Sabathia/???/Garcia if you want Sabathia to make three starts and Garcia to pitch with the Yanks down 0-2, up 2-0, or tied. Who is the Game 2 starter, Colon? Could he pitch on short rest for Game 5? Do you even 80% trust Colon to keep the series from going 2-0 Red Sox if the Yanks lose Game 1? Would you trust Burnett for Game 2? I wouldn’t. I wouldn’t even trust him for Game 4 with the Yanks up 3-0. All the Yanks need is another 2004 ALCS with Burnett striking the match. Get outta here with Nova or Hughes for Game 2. Bottom line is you need Sabathia against Boston three times not two.
Riddle me this:
What starting pitcher are the Yanks getting via trade before or during the 2013 season and what top prospect/s will be traded for him as they’re not getting someone without giving up Montero, Banuelos, Betances, or any two of them? The White Sox aren’t getting any of them trading Peavy.
What starting pitcher are the Yanks signing for the rotation in the offseason and is he as good as or better than Weaver, Grienke, Hamels, or Cain (all four free agents after 2012)? If Peavy’s solid in 2012 he could be the #2 or dual-ace with one of them. Would a Weaver/Cain/Peavy front three be out of the question if one from Nova, Hughes, or Banuelos are good enough to be the #4 to start 2013 (Burnett’s an overpaid #5 to me)? And would that not be a World Series contending rotation? It sure would.
Who is the Yanks ace if Sabathia signs elsewhere? Don’t tell me Burnett or C.J. Wilson the former reliever turned #3 starter with exactly TWO full decent not great seasons as a starter under his belt. I trust Peavy to be that over both, certainly Burnett.
Who is the #2 Sabathia remaining a Yankee or not? Don’t tell me Burnett. Great CC stays, if he stays (I hope he doesn’t only cuz of his age and size) but who’s the 2 in the 1-2? Boston has Beckett-Lester, Texas has Ugando-Wilson, Detroit has Verlander-Scherer, Cleveland has Masterson-Tomlin or Jimenez, Los Angeles has Weaver-Haren. Even lowly Seattle has Hernandez-Pineda or Vargas and so-so Oakland has Gonzalez-Cahill. You could even say the White Sox have Buerhle-Floyd/Danks/Peavy. The Yanks? Sabathia-Garcia I guess, but I don’t see Garcia returning to the Yanks then equalling or topping his 2011 next year. I think Garcia would go back to being the servicable old veteran #5 the Yanks signed him to be. He’d do nicely with a small or mid-market team in need of an inexpensive veteran #5 and presence.
If you can’t definitively answer those questions and CC signs elsewhere cuz the Yanks don’t want the final 3 or 4 years of his 7 or 8 year contract, then the 2012 Yankees rotation will be Overpriced #3 As The Ace/Burnett/Nova/Hughes/Who Knows Who? and the 2012 Yanks will be battling the Orioles for fourth place/to avoid last place.
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How can you bash Wilson, and yet call Peavy a number 1 or 2? The Peavy you are talking about no long exists, injuries have taken him away. The man hasn’t had a WAR of 3 or above since 2007, his K/9 is under 7 per 9 for the first time in his career, and his velocity is all the way down to 90 MPH average (career low). Yes, all pitcher have some degree of injury risk, but very few carry the same risk as Jake. He’s suffered an injury uncharted in pitchers, and he will always be one pitch away from his career being over. He’s also a max effort guy, and because of that it makes it all the more likely he will re-injure himself. It’s much more a matter of when, not if. Maybe if the Sox wanted to swap Peavy for Burnett it’s something worth doing, simply to get the contract off the book sooner. But that won’t happen, and there is no reason to take on his contract, with his downgraded play, at his level of risk.
Sabathia will be back. He wants to stay in New York, and the Yankees will give him whatever it takes to keep him around. Anything we do from here on out, Sabathia will be apart of. All move will be made around that.
I think if you put AJ in the pen you probably lose him mentally. He’d certainly be useless the rest of this year, and he would probably be the same for the remainder of the deal. He’s making a lot of money, if you’re going to eat it all and make him a middle reliever just cut the man loose. Either way he isn’t going to help the team.