As Mike Axisa outlined yesterday over at RAB (UPDATE: Chad Jennings confirms), the combination of Saturday’s doubleheader and the relative struggles of Phil Hughes and success of Ivan Nova has made it likely that the Yankees will go to a 6 man rotation for the next week. This is likely a one time deal, as the Yankees could have gone to a 6 man rotation when Hughes first returned if they were amenable to the idea. However, I think it might make sense for the club to stick with 6 starters for the entirety of August, and then shift back to a normal rotation. I think this plan has a number of advantages:

1) Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have pitched incredibly well, but both are health risks who need to be babied. This season, more than any other in recent memory, depends on the Yankees getting to October with their current roster intact. Colon is at 109 IP, which is already his most since 2005, and Garcia is on pace to exceed last season’s 157 IP, which was his largest total since 2006. The Yanks need both of these guys pitching well in October, so giving them some extra rest would be prudent.

2) Similarly, while I originally considered going to a 6 man rotation with CC Sabathia remaining on regular rest, it would be a logistical nightmare and CC might benefit from some rest as well. CC is on pace to pass his career high of 253 IP, set in 2008, so it might make sense to save some of those bullets for October. While costing CC a start might hurt the Yankees slightly in the standings, an exhausted CC Sabathia would impact them far more.

3) It allows the Yankees to continue to evaluate Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes at the MLB level. The last spot in the Yankees playoff rotation is up for grabs, and I think it is too soon to simply declare Hughes to be broken and just stick him in the bullpen or AAA. This would give the Yankees 4-5 starts to figure out whether Hughes or Nova is a better fit for a postseason start, or if both should take a back seat to AJ Burnett.

The plan is limited to August because, as friend of the blog Steve H. mentioned, pitchers are creatures of habit and it makes sense to have them back on routine for the postseason. If the pitchers show some discomfort with the idea and it impacts their performance, or if one of the younger arms falters, the team could just pull the plug on the experiment and go back to a normal rotation. Here’s how August would break down (Note that Hughes cannot be pulled this time through the rotation due to the double header and that there is a double header at the end of the month that would require 6 pitchers, so this plan only truly impacts the middle 3 turns through the rotation):

Mon, 8/1 at White Sox     Sabathia
Tue, 8/2 at White Sox      Hughes
Wed, 8/3 at White Sox    Burnett
Thu, 8/4 at White Sox     Nova
Fri, 8/5 at Red Sox           Colon
Sat, 8/6 at Red Sox           Sabathia
Sun, 8/7 at Red Sox         Garcia
Tue, 8/9 Angels                Hughes
Wed, 8/10 Angels            Burnett
Thu, 8/11 Angels              Nova
Fri, 8/12 Rays                   Colon
Sat, 8/13 Rays                   Sabathia
Sun, 8/14 Rays                 Garcia
Mon, 8/15 at Royals       Hughes
Tue, 8/16 at Royals         Burnett
Wed, 8/17 at Royals       Nova
Thu, 8/18 at Twins        Colon
Fri, 8/19 at Twins           Sabathia
Sat, 8/20 at Twins         Garcia
Sun, 8/21 at Twins        Hughes
Tue, 8/23 Athletics        Burnett
Wed, 8/24 Athletics      Nova
Thu, 8/25 Athletics       Colon
Fri, 8/26 at Orioles       Sabathia
Sat, 8/27 at Orioles      Garcia
Sat, 8/27 at Orioles      Hughes
Sun, 8/28 at Orioles    Burnett
Mon, 8/29 at Orioles   Nova
Tue, 8/30 at Red Sox   Colon
Wed, 8/31 at Red Sox  Sabathia

(Return to normal rotation)
Thu, 9/1 at Red Sox      Garcia
Fri, 9/2 Blue Jays         Burnett
Sat, 9/3 Blue Jays        Nova/Hughes
Sun, 9/4 Blue Jays      Colon
Mon, 9/5 Orioles        Sabathia

Interestingly, this would set up the Yankees’ top 3 pitchers to make all 9 starts against their top AL East rivals, while giving the older guys and CC a bit of a breather and allowing the club to evaluate their younger arms at the back of the rotation. I am all for it.

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21 Responses to A 6 Man Rotation?

  1. Duh, Innings! says:

    I am against a six-man rotation. Hughes does not belong in the rotation anymore after his start tomorrow night he has to make unless the Yanks call up someone else to make it. I would have no problem if someone other than Hughes got the call to start tomorrow night. The Yanks should not change their rotation to accomodate Hughes again. They already changed their rotation for him once by replacing Nova with him. Why should the Yanks make another change? Hughes has sucked twice this year: his first three starts and his return. He sucked in last year’s ALCS. He has been a #5 since his first 13 starts of last year. Hughes should be demoted to AAA like Nova was then called up in September or moved to the bullpen if they can’t send him down.

    The Yanks do not have four games to play with (four starts with Hughes) with the Angels and Rangers not too far behind the Yanks, and this isn’t extended spring training. I see no point in him being in the rotation when he will most likely not be in the postseason rotation with Sabathia, Burnett, Garcia, Colon, Nova, and possibly a veteran waiver-wire pickup in front of him. His 2011 should be over and he should look towards 2012. The Yanks should listen to any offers for him in the offseason and trade him if the offer is right. They should trade him if the return is too good to pass up.

    Nova is now 9-4 with a 4.01 ERA thus should be given the ball every fifth game with one exception noted below.

    My rotation after 8/7 in parentheses. All veterans vs. the Angels the team directly behind the Yanks for the wildcard. You cannot have Hughes and Nova against the Angels because that could set up the Angels to sweep the Yanks and then it’s panic time esp. if the Angels gain a game or more on the Yanks going into the series. Remember the Rangers are potential wildcard contenders, too, being slightly better than the Angels. No Sabathia vs. the Rays but he draws the Royals, Twins, and Orioles and still starts against Boston. Also he’s guaranteed to face Boston 9/1 if 8/31 is rained out before the game is played. Burnett faces three good teams in the Angels, Rays, and Red Sox as he should for the money he’s making. The other day I wrote how the Yanks should keep him away from Boston, scratch that. No more free ride for this guy. I now believe the only way he will come out of his .500 crappiness is to face the big dogs and show the Yanks he can be the Game 2 or 4 ALDS/ALCS/WS starter.

    Mon, 8/1 at White Sox Sabathia
    Tue, 8/2 at White Sox Hughes
    Wed, 8/3 at White Sox Burnett
    Thu, 8/4 at White Sox Nova
    Fri, 8/5 at Red Sox Colon
    Sat, 8/6 at Red Sox Sabathia
    Sun, 8/7 at Red Sox Garcia
    Tue, 8/9 Angels Hughes (Burnett)
    Wed, 8/10 Angels Burnett (Colon)
    Thu, 8/11 Angels Nova (Sabathia)
    Fri, 8/12 Rays Colon (Garcia)
    Sat, 8/13 Rays Sabathia (Nova)
    Sun, 8/14 Rays Garcia (Burnett)
    Mon, 8/15 at Royals Hughes (Colon)
    Tue, 8/16 at Royals Burnett (Sabathia)
    Wed, 8/17 at Royals Nova (Garcia)
    Thu, 8/18 at Twins Colon (Nova)
    Fri, 8/19 at Twins Sabathia (Burnett)
    Sat, 8/20 at Twins Garcia (Colon)
    Sun, 8/21 at Twins Hughes (Sabathia)
    Tue, 8/23 Athletics Burnett (Nova)
    Wed, 8/24 Athletics Nova (Garcia)
    Thu, 8/25 Athletics Colon (Burnett)
    Fri, 8/26 at Orioles Sabathia
    Sat, 8/27 at Orioles Garcia
    Sat, 8/28 at Orioles Hughes (Nova)
    Sun, 8/29 at Orioles Burnett(Colon)
    Mon, 8/30 at Red Sox Nova (Burnett)
    Tue, 8/31 at Red Sox Colon (Sabathia)
    Wed, 9/1 at Red Sox Sabathia (Garcia)

  2. YankeesJunkie says:

    While the six man rotation is fine for this week considering the double header last Saturday any further is dumb. While CC has more innings on him arm his pitch count for the year is fine. There are still off days to give Colon and Garcia extra rest. More importantly, a six man rotation makes a roster more inflexible and unless every starter is going to go 120 pitches a start is a waste when starters can go every five games. This is a bad trend and stance to take. It does not matter if the Yankees had seven qualified starters only five should be starting. I think Hughes gets one more chance and if he flops he gets demoted to the pen or AAA and if he succeeds then Nova gets demoted to AAA.

  3. shimig says:

    clearly using your 6th best starter is a waste of roster space and an inefficient use of resources.there is no need for the yankees to throw away games by using hughes. he has proven to be a successful reliever maybe a move to the pen gets his confidence back.

    • T.O. Chris says:

      What does he do out of the pen? Long relieve? With Robertson, Mariano, and now Soriano, he doesn’t have a spot where he would pitch important innings.

      I was under the impression that Hughes was out of options, but Joel Sherman tweeted over the weekend that he did in fact somehow have 1 option left. Now maybe he just doesn’t know what he’s talking about, but I would prefer that to putting him into the pen. I would even be OK with Hughes going back on the DL, so he can continue to work as a starter. He’s going to need to be in the rotation next year, so I would like to see him work towards that in some way.

    • Moshe Mandel says:

      This assumes that Hughes is clearly their 6th best starter. I am not saying he is not, right now, but I think it is fair to want more information in that regard.

  4. YankeesJunkie says:

    I think my rushed explanation for not having a six man rotation was not logical so here I go.

    1. As the point with CC Sabathia passing his innings from 2008 that should be looked as a plus rather than a negative. However, he is on pace for 35 starts, only 1 more than the previous 2 seasons, and only 3 more pitches per start than the previous two with the Yankees. The increase in innings is better explained by an increase in efficiency and dominance and CC should not be punished for being more dominant and counting innings.

    2. While Colon and Garcia are going to exceed innings from the last few years they can still get extra days off during off days and if that does not work then they can have some of their starts shortened by 10 or 15 pitches.

    3. However my largest complaint is that with a six man rotation you distributing innings to starters in a terrible way. Hughes and Nova are at the bottom of the starting barrel. To double the number of innings at the mercy of more effective starters is lunacy considering that the Yankees are in the midst of not only a playoff berth, but a division win and home field advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs. As it stands now CC gets 20% of the starts while the #5 also get 20% of the starts. If a six man rotation is employed that number decreases to 16.5% for Sabathia and 33% for Hughes and Nova. Which one seems more beneficial in getting Yankee wins?

    4.A six man rotation still continues with a 7 man bullpen and puts more pressure on position players to stay healthy.

    While resting players is nice and a six man rotation would certainly do that it should not be implemented until position is determined in the playoffs and not with a third of the season left. Deciding on whether Hughes or Nova is definitely a tough decision, but rewarding them with more starts is just not logical considering they are the worst pitchers of the group. Tough decisions need to be made all the time and this is just another situation.

    • Moshe Mandel says:

      While I think you make some valid points, your argument is overstated. Firstly, getting CC some rest is, I think, a valid goal, even if the inning total might be a bit misleading. As for Colon and Garcia, I’d prefer to get them as much rest as possible, I’m sure you can see the wisdom in that. Additionally, while Hughes and Nova are the “bottom of the barrel” right now, It is conceivable that one could be the 4th guy in October. I’d like more time to sort that out.

      Most importantly, as to your argument about costing them wins, the 6th guy is taking one start each from the other 5 guys. At a .600 winning percentage, you’d expect the Yankees to go 3-2 over those games typically. With a 5.00 ERA guy (assuming the 6th guy is not better than that), you’d probably expect 2-3, a number I am comfortable with given this offense. Sacrificing one win to keep this very precarious rotation fairly fresh and to give more time to figure out the 5th starter spot seems like a fair plan to me. I certainly do not think it is lunacy.

      • bg90027 says:

        If they were fighting for the wild card it might be lunacy but they look like a near lock to make the playoffs. Keeping guys fresh and healthy and getting a longer look at Hughes and Nova to decide the playoff starters is a more important goal than trying to win that extra game at all costs.

        I’d be surprised if Burnett isn’t one of the playoff starters.

        • T.O. Chris says:

          I’d be surprised if Burnett wasn’t the number 2 starter come playoff time. There is a chance he ends up as the number 3 if Colon is hot going in, but I imagine they want to hold him back until game 3.

          I understand wanting to get an extra look at Hughes and Nova, but I’m not so sure it’s a good enough reason to throw everyone off their schedule like this. I’ve heard starters for years say one of the reasons for a 4 man rotation, is because guys don’t lose their touch, or feel for pitching nearly as much with less rest. Considering how good Sabathia has been, and how much Garcia and Colon rely on control it seems like this could throw the whole rotation off. I’m not a fan of the 6 man rotation for any extended period of time.

          • Moshe Mandel says:

            Really? I think if things continue this way, he will be 4th, like he was last year.

            • T.O. Chris says:

              I wouldn’t put him 2 but I think he’ll be there. Maybe they trust Colon and Garcia that much, I just figure they will go with Burnett since neither of these two have made starts that late in years. Burnett hasn’t been as bad as he was last year, because of that I think they will do what they did in 2009 with Sabathia and Burnett 1 and 2.

              I personally would go with Colon 2 if he is still pitching strong, but I have doubts about Garcia’s gameplan in the playoffs. At most I would have him as my 4th starter, he could have success, but I doubt he will be that effective. He has had a great season, better than I ever would have thought. But he also isn’t facing a steady stream of Boston and Texas, like he will come playoff time. That leaves AJ as my third starter, if for no other reason than he’s the one that’s left. I could see Nova being the 4th starter over Garcia depending on how they both finish, but I can’t make him the number 3 starter and expect to win the World Series. The Yankees may make him the 4th starter, but I also can’t see them making Nova anything more than that.

              Your rotation would be CC, Colon, Garcia, AJ? I can see that, but as volatile as he is AJ can still dominate a good offense on the right nights. I don’t see Garcia being able to do that against the likes of Texas and Boston, and I think he has a similar chance to blowup.

    • Ted Nelson says:

      1. Resting CC is not “punishing” him… It would be intended to help him both this season and long-term, since the Yankees are about to lay out huge long-term money to him through most of his 30s. We’re talking about taking 1 start away, not 5.

      2. If you think resting Colon and Garcia is important, it’s hard to use that as an argument *against* a 6-man rotation.

      3. The Yankees are pretty well assured of making the playoffs. Making the playoffs as the Wild Card with their starting rotation in tact so that their top 3 starters can start two games each in a series is a whole lot better than getting home field but losing starting pitchers in the process. It’s not assured that Colon and Garcia will burn out, but it’s likely enough that I think a 6-man rotation is worth it.

      I’m not convinced by your argument. The only point I find convincing is giving more starts to inferior pitchers, but when weighing that against resting everyone, getting to see both (25 and under year olds) Hughes and Nova compete/develop, and the fact that the Yankees are practically in the playoffs already… I think the 6-man rotation wins easily. At the end of the day even that argument is marginalized because we’re talking about taking 1 start away from CC.

  5. T.O. Chris says:

    I’m against anything that takes CC away from pitching on his regular rotation. This team needs Sabathia to start, and start the way he does. He takes pressure off the lineup, bullpen, and the rest of the rotation. Sure he may be on pace for a new career high in innings, but honestly we pay him to carry us like an ace. He’s also currently pitching better than he has in his entire Yankee career, I want to continue to ride that as long as possible.

    I understand wanting to rest CC for the postseason run, but I honestly think it’s too early to start planning like that. We aren’t going to be pitching CC on short rest 3 straight games to end the season, so I think he’ll be fine.

    • Ted Nelson says:

      There’s certainly an argument against a 6 man rotation, but to make it I think you have to look at the entire team and not just CC.

      If keeping CC on schedule adds a win or two on the season, but overworking Colon, Garcia, etc. costs the Yankees three regular season wins and burns those guys out before the playoffs… it’s a net loss.

      You have to make an argument not just that CC is a great pitcher, but that a 5 man is better for the team as a whole.

      • YankeesJunkie says:

        A six man rotation is not the only answer to preserving both Colon and Garcia while keeping a five set. If they really feel inclined for increased rest they can just skip one or two of their starts through the rest of the season. The Yankees could still use the other five starters and give a resting Colon or Garcia a stint in the pen between starts. However, the idea of taking starts away from CC I find is counter productive and this resting starters should not lead to a six man rotation in first of August.

        • Ted Nelson says:

          “If they really feel inclined for increased rest they can just skip one or two of their starts through the rest of the season.”

          A. Have you even bothered to look at the schedule to see if this is theoretically possible with double-headers, make-up games, and days off?

          B. Or… you can just go with a 6-man rotation. You really think it’s better to juggle Colon and Garcia between the pen and the rotation than to just give all 6 capable starters that the Yankees have starts?

          “However, the idea of taking starts away from CC I find is counter productive and this resting starters should not lead to a six man rotation in first of August.”

          Again… have you thought this through at all? It will not be taking “starts” away… it will be taking one start away at most. Literally he will make 5 starts between now and 9/1 whether it’s a 5 man or 6 man. IT WILL NOT TAKE STARTS AWAY FROM CC. You need to actually look into these things before throwing shit against the wall.

          • YankeesJunkie says:

            Under a five man rotation in 30 games CC will get 6 starts, now he will only get 5 starts which is not that big of difference true. However, the #5 slot now instead of getting 6 starts gets 10. You are putting a lesser product 5 more games a month (this does not include off days) or 16.6% of the time which is absurd if you are still trying to win a division.

  6. [...] Mandel of The Yankee Analyst lays out this argument very well. This would give Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon some additional [...]

  7. Ted Nelson says:

    Good stuff. I agree that this makes sense on a number of fronts: rest, getting Nova and Hughes reps so long as both deserve them, and lining up the rotation to test the top 3 against playoff caliber teams…

    If Hughes falters, perhaps Warren could get some starts if a spot on the 40 man can be made. All the same benefits, just replacing Hughes with getting a look at Warren.

  8. [...] Triple Girardi is to move Hughesy back to the bullpen like in 2009 and end this foolishness of a 6 man rotation. This is slowing down CC Sabathia’s march to 300 [...]

  9. [...] been a lot of talk this week about six man rotations and the Yankees. It seems that the media, too, is whipping up the competition angle when it comes [...]

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