Let’s keep the Mania going and punch Ubaldo Jimenez into one of my favorite tools in all of the baseball internet land: the the Trade Value Calculator from Beyond the Boxscore.
When we punch Ubaldo into there–using his current fWAR and splitting his salary in half for simplicity’s sake–while incorporating the rest of his (incredible) contract, Ubaldo ends up with a trade value of $57.5M. So, what equals $57.5M from the Yankees in terms of prospects? Let’s run over to John Sickles farm system ratings where we can dig up the “worth” of each style of prospect:
Top 10 hitting prospects $32.5M
Top 11-25 hitters $22.3
Top 26-50 hitters $20.8
Top 51-75 hitters $12.6
Top 76-100 hitters $11.1
Top 10 pitching prospects $13.5
Top 11-25 pitchers $14.2
Top 26-50 pitchers $14.2
Top 51-75 pitchers $10.8
Top 76-100 pitchers $8.7
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels) $6.5
Grade B hitters $4.9
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger $1.9
Grade C pitchers 23 or older $1.3
Grade C hitters 22 or younger $0.62
Grade C hitters 23 or older $0.45
We know the Yankees have a top ten hitting prospect in Jesus Montero, so that makes up $32.5M of the 57.5M theoretically needed to acquire Jimenez. That leaves us with $25M to make up. We could start with an 11-25 hitter, but the Yankees don’t have that, so we’ll move on to the pitchers. Let’s use the BA Midseason top 50 as our guide here. It lists Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances at 13 and 26 respectively. Each guy brings $14.2M of trade value, for a total of $28.4M. That gives us an excess of $3.4M. Theoretically, that alone should be enough to land Jimenez, but we know that’s not what’s going to happen. The Rockies will want more players and the Yankees won’t want to give up three of their best prospects in one deal, even if it was a deal for Jimenez. Let’s take one of them out of the deal and see what we can build. Since they’re both labeled as having the same value, we’ll forget about the name for now. Leaving Montero in and taking one of Manellin Betanous gives us $46.7M, so we need to make up $10.8M to get the value all squared away.
We’ll fill in the blanks with the grades given here.
Throwing in a Grade-B pitching prospect–Hector Noesi, perhaps–adds $6.5M, so we’re down to $4.3 to make up. If the Yankees want to throw another hitter into the deal, they could use Brandon Laird and his C+ ranking which, combined with his age, 23, gives him a pretty low value of $0.45M. Now we still need to make up $3.85M of value. Someone else would have to be added to make up the value, but it may push the level a bit too high on the Yankees side.
Instead of doing Laird + someone else they could add another B-level pitcher–Adam Warren, perhaps–to make up the value. That would give another $6.5M and would push the Yankees’ total to $59.7M. It’s a bit over what we said Jimenez would be worth, but I’m willing to live with it.
So what could our proposal be? I think it could be one of these two:
Ubaldo Jimenez for: Jesus Montero, ONE of Manny Banuelos OR Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, Brandon Laird, and one non Adam Warren or Ivan Nova pitcher.
Ubaldo Jimenez for Jesus Montero, ONE of Manny Banuelos OR Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, and Adam Warren.
You could replace Warren with Ivan Nova in the second deal, but I don’t think the Yankees would do that (even if we’d prefer they did).
Remember, this is all essentially theoretical. Still, I think this type of exercise is fun. And, when I look at these two proposals, they’re not that far off from what the Rockies are reportedly asking for which is, of course, a very high starting point.
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