For all of 2011, we’ve marveled at Bartolo Colon‘s ability to be successful despite not mixing his pitches too much. He’s relied on good location and great movement on his two-seam fastball to catch a bunch of batters looking at strike three. Last night, we saw what can go wrong when the fastball just isn’t working.
Colon’s velocity was more or less fine last night. His velocity averaged 92.52 on the four seamer and maxed out at 95.3. The two seamer was averaging 90.72 and topped out at 92.5 (per Brooks). Per Texas Leaguers, those numbers just about match his season averages (92.4 and 90.8 MPH respectively). It’s also worth nothing that his vertical and horizontal movement on both pitches were about where they should be. Of course, that’s just part of the equation.
Throughout the year, Colon has paired his sometimes mind-blowing movement with precise control but that just didn’t happen last night. He issued four walks while striking out just one and it seemed like everything that left the Rays’ bats last night was hit hard. Here’s why:
That two seamer, in light blue, which has usually been on the corners in his previous starts, just found way too much of the middle of the plate. The same goes for the sliders that he threw. It’s easy to see why the Rays hit Bartolo around.
This is the danger that Colon assumes each time he takes the mound. His reliance on one pitch can make him brilliant, or it can be his undoing like it was last night. Still, I can’t be too worried about this and neither should you. He may’ve been dominant in his first outing back from the disabled list, but I think we should’ve expected some more bumps along the road. What’s comforting is that Colon’s velocity was there, as was the movement. If those things start to disappear and this control problem repeats itself for a few starts. This problem can also present itself with Phil Hughes, as we’ve seen when his command is off or his velocity isn’t quite there. When that stuff happens, the one trick pony act just isn’t going to work.
To anyone out there wants to use this game as an “I told you so!” about Colon, well, that’s just silly. This is one bad start and the Yankees have already gotten more out of Colon than they could’ve imagined.
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4 Responses to The delicate (Bartolo) balance
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TIQ IQ
Good analysis. Certainly no one should complain about the ratio of good Bartolo to bad Bartolo starts. Much, much, etc. better than we could have hoped for when he was signed. I’d love that ratio for the rest of the season.
Word. Two bad starts from Colon through 86 games. Colon is making only $900K with no incentives.
Matt, your last sentence sums it up perfectly.
If Colon’s arm were to explode today the signing would still be Cashman’s best of the year. Colon has been awesome.