With less than a week to go before the trade deadline, there has been little buzz about the Yankees aggressively perusing a trade. Ubaldo Jimenez remains “unlikely” to be traded and the rest of the market looks rather thin. Hiroki Kuroda and a list of lesser pitchers also appear to be available. Certainly, as far as pitching goes there isn’t much to get excited about. On the other side of the ball, Carlos Beltran and BJ Upton are dominating the rumors, linked to teams like the Giants, Braves, Rangers and Phillies. Colby Rasmus may be available as well. As far as the Yankees go, we haven’t heard much.
I think that’s a good thing. Here’s my rambling, most likely incoherent conditions/philosophy/strategy about this specific trade deadline.
1. Offensive upgrades are coming. A lot has been made over the relative malaise of the Yankee offense in July. I think that’s probably fair. Without Alex Rodriguez, especially without him hitting for power, the Yankee lineup is obviously not running at full speed. Teixeira has had a slow month (he’s looked much better of late however) and the deaths of Russell Martin and Jorge Posada have been well noted. Throw in Francisco Cervelli and Eduardo Nunez getting frequent PA’s and it hasn’t always been pretty. That should all change soon. Either today or tomorrow Eric Chavez is likely to be activated which should swiftly cut into the playing time designated for Eduardo Nunez. In as little as three weeks the Yankees should be getting an upgrade that would dwarf all but the most expensive trade options at this juncture- a healthy Alex Rodriguez. If that still isn’t enough and the organization feels it needs even more production (something that seems highly unlikely), a very young, very bored gentleman named Jesus Montero awaits in AAA where he would likely be an upgrade over Jorge Posada at DH or (offensively only) over Martin at catcher. I cannot fathom why the Yankees would need to trade for another big time bat when they have one giant internal option they haven’t tried yet. A rental bat that costs anything substantial I feel would be superfluous.
2. There is no reason to acquire additional 3-5 type starters. The only two guys I’ve heard bandied about that interest me are Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields. The Rays have told the Yankees they won’t trade him to a divisional rival and then went ahead and yanked him from the market just this week. As I said before, the rumors now have Ubaldo staying put. Hiroki Kuroda is intriguing to me if the price is low. I’m not smart enough to know how he would translate into Yankee stadium and the AL East but I think he’d be solid. However I’m against trading for any sort of 3-5 starting pitcher. The Yankees have a ton of these. I wouldn’t be interested in trading anything remotely good for an option likely to be stuck into the backend of the rotation. If they’re desperate for a backend option, Ivan Nova, Adam Warren and David Phelps remain internal, cheap options. Obviously if Ubaldo or (Spaghetti Monster willing) Felix Hernandez became available, I think the Yankees should jump face first into that. I think Felix is the guy to really give it all away for but Ubaldo is right behind him. I feel strongly the Yankees need another force at the top of the rotation with CC.
3. Don’t overpay for another reliever. This kills me. Keith Law today just wrote about how often those deals backfire in a serious way and I couldn’t agree more. Damaso Marte and Pedro Feliciano obviously haven’t worked out too well. Heath Bell will probably be available this week. Yes, it would be great to have Heath Bell on the Yankees setting up Mariano Rivera. The cost of acquiring a CLOSER, especially one like Heath Bell is absurdly high, mostly because of THE SAVE. It’s an awful cycle of ridiculousness. Again, the Yankees are going to get a pretty good relief pitcher back today or tomorrow, Rafael Soriano. Coming off the DL, who knows what we can expect. He’s been quite a bit worse than I think anyone imagined when healthy this year. Whether it’s because he’s unhappy over his role or he’s just flat out sucked, I have no idea. I think a safe bet, not a lock but a safe bet, would be for him to improve on what he’s done so far. If the Yankees do acquire another reliever, I hope the deal looks like the Kerry Wood trade last year- mostly a low cost salary dump. The Yankees bullpen as currently constituted has a 3.30 FIP and has been worth 4.5 WAR, second only in baseball to the Braves. With the way David Robertson has been setting up the always fantastic Mariano Rivera, the bullpen doesn’t need a major overhaul. Instead of repaving the entire road, maybe they could just patch up some pot holes. Nothing drastic needs to be done here.
4. Boone Logan is just fine as a LOOGY. I’m actually serious. When used properly, Boone Logan really is good against left handed hitters. This goes against my inner most feelings as a human. On most days, I would not only attend, but pay good money to watch Boone Logan get publically drawn and quartered over second base at the Stadium. I would even tip the executioner and spend wildly at the concessions. I swear though, he can get left handed hitters out. JC Romero awaits in AAA who can mostly do the same thing and I just can’t see a reason to even trade seashells or Confederate notes for another lefty specialist.
This isn’t about prospect hording. Yes, I write about them and love them like so many Beanie Babies. I would hug them and bring them to show and tell and impress all my friends. Would I ruthlessly cast them away for something better, say a vintage Buddy doll, in mint condition? Oh yes, yes I would. To get away from that creepy doll analogy, what I really mean is I would deal just about any package in order to acquire Felix Hernandez. What I’m talking about is not making trades in order to just DO SOMETHING. If a trade makes sense for the team, by all means go ahead and do it.
This isn’t an awful team though than needs major upgrades all over the place. Do I think it’s the best team? Absolutely not. Do I think the Yankees are good enough to make the playoffs as currently constituted? Yes, definitely. Do I think the Yankees might have a hard time advancing with this current rotation in the playoffs? Yes, I think so as well. My preference would be to go out and get a big time number 1-2 starter. They’re just don’t seem to be available though. I don’t think overpaying for a complimentary piece makes sense.
This might come as a giant shock to you, especially those who think the Yankees are ordained by the Gods to have a special place at the altar of October every single season- those who think anything less than a World Series trophy and a champagne soaked locker room is an unmitigated disaster: I would rather the Yankees go home after the first round as losers than trade everything they’ve worked to develop for some set of pieces that do not seriously upgrade the team to the next level. That’s probably controversial. I don’t care. Maybe Felix Hernandez can’t be pried loose before July 31st but what if he’s available this winter? What if another big time starting pitcher becomes available over the winter?
Look, anything can happen in the playoffs. Winning today is always better than winning tomorrow. Leveraging the future for more scratch off lottery tickets though is just not. Another 3-5 starter, another rental DH or another LH reliever may if they’re lucky tip the balance. Stranger things have happened. The Yankees are already likely going to make the playoffs. They’ll be in the dance. If they’re going to use their trade chips, especially the good ones, use them in a way that makes sense for multiple years, not just this one. For me, it’s not about waiting for a perfect chance, it’s just waiting for the right chance.
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28 Responses to My Philosophy on this Trade Deadline
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TIQ IQ
I could not agree with this more. The Yankees as constituted are good enough to make the playoffs, and probably will. If they want to win the World Series, they probably need another 1/2 type starter to match up with the Lester/Lee/Cain’s of the world. A spare part 4/5 starter or a guy to pitch in the 6th/7th inning is probably not going to make up the difference.
But giving up a Montero, Manny, or Dellin for something less than Jiminez or Hernandez is a waste.
A waste? If the Yankees acquired Ubaldo Jimenez, they would have instantly acquired a #2 starter who could start Game 3 of the 2011 ALDS, Games 2 and 6 of the ALCS and WS.
If Sabathia fell to injury the day after Jimenez was acquired, Jimenez would be the ace. If Sabathia fell to injury tonight, Garcia would be the ace. That’s scary and I like Garcia.
Doyle Alexander. David Cone. Roger Clemens All starting pitchers the Yanks traded prospects for for the stretch run who paid dividends. Alexander helped the ’76 Yanks get to their first WS since ’64, Cone helped the Yanks get to and win four WS (even 2000 on him getting Piazza out in the WS alone.) Clemens helped the Yanks win two WS and get to four. Yes, Wells was the centerpiece of that deal, but Homer Bush and another prospect had to be added in the package. No one the Yanks traded for Neagle and Weaver amounted to much save Ted Lily, but Lily is a total #4 who didn’t have the mental makeup to make it as a Yankee. I could be mistaken but Jake Westbrook started in the Expos organization and if so he was not a Yankee farmhand.
Some will say “What about Doug Drabek?” What about him? The 1989-91 Yanks still don’t make it to the postseason with him and I doubt the 1992 Yanks would’ve overcome the Blue Jays for the division title. It would’ve been close in 1993 but who knows? Drabek never went to the WS with Pittsburgh and his post-Pittsburgh career was ok at best. It took Al Leiter about a decade to get his act together as a pitcher.
You obviously did not read this well. Ubaldo is not a “waste”, he along with Felix are in the, trade to acquire, set.
Another 3-4-5th starter would be redundant. Ubaldo is certainly not that.
Whoops sorry ’bout that.
My post was really targeting anyone who says giving up top prospects for Jimenez is a waste, your post just triggered me to write what I did. You’re obviously not one of these people.
I think the right #3 would be a good acquistion if Jimenez couldn’t be acquired because if Sabathia or Garcia get hurt, Burnett becomes the #2 which he is not, at least not this year. Burnett has been the #2 in salary only ever since he’s been a Yankee.
If the Yanks could get a #3 without giving up a top prospect like Montero, Betances, or Banuelos, I say go for it. Burnett, Hughes, and Colon scare me and as great as Garcia has been most of this year (at least for what we expected him to which was far less), he’s no Jimenez.
“My preference would be to go out and get a big time number 1-2 starter.” Yes, absolutely, and if that means holding onto the most valuable chips for after the season, then so be it. I supported paying heavily for Jimenez or Shields, and would pay even more for Kershaw or Hernandez if either could be pried loose.
But other cases are less clear cut. We might disagree over whether someone such as Danks is a legit number two having a slightly off year or Buerhle is a better post-season bet than Garcia . That is most likely the kind of choice Cashman will be facing this week.
I wouldn’t mind Danks either, yeah. I’m not trading anything for the 30+ year old corpse of a guy who doesn’t strike out more than 5 guys per 9 innings though.
Sean, I think the operative words in your piece are “use your chips wisely”. I would just add “but use them”. That’s just my opinion.
Yeah, I think you should definitely use them if something comes up that makes sense. With this market though, eh…
And using them could mean bringing up Montero after the trade deadline and continue to deveop Banuelos and Betances until they’re MLB ready.
“Using the trade chips” means dealing Montero, Banuelos and Betances, just to clear that up. They’re the most valuable chips we have.
“Using them” certainly could mean calling up Montero, but Banuelos and Betances can’t be “used” this season. I would call developing them for the future standing pat.
I have actually seen people writing articles asking for Banuelos to be used as another lefty out of the pen, which I find as absolutely ridiculous. I’m not suggesting that’s what you are saying, but we should differentiate from people asking for that.
Adding Chavez, Soriano, A-Rod, and possibly Romero is better than anything the Yankees are going to get at the trade deadline, unless they sell the farm for a Ubaldo-type, which looks increasingly unlikely.
The fact that they have a comfortable advantage in the Wild Card also makes going after a minor upgrade for the lineup, rotation, or bullpen less important.
If Cash can somehow fleece Kenny Williams again and not have to give up a Montero, ManBan, or Betances to get Danks, I would support that move. And if they can get Kuroda for even less, I’d be OK with that. But otherwise, I share your sentiment, Sean.
A very good article, Sean. Yankees are 95% sure of making the playoffs. What happens during the playoffs can’t be controlled no matter how good a team they have. Yes, 3/4 great starting pitchers like the Phillies help increase the chances of winning the World Series. But even then it’s a crapshoot. And who knows A-Rod, Tex, Cano, Grandy — if all of them fire at the same time in October, and with Mariano, Soriano and Robertson in the bullpen, one great starter may well be good enough to win the championship.
I gave up a realistic hope of winning the World Series this year after the Cliff Lee snub. But for me winning the division this year and the upcoming years is more important than the World Series.
It’s all about winning the World Series. Another WS win for the Yanks would be them winning 2 of the next 3 WS and a chance at another dynasty with a WS win in 2012.
If the Yanks get Jimenez, they’ve greatly increased their chances of winning it all this year and next esp. with Chavez and Soriano returning shortly, Romero most likely getting the callup, and A-Rod coming back middle of next month.
Sabathia/Garcia/Jimenez/Burnett/Sabathia would be my Yankees 2011 ALDS rotation. I’d want Jimenez in Game 3 in case the Yanks are down 0-2 or tied.
2011 ALCS Yanks vs. Boston if the Yanks got Jimenez
Games 1 and 5: Garcia vs. Bucholz, edge Yanks
Games 2 and 6: Jimenez vs. Lester, edge Yanks
Games 3 and 7: Sabathia vs. Beckett, edge Yanks
Game 4: Burnett vs. Lackey, edge Yanks
Not to spoil your ideal pitching rotation, but what happened to Colon?
He has already stated in a previous post he moves to the pen.
@DI
I too wanted to ask your reasoning behind excluding Colon from your Ubaldo-improved post-season rotation. Frankly, just eyeballing it from here, I’d choose him over either Freddy or AJ if we were picking that rotation right now. Also, your ALCS rotation holding CC back until the third game eludes me as well. I’m probably missing something obvious, but would you care to expand a bit on those two points so I can get a better handle? Thanks in advance.
As of the way both are pitching right now, I agree that I would have Colon over Garcia in any playoff rotation. The only way I change that is if Colon’s velocity really falls off over the last couple months of the season.
Both have drawback when it comes to their style in the playoffs, but I would go with Colon’s velocity and movement, over Garcia’s “smoke and mirrors”.
@DI
Do you understand how much luck is involved in winning the World Series? Even the greatest of teams have about 55% of a chance of winning all 3 rounds of playoffs. That’s why I don’t worry too much about what will happen during the playoffs.
With reports of Kuroda appearing to waver in his anti East Coast trade , and now reading that the Astros are dropping the asking price for Wandy, Cashman just might have additional leverage to pull off a trade for ubaldo.
Maybe. Still the longest shot of happening.
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If i was the Yanks, i’d get up in the COlby Rasmus ordeal.. I mean, the guy could be almost like a Paul O’neill type deal for us going forward..Swish is due for one of those 240 21 68 type deals where he plays a solid but shaky D.. I love swish, but we really need to add a HITTER or 2 to this lineup going forward.. I think Rasmus is gonna be a 280-290 hitter with power going forward for the next 9yrs or so…
Rasmus isn’t going to come cheap, and having to play right field with us severely hurts his overall value on our team. From what I understand it would take a prospect on the level of Banuelos or Montero to get him, which is too much for Rasmus. If he could be had for cheap it would be a nice move, but they aren’t moving him for peanuts.
Good article Sean. However I disagree with you about Logan. He has not been dominant against lefties this year. He’s been good but not dominant, and that’s what they need. Damaso Marte was dominant against lefties in the postseason. Logan is not the same.
What you have to take into consideration is the following question: Would you feel comfortable with bringing in Boone Logan in a big spot in the ALCS to face Adrian Gonzalez or David Ortiz? I sure as hell wouldn’t.
UBaldo is 6-9 with a 4.20 era in an average NL division, lost 3-4 mph off of his fastball since last year and has suspect mechanics. What about this guy screams that the Yanks need to give up their top prospects to get him??
Sorry, I would rather have Danks at half the price.
He has a 4.20 ERA, but he has a 3.48 FIP. He has been much more unlucky than you realize, and he has been one of the best road pitchers in baseball.
Also according to fangraphs he has only lost 1.90 MPH off his fastball average, Not 3-4.
This is slightly off topic….but one thing that surely isn’t helping the Yankees offense right now is having to deal with egos. (aka – sloting the line-up) Gardner needs to lead-off..period! Jeter is not a lead-off hitter…nor is he a #2 hitter any longer. Tex is not a #3 hitter and has zero business being in that slot.
The line-up (when everyone is healthy) should be something like: Gardner, Swisher, Cano, Arod, Grandy, Tex, Chavez (DH), Martin and Jeter.
Will this ever happen? no.
I personally would hate that lineup. You move the two players with the 2nd most home runs in baseball to 5th and 6th, and lose all of Granderson’s run scoring ability.