Let’s get nuts.
Apparently the Rays are thinking about dealing right handed pitcher James Shields. Ken Rosenthal, however, says that an offseason deal is more likely. Let’s first assume that Shields will be available and that, even though we haven’t heard anything, the Yankees are interested. Honestly, why wouldn’t they be? Shields is a good pitcher and does have a fairly manageable contract. Yeah, he’s in division and that might complicate things, but that should never really hold a team back from at least inquiring on a good pitcher.
I’ll run Shields and his contract through the trade value calculator and see what he’s theoretically worth in a trade both now (like I did with Ubaldo Jimenez here; read that post for the relevant background info on the trade value calculator and the prospect values and what not) and projected through the rest of the season.
Going just on what he’s done this season and with his contract going forward (a bunch of club options that would almost be guaranteed to be picked up) and assuming Type-A free agent status, Shields has a value of $37.6M. Using our prospect values, we can say that right now, Shields would be worth Jesus Montero and one other player, presumably a Grade B pitcher like Hector Noesi. Even though Shields is good, that’s a lot to give up for him. I’ve said before that I’d trade Montero in the right package, but I’m not sure I’d do it in a package for Shields. He’s good and pretty cost effective, but I’m still not sure I’d pull that trigger. Would you? Would you do it straight up?
If we plug in Shields’s ZiPS rest of season projections of 90 innings and a 3.55 FIP into this calculator and adjust his salary in the trade value calculator, his value shoots up about $10M to $47.5M, which would (obviously) increase the prospect cost. Again, I’d still be hesitant to give up anything huge for Shields, and that has nothing to do with his pitching for a division rival.
I like James Shields a lot as a pitcher and I think he would definitely help the Yankees. He’s clearly talented, has been a steady performer in a tough division, and has a good, relatively team friendly contract. Despite that, I’m not sure if the theoretical cost here is “cheap” enough for me to want to deal pieces for Shields. I don’t see this one happening.
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9 Responses to Imagining Shields
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TIQ IQ
I’m imagining (hoping) Shields is traded to an N.L. team hahaha.
Ditto.
An even bigger, better dream:
1. Yanks get Ublado Jimenez by this year’s trading deadline.
2. Shields is traded to an N.L. team in the offseason.
3. Price worsens (he’d already be rendered less dangerous without Shields.)
4. Beckett goes back to being mediocre so Boston’s rotation has one surefire lock to post 15-20 wins and a sub 4 ERA in Lester.
I don’t get how Price gets “less dangerous” without Shields. He’d still be one of the best in the game.
No Shields means Price is less likely to help the Rays win a series against the Yanks, so Price is less dangerous.
The degree of danger Price in a Shields-less Rays rotation poses to the Yanks is entirely a function of how the rotation behind Price does in a series vs. the Yanks. The better the rotation after Price does in a series vs. the Yanks, the more dangerous Price is.
If the Rays are in position to win a series in the final game of it and Price starts that game, he is as dangerous as ever. If he started and won the first game of a series, the Yanks would probably feel they could win the series 2-1 or 3-1 cuz they lost to the best guy the Rays have and if they did that, Price is less of a danger cuz he was the only loss.
I’m thinking in terms of the whole Rays rotation.
Would you give a hoot about Lester if Beckett was no longer a Red Sock with the crap rotation they’d have after Lester and Bucholz and Bucholz being no great shakes? I wouldn’t.
Btw on a completely unrelated note, anyone on here into Squeeze?
Yesterday I did a YouTube search for them when I ran across “Pulling Mussels From A Shell.” I haven’t heard that song in at least fifteen years.
Call me lascivious, but I thought the song title/lyrics were “Pulling Muscles For Michelle” like the dude was vacationing at some beach resort and he was pulling his muscles from well, you know, with “Michelle” LOL!
How is Montero and Noesi alot to give up for the Rays’ #2 starter? And doesn’t Shields pitch well against the Red Sox? If he does, he’s a prized commodity for a potential Yanks-Red Sox ALCS showdown and edge Yanks.
Noesi is a mopup man for the Yanks and Montero isn’t a good catcher yet.
2012 Yankees rotation: Sabathia/Shields/Burnett/Hughes/Nova
Let’s see what Montero and Noesi are made of in x to 18 games against the Yanks if Montero even plays everyday (I’m sure he would but you never know and he could always get hurt.)
It’s too much because anything that isn’t elite talent isn’t something I want to trade Jesus Montero for. Shields is good, but he isn’t elite.
The Rays are very smart, and this is smart. The guy is having the best year of his career by miles, so this would be selling at the top. Smart. Also, like the guy in Colorado they likely correctly perceive a market that is short of top starters, therefore a good time to gouge a larger haul than normal. Smart.