It's been a while since Martin put a charge into one.
Earlier this season, I took a look at Russell Martin‘s numbers, when he was off to such a hot start with the bat. Back in late May Martin was batting .266/.370/.504 and looked like he was back to the form he had in his early years in Los Angeles. At the time of the post, I concluded that Martin’s numbers would deflate. I predicted he would finish the season with an SLG around .460. After Sunday’s game Martin is batting .227/.330/.375. A .460 SLG is a dream. What happened?
The basic answer is that Martin front loaded a lot of his performance this season so his recent struggles are actually a reversion to the mean. Russell hasn’t posted an SLG above .400 since 2007. While it certainly seemed like he’d rediscovered his power stroke when he got off to such a hot start this season, in retrospect it was wishful thinking to believe that the older, surgically repaired Martin would suddenly morph back into the .350+ wOBA player that he once was.
Digging deeper, however, there are some positive trends in his numbers. First of all, as anemic as it may seem, Martin’s .318 wOBA on the season is actually his best since 2008 and his 1.6 fWAR is fifth best in the AL. Russell may have posted sub .300 wOBA’s in June and July, but he’s been a respectable option behind the plate. Furthermore, his numbers suggest he may end strong.
Martin’s ISO is currently .148. His AVG is low, so that doesn’t translate into high numbers overall, but that is actually the most pop he’s shown with his bat since 2007, when his ISO was .176. In 2010 and 2009 Martin’s ISO was no higher than .085, so while he has struggled recently, he has actually hit with more power this season. The culprit behind his poor numbers is certainly bad play, but it may also be a bit of bad luck. Martin’s BABIP was .233 entering Sunday’s game. In 2010 and 2009 Martin’s BABIP was at least .284. Given that his walk and strike out rates are in line with his career norms, it is reasonable to expect Martin to get hot again sometime before the season ends.
The one red flag that is cause for some alarm moving forward, however, is Martin’s struggles against the fastball. Martin has been worth -9.6 runs against the fastball this season already. Typically, players are nearing the end of the line when they struggle against the heat so badly.
I like Russell Martin as a player, but I don’t know why. He started great, but has struggled mightily since May. Usually this kind of performance would turn me against a player, but there’s something about Martin I respect. I have no evidence to support it, but he seems to work hard and looks like he’s a solid defensive catcher. For these (completely unscientific) reasons I can’t help but give Martin the benefit of the doubt. For the time being I’m willing to bet that his BABIP will pick up, despite his inability to hit the fastball, and he’ll end the season on a high note.
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10 Responses to Following up on Russell Martin
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He seems to be a very well liked team guy and he’s certainly an excellent defender- he’s saved AJ at least 10 additional WPs throughout the course of the season. Sure, I’d like a little more offense from him, but overall, I’m very satisfied with him as the Yanks’ catcher.
I’m of the opinion that the Yankees overused Russell in the early part of the season. It seemed like when we signed him we were always hearing about how Torre ran him into the ground… and than Girardi ran him into the ground.
I think Girardi ran him into the ground thinking that Martin’d have Jesus Montero to hand the baton to.
I agree Joe ran him into the ground early (last guy on our roster and last catcher in MLB to get an off day) for a Montero-related reason. But I think he did it because they wanted to learn early if his surgical repairs were the real deal so they could put Montero on the market for arms to replace Colon and Garcia, who at the beginning of the season were highly suspect as season-long replacement players.
I can’t blame anyone for looking at the glass as half full with Russell because his work behind the plate has been very good. Pitchers have given him a lot of credit back there and that’s always great to hear.
With that said, his offense has been cringe worthy for a while. .254 SLG since the beginning of June is hard to look at. 4 XBHs in that time.
I can’t say I’m as confident in Russell’s turnaround as you are, Mike, but I can’t help but be as hopeful. Martin seems like a tough player, hard worker and as you noted, solid defensive catcher. Someone who is easy to get behind.
“I like Russell Martin as a player, but I don’t know why.” Why, because he makes you think of Yogi.
In April May, he was, as is said, “raking,” yet for the next two months he has hit the occasional ball hard, and has walked, stolen bases, spit cleverly out of the side of his mouth, and generally reminded me of what I guess Yogi Berra used to look like, and been a bouncing blocker wizard, a standout gun, with popup tracking, batter deke-ing, pitch framing, plate tagging sargeant master of the pitching staff.
We need a good catcher more than 50 damn points of OBP.
I really hesitated before writing my last paragraph in this post. I wasn’t sure how readers would react to my admission that I like Martin, but for non-statistical reasons. I’m relieved to see that I’m not alone in my assessment, that there is something likeable about the way Martin plays the game.
I also agree that Girardi may have over used him earlier in the season, but I’m not sure how much that is impacting his struggles now. The team has been resting him more, but I don’t recall any injury talk apart from his sore back.
I’m willing to fess up to being on the wrong side of optimism when it comes to Martin, but the walks and the power have been there while the BABIP has not. If he were also killing fastballs (or anything less than awful against them) I’d argue that he’ll bounce back with higher confidence. I still believe he’ll see a correction, but if he doesn’t I’d wager it is related to his inability to turn around on the hard stuff.
The problem with Martin isn’t his bat, it’s that he has to hit more cuz Cano, A-Rod, Jeter, and Posada are not hitting enough (Cano), at all (A-Rod, dl), or anywhere close to their past production (Jeter and Posada.) Add to that Teixiera and Swisher have been streaky, Nunez and Laird are essentially the left side of the infield when Jeter rests or is the DH, and Martin looks alot worse than he is. Can we really expect Martin to pick up the slack with the bat in the face of that and when he has to catch?
I’m concerned that pitchers have found a hole in Martin’s swing. I saw some data that he’s a good high ball hitter and terrible low ball hitter. If that’s the reason for the drop, we won’t see a bounce unless he is able to make an adjustment. My other optimism, since I also like him as a receiver, is that if the rest of the lineup picks up, he may see some better pitches.
I agree that there is a hole in his swing, but I wonder if it is for low pitches. I only say this because Fangraphs has him as a negative hitter against fastballs and a positive hitter against curves and changeups, both of which break low in the zone.