(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)
Note: This piece is by Mike Jaggers-Radolf
After Sunday’s complete game shutout, CC Sabathia has now pitched 145.2 innings for the Yankees this season. His ERA is a sterling 2.72 and his WHIP is just 1.16. Entering the game CC was worth 4.4 fWAR, third best in the majors, and had a 2.57 FIP, far and away the best of his excellent career. Bluntly put, Sabathia has put forward his best first half as a Yankee and is possibly putting together the best season of his career. How’s he done it?
On one level, the answer is not clear. For his career CC has struck out 7.57 batters per nine innings while giving out 2.78 free passes with a BABIP of .289. His numbers this season are not materially different. He’s striking out a touch more, at 7.70 entering Sunday’s game and walking fewer at 2.24, with a BABIP of .304. With the exception of the BABIP, his numbers have improved across the board, but the improvements are marginal. Improvements at the margins go a long way for a pitcher as skilled as Sabathia, but allowing one half fewer walks per game while striking out half an additional batter doesn’t tell the entire story.
Digging a little further, two things jump out. First, Sabathia is actually pitching deeper into games than he did in 2009 or 2010. In 2009 CC had an IP/GS of 6.2. In 2010 he improved that figure to an even 7 IP/GS. This season CC has improved again, to 7.1 IP/GS.
That may not seem like much, and in any given game it isn’t, but over the course of a full season those extra outs accumulate. For example, over the course of his twenty starts this year that extra one-third an inning per game has compiled to an extra 6.2 innings over what CC would have given the team over the same period of time in 2010. He’s effectively given the Yankees an extra start this season, and he’s currently on pace to pitch an astonishing 267.2 innings.
The other counting stat that jumps out from CC’s line is his home run rate. Four percent of all the fly balls CC has allowed this season have carried for homers. That is less than half the 8.6% rate he allowed last year and the 8.2% rate he’s allowed for his career. Any pitcher who can do such a good job at keeping the ball in the park is going to have prolonged success. The follow up question then becomes, can CC keep it up? The answer may be yes.
Coming to the Yankees CC was known for having a plus fastball that he used to set up a devastating slider. At the time it was absolutely true. In 2008 his fastball was actually a negative pitch, while his slider was worth an eye-popping 33.9 runs above average. Not mentioned was his almost as impressive changeup, which in 2008 had been worth 18.2 runs above average.
That changeup served CC well in 2009. For the season his fastball returned to being a plus pitch, worth 12.5 runs above average, while his slider fell to being worth only 0.6 runs above average. The pitch he relied upon to get batters out instead was his changeup, which was worth 23.3 runs above average.
In 2010, CC’s slider saw a return to form, while his changeup became less valuable. For the entire season, his fastball was worth 9.3 runs, his slider was worth 17.8 runs and his changeup was worth 8.8 runs above average. Any time a pitcher has three plus pitches working in a season he’s going to be successful.
In 2011 CC has four plus pitches working. According to Fangraphs his fastball is already worth 9.5 runs above average, eclipsing his full season total from 2010. In addition, his slider has been worth 7.1 runs and his changeup has been worth 5.8 runs. Neither pitch has been as devastating as it was in the past, but this is the first time since joining the Yankees that CC has all three of his main pitches working in such harmony. And, he’s added his curveball into the mix. CC seldom throws his curveball, showing it only 1.5% of the time this year, but it has been worth 1.39 runs above average for every 100 of them that he throws. That is the best the pitch has been since Sabathia has joined the Yankees, giving him a valuable weapon to keep batters off-balance. With all four of his pitches working this well, it is hard to imagine Sabathia giving up a lot of home runs anytime soon.
2008 was Sabathia’s best season in terms of fWAR. He accumulated 7.6 for the season. Entering Sunday’s game, Sabathia was on pace to be worth 7.8 fWAR this season and after his incredible performance in Sunday’s game that pace is now probably closer to 8 fWAR. CC hasn’t done any one thing to step up his game this way. Instead, he’s made a series of small improvements that in total have improved what was already one of the best pitchers in the game.
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14 Responses to Examining the beast: CC Sabathia’s first half
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The numbers have been surprisingly similar for CC for the Yanks thus far. In fact, before his streak of 4 dominating starts this season has pretty much gone like the last four. It will be interesting to see how long CC can keep this up.
I saw that as well, except he has put together this string of four dominant starts. As a result, he’s been stronger from the start this season. CC usually goes on this kind of a run around July and August. He’s started earlier this year and he’s working from a stronger base.
There is zero chance CC can keep this up. He hasn’t allowed a run in 23 innings. I am curious to see, however, where his season ending line winds up. My hunch, though, is that CC is in contract mode.
Let’s say C.C. opts out and signs elsewhere but not with Boston or Tampa Bay and Soriano doesn’t opt out (I’ll explain why I’m mentioning him shortly.)
The Yankees sign C.J. Wilson and K-Rod, trade for Francisco Liriano, and re-sign Ayala on the same day a week after Sabathia signs elsewhere. Soriano doesn’t opt out.
You have to get two #3 or better starters and a great reliever to make up for the loss of C.C. is how great I think C.C. is.
2012 Yankees
Rotation: Wilson/Burnett splitting up the lefties/Liriano/Hughes/Nova
Bullpen: Rivera/K-Rod/Soriano/Robertson/Ayala/Logan/Feliciano
Is the 2012 Yankees pitching better? I think so. While our ace would not be as good as Sabathia, we’d have a younger, more balanced rotation and hands down the best bullpen in baseball. One could argue we’d have as many as four closers if you think Robertson could be a closer on at least one team out there (I think he could be) and need only six relievers with K-Rod as the super-setup man (no need for Ayala) thus be able to carry a fifth man on the bench for the first time in many years.
I doubt this would happen as why would he complain, but maybe Soriano opts out after this year if the Yankees sign K-Rod for next and beyond cuz (Soriano) still wants to close. Good. I’d hope he would. The Yankees could sign someone else for far less money and hopefully they’d have Chamberlain back asap next year.
I expect CC will either opt out, or sell his option to opt out back to the Yankees for an extension. I also imagine the Yankees will give CC a blank check to retain him.
I would be stunned if the Yankees touched K-Rod with a ten foot pole, especially after Soriano back fired so tremendously.
The Rangers will pay an arm and a leg to retain C.J. Wilson. I’m not sure the Yankees would welcome the bidding war for him, and trading for Liriano is no small feat either.
Precisely because it is difficult to get any new pitching talent, I anticipate the Yankees to go to great lengths to retain CC. Of the pitchers mentioned, I could imagine Liriano in pinstripes, but I’m not holding my breath.
You think 7 years x $25M a year 2012-18 would do it for CC? He’s already due $92M over the next 4 years ($23M/yr. right?)
I’d sign K-Rod because what if Soriano opts out after this year or Mo retires and Soriano opts out after next year? If Mo retires, Soriano could opt out and hold up the Yankees then offer himself to the highest bidder if the Yankees pass esp. if Soriano has a stellar 2012. Who replaces Soriano if he opts out this year? Who is the closer in 2013 if Mo retires and Soriano signs elsewhere after 2012? Who would be available and close to being as good as Mo or 2010 Soriano? I like D-Rob, but I don’t think he’d be a Jedi yet.
Even if Mo re-signs for one final year, who’s the closer after 2013?
I say sign K-Rod now and if Mo retires after next year, pray Soriano opts out cuz he still wants to close. I cannot see him staying a Yankee if he posted a sub 2 ERA as a second setup man next year. He’d probably figure he’s still good enough to close and seek three or four years. If anything signing K-Rod could make Soriano opt out. The Yankees need someone to close after Mo and I just don’t see Soriano or D-Rob fitting the bill for 2013 or 2014. They have to have good enough 2012s to show they could close in 2013 if Mo retires. That audition is too risky to me.
Then again, K-Rod could be the closer 2013-???, Soriano could have a productive 2012-13 for the Yankees, and the 2013 Mo-less bullpen could be them, Robertson, Chamberlain, Logan, and two TBD (ideally Feliciano re-signed for a year after a good 2012 as one of them.)
I.E. The Yankees announce Wilson, K-Rod, Liriano, and Ayala are Yankees the same day. They could trade for Liriano and re-sign Ayala before C.C. signs elsewhere then sign Wilson and K-Rod after C.C. signs elsewhere.
I don’t think C.C. will sign elsewhere when he opts out, and I say “when he opts out” cuz I can’t see him declining to opt out. The Players’ Union would be furious at him if he didn’t and I don’t think he’d want to anger them.
My guess is C.C. opts out as a formality and signs a new seven-year deal (you wanna say eight, fine) or the Yankees just extend his current contract for three years and tack on some more money to his next four years. They could say “How ’bout $2M extra a year for 2012-15 then $25M per 2016-18 for $25M a year 2012-18?” and I think he’d go for it. That’s be 7 years at $25M per, a record contract and everyone is happy: C.C., the Yankees, and the Players’ Union. The PU would be thrilled cuz that’d be a new record contract for a pitcher by money. There’d be no opt out and all the speculation it’d bring. C.C. would get at least two years from someone if not the Yankees after 2015, so why not give him three? Four more years like his 2009, 2010, and I think 2011 when all is said and done this year with another Cy Young Award or two and he could be a Hall Of Fame bound by 2016.
I really believe it is wishful thinking to have Wilson or Liriano in pinstripes. Of the two, Liriano makes the most sense, but even that seems unlikely. The pitching market is thin.
CC will opt out or get an extension. However, I don’t see him going anywhere, unless he secretly wants off the Yankees and every indication is that he likes it in New York. If I were Brian Cashman, come September, if CC is still as dominant as ever, I would try to keep him from using the option and offer him an extension instead. Why risk letting him hit the open market?
I promise there is no way, no way at all, no conceivable, plausible way, that K-Rod winds up a Yankee. Not only is no one mentioning him, but he would be an expensive, high maintenance option, precisely the kind of pitcher the team has been looking to avoid. Maybe the owner’s box steps in and forces this, but after the Soriano disaster I struggle to see it happening.
Oh I don’t want Wilson in pinstripes if CC stays and I think CC will stay, but if CC left, the Yankees will need someone to fill the void. I don’t want Liriano in pinstripes either if the cost is too high. I’d be cool with Sabathia/Burnett/Hughes/Nova/Colon re-signed for a year to start 2012 and see how the latter three in that rotation do and if the Yankees need to get someone, they’ll cross that bridge when they get to it like most years. It might be pushing it with Colon but maybe the old guy is reborn. If you won’t spend (Wilson) or trade (Liriano) to bolster the rotation, you have to go young (Nova) and cheap (Colon), CC a Yankee or not.
I 100% agree with you that Cashman should offer CC an extension in September, but what if Cashman is hardline about his no extensions policy? I don’t think it’d anger CC, but it would make the process alot more complicated than it should be. What if it did anger CC?
I think 7 years x $25M per 2012-18 would do it. ‘Still a record contract money-wise. $25M per year would be a record annual salary for a pitcher, no?
Why let Soriano stop you from acquiring perhaps the next Yankees closer? I think K-Rod’s attitude if he indeed has one would change for the better if he donned the pinstripes.
Since Mo is no longer under contract and Soriano could opt out after next year, say both are gone after next year. Who closes 2013 on? Who has had closing experience in NY besides K-Rod? Get out of here with D-Rob and/or Joba. As much as I like both, I am not entrusting the fate of the 2013 Yankees to either or both of them. And neither has shown he’s as dominant as 1996 Mo. Joba in 2007. 2007.
I don’t want a small-market or mid-market dude who has never closed or pitched in a pivotal postseason game.
Soriano is never going to opt out of his deal. He won’t get more money than he is making right now, and even if he hates setting up no one gives up that kind of cash.
I really see no reason at all to sign K-rod. It simply makes no sense, especially since Robertson is a very similar high walk, high K rate pitcher. Who is also much cheaper, and much younger.
I can’t imagine K-Rod accepting a set-up role. And if for some strange reason he did, I bet Boras would make the trade contingent of his $17.5M salary for 2012 being accepted even without him reaching the number of games finished. That salary makes the Soriano contract almost seen reasonable.
K-Rod would set up and shut up if he was traded to the Yankees.
If he was released thus bought out for $3.5M, he could showcase himself with whoever for peanuts for the rest of this year.
The Yankees will have $20.85M cleared after this year to give to K-Rod by letting go of Posada ($13.1M cleared), Igawa ($4M), and Marte ($3.75M after a $250K buyout), the latter two pitchers who haven’t and won’t throw a single pitch for the 2011 Yankees.
If the Mets traded or bought out K-Rod, the Yankees should offer K-Rod 4 years and $64M like this: $15.4M for 2012 (so he makes $100K less than Mo who I believe is due $15.5M next year out of respect to Mo), $16M a year 2013-15 (a record annual salary for a closer, no?) I think he’d be down to set up for Mo for a year cuz he idolizes Mo and wants to win again, something he will never do with the Mets.
If the Yankees got K-Rod to take $15.4M for 2012, that’s $5.45M left over from letting go of Posada, Igawa, and Marte.
Bottom line is you cannot assume Mo will want to keep playing after next year or go into 2013 closer-less or with Soriano as the closer, and there is no guarantee whatsoever Mo and/or Sori will be Yankees in 2013. K-Rod is better than Sori now and Mo long-term. K-Rod is the safe bet and btw, what if Mo finally gets hurt and is out for awhile next year? You really trust Sori or D-Rob? I don’t. As much as I like D-Rob, he is not closer material yet.
If Mo says he’s retiring after next year, Soriano will hold up the Yankees whether Mo says he’s done before or after 2012 is up. I don’t see Sori being cool with what he agreed to before 2011. That dude will see $$$ signs. He’d probably want a three or four year deal after 2012.
History has shown us that longterm, big money deals for relief pitchers is an awful idea, and the last one I would give 4 years 64 million to is Rodriguez. He’s an OK closer, but he is worth no where near that kind of money. I don’t believe Robertson is the next Yankee closer, but I would gladly go with him way before K-rod. His stuff has decreased steadily over the last few years, and he is certainly not a great clubhouse guy.
Btw what if Soriano blows next year like he’s blown this year and he wants to stay after next year? He’s the closer for 2013 if Mo hangs up the spikes after next year? No way. That can’t/shouldn’t happen.
Keep dreaming if you think the heir to Mo will be anything like Mo in demeanor and success rate. He won’t. He will most likely be a Type-A guy like K-Rod or Paplebon when he was the closer for Boston.
If not K-Rod, the next Yankees closer has to be a guy with at least big-market experience. Closing games for Arizona, Cleveland, or San Diego is one thing, closing games for the Yankees is another animal.
Coming off a career year no one but us gave Soriano big money. What would make you believe he will get the same, or better money coming off of worse seasons, 2-3 years older? The Yankees would welcome him to opt out at any time and try to hold them over a barrell. They would laugh and be glad they got out from underneath him.