Max Marchi of THT posted a fantastic bit of research this week that could go a long way towards quantifying one of the more difficult to measure elements of catcher defense:
According to this analysis the top catchers can win a ballgame per season (even playing fewer than 100 games) only with the skill of framing pitches.
If you think that’s a lot, I’m with you.
Anyway, let’s look at that from a different perspective. Please re-read the last sentence of the previous section. The fact that umpires and catchers have a similar range of variation implies that playing with a receiver who is good at framing pitches is the equivalent of having a pitcher friendly umpire calling the game. Now, suppose you are allowed to have every game called by an average umpire when your team is at the plate and by the most pitcher-riendly umpire when your team is pitching. Does an extra win per season seem an acceptable effect of having such an advantage?
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According to the analysis presented here, the best catchers at framing pitches can add something like one or two wins per season, which is the equivalent of trading Alex Rodriguez‘s 2010 bat (.270/.341/.506, 30 HR, 125 RBI, 19 runs above replacement) with Alex Rios’ lumber in the same year (.284/.334/.457, 11 HR, 45 RBI, nine runs above replacement).
The number could even be a conservative estimate. In fact, as soon as a pitcher realizes his catcher gives him an edge on borderline pitches, he should immediately begin to exploit the advantage.
If the magnitude of the framing effect measured in this study is confirmed, major league teams should not neglect this factor when they go hunting for a catcher in the market, especially those with pitching staffs that make their living on the black.
Marchi includes a spreadsheet that shows Russell Martin to be one of the best catchers in baseball at framing pitches, while Frankie Cervelli comes in at above average and Jorge Posada sits at about the average line.
I really do not have a ton to add here, but I will note that the sizable nature of the effect illustrates that any analysis of catcher defense at this point is, at best, a rough estimate. If something such as framing pitches can create a value gap of 2-3 wins between two catchers, how can we really evaluate relative value without measuring every element that goes into the catching position? The best we can do is measure those skills that are more easily quantifiable and roughly estimate the rest based on scouting reports, while waiting for people like Marchi to help read the tea leaves that the data provides us in the murkier areas.
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6 Responses to On Framing Pitches
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TIQ IQ
Max has been plugging away at this topic for a while, and as you said it’s still a very difficult topic to nail down definitively. Kudos to Don Quixote for trying again and again.
It’s really tough because you have to normalize for the umpire and the pitcher before you can get anywhere near the catcher. Then, if your conclusions are within the margin of error, they’re useless.
Wow. a) sorry I just have a hard time believing it coul end up being a 3 war spread.
B) if thats the case a c who frames well and can hit would b the most valuable player in tje game perenially.
C) thats just a massive effect. It doesnt “feel” right intuitively. Yes thats what sabr is for but intuition in science is what makes us trust or keep looking.
Finally, d) posada was always lambasted by scouts as an awful receiver who framed poorly and my eyes confirmed this. Thus any analysis where jorge is avg is suspect.
With most fielding metrics (none of which I trust completely) it takes years to stabilize so this isnt useful to us with montero for years.
Very very very interesting and important though
I never saw Jorge as having poor framing skills. It was his pitch blocking that always stood out, to me.
As for your overall point, while I agree that the effect seems huge, it is important to note that the catcher “catches” on every single play in a baseball game. 125+ opportunities to frame in a game. When I thought about it like that, it came off as more plausible, although I am still wary of giving the results here too much weight. I do think it is an area of research to keep a close eye on.
I never loved his technique or game calling back there either, but those things don’t lend themselves to statistical analysis. He played the position with an infielder’s instincts, which lends itself to all sorts of problems.
I loved it last year, Yanks playing the Blue Jays in Toronto, when the umpire was looking down after the pitch and caught Buck yanking it back to the zone. He got major league pissed off, and I’ll bet the Jays didn’t get another close call all night. Don’t forget to factor that in.
[...] few weeks ago, I highlighted a fascinating bit of ongoing research from Max Marchi of THT regarding framing pitches. Today, he [...]