Ivan Nova‘s last start was the very definition of “bending without breaking” as he put a lot of runners on base, but only three crossed the plate. While the results haven’t been terrible–a 4.50 ERA/4.29 FIP/4.64 xFIP–watching Nova’s starts can be infuriating. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, he doesn’t miss any bats, and it seems like he gives up hits on two strikes constantly (yeah that’s probably a bit of confirmation bias, but Nova does have a .568 OPS against when he gets two strikes on the batter, compared to a league OPS against of .523).
During and after his start on Friday night, I couldn’t help but think about Nova’s future. The one part of me thinks that Nova doesn’t have much of a future in the rotation. The lack of strikeouts, the lack of a true out-pitch, the inability to get through a lineup multiple times…all those things don’t bode well for Nova’s presence in the starting rotation. But, this will be Nova’s first full season as a starter in a Major League rotation. He should certainly be afforded time to develop and time to adjust.
What makes him suited to be a starter? Well, he has shown the physical ability to throw 100 itches. He may not be able to do it in an incredibly efficient manner all the time, but he can do it. He also has an absolutely fantastic groundball rate and has, predictably, done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Those two things would also bode well for him as a reliever, as would his strong arm. We can also infer that he would see an uptick in his velocity if he was pitching in short spurts. A transfer to the bullpen could also clear up that unfortunate “times-through-the-lineup” split that Nova has.
I don’t love the idea of Nova starting because of the things I mentioned before and because I don’t think he has a ton of upside. But, he has the ability to start. He has the ability to pitch meaningful innings for the Yankees and as of now, he hasn’t pitch poorly enough that he should be permanently removed from the rotation…yet. If we get to the same point next year and there’s no improvement, then I think it will be time to reconsider.
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5 Responses to Contemplating Nova
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TIQ IQ
I personally think Nova is perfect for the Al Aceves/Mendoza wingman role, while also having a real long man. (Also, perfect for this role, Al Aceves, who someone made a huge mistake on) That properly enables 5 spots in the pen for a closer, three true short relievers and a LOOGY.
Additionally, this would enable the Yankees to “free” Noesi to return to starting in AAA. Of course, this is contingent on a healthy Phil Hughes and possibly even another starter (trade)if the “let’s just hold our breath and pretend this is normal crowd” falters.
I said it once and I’ll say it again:
Ivan Nova is a fifth starter this year – nothing more, nothing less.
He has the talent to graduate to #4 status next year.
A 4.50 ERA or a run every 2 IP means a potential by definition “quality start” from him every game (6 IP 3 ER.)
It’s not impossible that he just hasn’t had time to develop a “feel” for pitching (reading hitter’s swings?). It’s also possible that his mind wanders a bit and between the two things mentioned above he just needs time to build success into confidence. I’ts also possible that his pitching IQ isn’t there, and that he’ll a good long man or middle reliever. There are plenty of guys with his ability to that develop into stars, and others that wind up as trivia questions. Over-all you don’t give up on a guy that hit 95-96 on occasion w/ a nasty curve-ball. Amazing how smart pitching coaches get when they are allowed to work with a pitcher for a few years v. months. If this was playing out in St. Louis or Atlanta it would be a non-issue. New York, you Suck, or else you are immortalized as Lefty Ford Guidry, and havea life-sized carving made of Swarovski Crystal that is displayed for the Armani Crowed. Let’s show a little more patience, yes?
Striking out fewer than 5 per nine would (and should) be an issue no matter where you pitch. I’d be less concerned about the lack of strikeouts if he had a history of strikeouts in the minors–but he doesn’t–or if he really kept the walks down, which he doesn’t.
Nova is a harder throwing swing-man like Aceves or Ramiro Mendoza. He can pitch MR and spot start. I’m sure there isnsome value in that, but not a ton.