Segedin playing for Old Tappan in 2007
Its still very early in the minor league season, but I think its time to officially declare some good news. Rob Segedin, the Yankees 3rd round draft pick in last year’s draft, is off to a great start. He’s hitting .303/.393/.485 with a reasonable .333 BABIP, a BB% of 12% and a K% of 17%.
Segedin has always been a hard player to evaluate. He was drafted as a 21 year-old draft-eligible sophomore, due to missing the entire 2009 season with an injury. Playing in a big program in Tulane, Segedin hit .434/.518/.788 with 14 home runs in 55 games in 2010 in a fairly tough conference that includes Rice University. He wasn’t drafted high – he even signed close to slot despite being eligible as a sophomore – due to both injury concerns and some bad scouting reports. Scouts said that Segedin wouldn’t hit for power, and owed a lot of his success to a metal bat.
Segedin’s strong start is probably a function of two things. First, he continued his strong fundamentals from college. He’s got great strikeout and walk rates, which we can probably use to infer that he has shown good pitch selection at the plate. He hasn’t gone completely powerless – .182 ISO – either, although he’s not belting extra base hits like Heathcott is. He’ll always be more valuable as an on-base guy than a power guy. Second, he’s already got a lot of experience at a semi-high level in college baseball. He didn’t play in a tough enough conference to warrant going straight to High-A (and only for two seasons), but Segedin is 22 years old in a league comprised of a lot of 19-21 year olds. Its not a huge advantage in competitive experience, but its worth noting.
At this point in the season, we should be looking for prospects that have helium – guys who are proving they are better than previously appraised at. At this point, Segedin is one of those guys. He’s hitting very well with a wooden bat, without a ton of luck, and in his first professional full-season league. He was originally ranked the Yankees 23rd overall prospect in the spring, and will likely jump a few spots in June. My original instinct was to rank him around 15th or so, which would put him Laird and Adams and Stoneburner. He’s a prospect who plays a decently challenging position (3rd base), has offensive upside, and is performing well in his debut. Depending on how you define it, you might want to start calling him a darkhorse.
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3 Responses to Great Early Returns From Rob Segedin
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TIQ IQ
Question for anyone. Does anyone see either Segedin or Laird as possible replacements for A-Rod? The way it looks to me A-Rod will probably be the Yankees primary DH for the last 3 years of his contract (2015 through 2107). I know it’s a long way to look into the future but in 3 plus years does anyone see either one of these 2 as a possible replacement or as trade bait when the time comes?
I’m interested in anyone’s thoughts.
The short version: No.
The long version: I don’t think Laird has any long-term future with the Yankees and I’m frankly surprised that he’s even still with the organization. I thought for sure they would’ve traded him after last season. As for Segedin, there’s a lot to be excited about, but it’s just too early to tell. Polished college bats do move fast, though.
I think the problem is that the Yankees, thanks to the crazy contract, aren’t really in a position to replace Arod any time soon. They could theoretically move him to 1b or DH or whatever, but they have Teixeira and Montero around too, so that option becomes harder. Segedin’s ETA is in the mid 2013-2014 range, so that doesn’t put him in the time frame to replace him.
Segedin has taken some time in LF, so that’s an option. He and Laird are very different types of hitters, but probably project around the same value in the best case. Laird’s more of a Slg% guy and Segedin a BB% guy. Both are comparable (average or so) defensive 3rd basemen.