Due to a lack of time and also the shortened two-game set, this will be a bit of an abbreviated Series Preview.
As you know, the second-place Yankees, losers of five straight, are in Tampa tonight to face the lightning-hot first-place Rays, who have the best record in the Majors since stumbling to an 0-6 start. Any Yankee fans concerned about their team’s current plight would do well to talk to a Tampa or Boston fan and see how they felt losing the first six games of their seasons. As much as a losing streak of any kind sucks, these types of things happen in a 162-game baseball season.
Of course, the Yankees haven’t been playing a particularly inspiring brand of baseball for over two weeks now, and it’s hard to feel all that confident that this team — despite still leading the AL in wOBA — is going to snap out of its funk against David Price. The offense has gone dormant during their 5-9 May performance, averaging a measly four runs per game (h/t Joe P. at RAB), and old friend RISPFail has been in full effect during this stretch of futility, with the Yankees putting man after man on base and having a nightmarish time of getting them home. The Yankees have actually performed worse than normal with RISP (92 tOPS+) but believe it or not are still performing at better than league average with RISP (107 sOPS+). Yeah, I know, I don’t know how that’s possible, either.
As much as we joke about the Yankees’ inability to plate all of these hitters, it’s exceptionally frustrating, and also not an isolated incident. In fact, a lack of timely hitting with runners in scoring position, has, believe it or not, been something of a hallmark of the Kevin Long era, who has been the team’s hitting coach since 2007. To wit:
| Yankees with RISP | tOPS+ | sOPS+ |
| 2011 (to date) | 92 | 107 |
| 2010 | 100 | 109 |
| 2009 | 93 | 111 |
| 2008 | 95 | 95 |
| 2007 | 101 | 112 |
| 2006 | 110 | 121 |
By no means am I trying to insinuate that Kevin Long has been anything but a huge asset to the team as hitting coach — you can’t accidentally boast the best offense in the American League for three out of the last four full seasons — but I do wonder if there’s something in his tutelage that makes his students less effective when situational hitting comes into play. As you can see, thus far in 2011, as well as in 2009 and 2008 (they were exactly league average last season) the Yankees have performed slightly worse with RISP than usual. Although considering they’ve been above league average every season except 2008, this is probably a non-starter.
Anyway, on offense, the Rays are being propelled by superhuman campaigns from Ben Zobrist (.409 wOBA) and certified Yankee-killer Matt Joyce (.450). Evan Longoria is back and raking, and Casey Kotchman is hitting surprisingly well too (.380 wOBA over the last two weeks). The rest of the offense hasn’t really been there save B.J. Upton, but if those five keep their production up it may not even matter if they have four black-hole lineup slots if the Rays keep pitching the way they’ve been (3.13 team ERA over the last 30 days, 2nd in the AL; 3.28 season FIP at home).
For their troubles, the Yankees get David Price (3.12 ERA/2.89 FIP/3.24 xFIP) who continues his assault on American league hitters, and will send A.J. Burnett (3.38 ERA/4.18 FIP/3.98 xFIP) to the hill to oppose the southpaw. Price has historically been hell on the Yankees, and he is probably the last pitcher the team would like to see as it tries to snap its five-game losing streak. Still, as great as Price is, the Yankees are going to have to show that they can occasionally beat pitchers of his caliber.
In Tuesday’s mismatch the Yanks send Ivan Nova (4.70 ERA/4.48 FIP/4.74 xFIP) to the mound against the rejuvenated James Shields (2.08 ERA/3.07 FIP/3.10 xFIP). As you can see, Shields has been utterly dominant, and if the Yankees can’t get to Price the team may be staring at a seven-game losing streak when it wakes up on Wednesday morning.
On the flip side, all the Yankees need to do is win both of these games to get back into a tie for first place. Call me crazy, but I think they can do it. There’s no way this team is as bad as its played during the past week, and if they were ever due to break out, it may as well be now.
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11 Responses to Game Thread and Series Preview | Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays I: Just win one
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TIQ IQ
No score after 1. Let’s offer the Rays a draw.
Wow, time to drop A-Rod down in the order. He looks like a guy who’s turning 36 on July 27.
Hey, it’s only fair I say that since everyone said that about Jeter last year.
I hate to say it but I must: 2011 is A-Rod’s 2010 Jeter year and 2012 will only be worse.
Trade him and cash to Seattle in the offseason before it’s too late.
horrrrah for joe the genius girardi..!!!!!!!!!joe will show how to capture last place…..that boy great move taking him out now..boy can this guy manage..this game is not worth watching any longer…
Then turn it off. How is it Girardi’s fault that Burnett had a terrible inning? What should Girardi have done? Take Burnett out and replace him with Luis Ayala? Yeah, that’s a winning strategy.
matt, seems like we both do not want to lose and root hard for the yanks..if you think ayala is not ready to pitch in the majors or the rest of the pen is not available.. who’s fault is it” everyone in that pen should be able to get guys out..fuld a five foot nothing weighing 38lbs crushed a ball..everyone in the inning hit the ball hard.. are you saying don’t matter let aj pitch..nobody is ready to get an out.. nobody..it is all on joe..we lived with the aj we seen tonight all last year.. i feel terrible for us yankee fans..this is a bad time for us..they don’t hit.throw , catch, run.bunt..and manage.you must have know what was going to happen that inning..it was clear he was imploding.. you know my feeling on joe from the last year..early in the year were up four runs he brings in sori..blows the game..now in a tight game he brings in nobody ..that is one example..
no matt leaving him in was..
remember the playoffs vs texas..same thing..that fat catcher crushed him ..a whole bullpen ready..same old joe..again i feel bad for us yankee fans..if you look at our loses this year..most were give aways..
I think I would have gone to the bullpen before, not after, Upton’s at bat. Already two out in the 6th, you’re only one out away from where the bullpen is supposed to be ready to pick it up anyway. Burnett’s pitch count was low, and he’d pitched a good game, but he was getting pounded that inning, and he has a marked tendency to collapse all at once in games. The Yankees really need a win at this point, they’re having trouble scoring runs, and that two-run lead is precious. With the way things are going, this is a game you should manage to win.
I was following on Twitter, and despite everybody being on edge, not a single person advocated pulling Burnett before the Upton at-bat.
ask my wife
Really? No one? I’m flabbergasted.
Why do you think leaving Burnett in there was the right move? Not based on what happened, but the situation as it was before Upton hit.