The Yankees have been clubbing a bunch of home runs and scoring a bunch of runs, but that doesn’t mean the offense has been without fault. As Larry’s pointed out a few times on Twitter, the offense isn’t working its way on base as frequently as we’re used to. And, as we’ve seen, most of the Yankee runs are coming from the home run. Granted, that will change as things even out and as the Yankees’ crazy low .242 BABIP corrects itself. Long term, I’m not worried about the offense.
Breaking it down on an individual level, there are concerns. Mark Teixeira has suddenly realized it’s April and his bat has quieted down after a torrid start, and the same goes for Jorge Posada. Derek Jeter, meanwhile, hasn’t quite gotten off the ground yet. With Tex, we’re less inclined to worry because we’ve been through this before and he’s young enough that we’ll call it a slump, not decline.
With Jeter and Posada, though, we’ve got to worry a bit. It’s only been nine games, so we can’t freak out. We can’t panic. We can’t make too much out of too little. This is not to say that there isn’t legitimate concern about each player. They’ve both played a whole lot in their careers and taken a lot of abuse. It is definitely possible that they’re finally in that decline phase.
Posada’s striking out over 30% of the time right now and Jeter has gotten the ball only 7 times (3 FB, 3 LD, 1 IFB) on balls he’s made contact on. Posada’s not exactly Joe DiMaggio up there in terms of not whiffing, but he’s only struck out over 25% twice in full seasons in his career. He does back it up with power, which is to be expected. As of right now, though, Jorge’s in a big slump and he’s not drawing many walks either (6.5%). Again, though, we’ve got to remember how early it is and how patient Jorge’s been in his career. He’s NEVER failed to reach a double digit walk rate at any time in his career. Give it another month and we’ll see where jorge’s numbers are.If they haven’t started to normalize, then he may be in trouble.
As for that last sentence, the same could go for Derek Jeter. He may look a bit lost at the plate right now (how late was he on Josh Beckett‘s fastballs on Sunday night?) and his range may look as bad as ever, but we’re still just nine games into the 2011 season. Let’s give Jeter a month, too, and see where he is.
Since I like offering predictions, I’ll give one. Of the two, I think Posada is the more likely to bounce back after the slow start. Is that an unfounded hunch? More or less. Posada is a better candidate for rebounding because his “old player” skills are more developed than Jeter’s are. Derek may walk his fair share and he’s not Brett Gardner up there in terms of power, but he has neither the on base skills nor the power of Jorge Posada. He’s always been a bit more batting average reliant and that might be his undoing. I’m not backing off what I said all off season: Derek Jeter will have a better season in 2011 than he did in 2010. Am I a little less confident in that statement? Sure, how could I not be? Jeter’s a mid-to-late-thirties shortstop who’s got a ton of mileage on him. He SHOULD be breaking down at this point. But, Jeter’s still been a pretty special talent with the bat and he can rebound.
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8 Responses to Trying to relax on Jeter and Posada
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TIQ IQ
Great stuff. SG at RLYW actually took a look at xBABIP for the Yanks thus far, and Jorge has been killed by bad luck.
I tend to agree with you on Posada, but with Jeter it’s a lot more then 9 games with which to be concerned. His overall numbers last year were largely propped up by a good April/May in what was the worst season of his career. If you take his numbers from 6/1/10 through today, Jeter in 473 AB, has hit 5HR, 20 2B, 2 3B w/a whooping .251 AVG and .330 OBP. Which shows what we’ve grown accustomed to…fewer and fewer balls hit solidy (also decreased LD% and increased GB%). It’s almost to the point where we applaud line drive outs or deep fly ball outs as signs of progress. I still don’t understand why the Yankees offered him $17M per for 3 years (but I guess that’s a different conversation for a different day).
If Derek Jeter finishes below .280 BA and .350 OBP this season, he should retire after this season thus forfeit the remaining two years on his contract, or does he want to risk having a third straight shit year in 2012 and four subpar seasons out of the last five? His 2008 was better than his 2010 and could be better than his 2011, but it was his first down year, hence the four subpar seasons out of five.
The Yankees should’ve never given Jeter a three-year contract. I’d have told him a year and $22M, a mil more than what he made last year, take it or leave it. Was he really collecting his 3,000th hit elsewhere? C’mon. He could’ve been the first batter the Yankees faced in 2011 if he signed with the Tigers and was the Tigers Opening Day leadoff hitter. The Yankees paid him handsomely 1996-2000 and gave him a decade-long $189M contract, and last I checked $189M 2001-10 + $22M for 2011 = $211M across 11 years, so they owe/d him nothing.
‘Say he finished 2011 with .273 BA and .335 OBP and announced his retirement at season’s end whenever it ends. He would have played his entire career with one team like Bernie Williams. He’s the Yankees’ all-time hits leader and lone 3,000 hit club member. He’s hands down the greatest Yankee after 1970 and a top 10 Yankee. He will be a first-ballot Hall Of Famer. His number will be retired with a plaque in Monument Park. He’d be 37. His future would be limitless. No one could ever say Jeter hung on too long or ended at any other position but the one he played his entire Yankee career with a handful DH starts thrown in. No Jeter ending at 3B, LF, or DH. In fact, Jeter strikes me as a kind of guy who would get along very nicely with life after baseball, and who says he can’t “get back in the game” in some way?
Do you really want to see him finish with the above numbers in 2011 then .281 and .348 (slight improvements) in 2013? I don’t. It would be very difficult to watch. With 1990-95 Mattingly, you knew it was because of injuries including the one he had in’87 which caught up to him a few years later. With Jeter it’d be worse because he’s 100% healthy.
‘Say Jeter signed elsewhere after last year. If you decided not to root for the Yankees anymore because he’s gone, you’re not, never were, and never will be a Yankees fan. You are, were, and always will be a Derek Jeter Fanboy. Go root for whatever team he’s on or the Red Sox, and don’t come crawling back to root for the Yankees if they start another dynasty, bitch.
And here I thought I was the only one who didn’t want Jeter back.
While the Yankees are clearly going to end up regretting this deal, barring just an absurdly horrendous season it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Derek does the noble thing and retires.
Which means that, frustrating as it may be to watch, rather than gripe about it’s probably more productive to focus our energies on hoping he can get his act together and at least partially recover some of his old form.
I’ve been harder on Jeter than most, and while the early returns look bad, it’s still only 9 games. If you want to call it a season and nine games, that’s your prerogative, but there’s still time for Jeter to prove all of his naysayers wrong.
he will never leave all that money..retire won’t happen..
Gentlemen, those of you that expect Jeter’s numbers to improve this year etc…are sticking your head in the sand. In all of baseball over the last 50 to 60 years how many SS have their been whose numbers have actually improved after turning 35 or 36 let alone 37 (which Jeter will be in a couple of months) may be a couple out of many hundreds. I have been a Yankee fan since the early 50′s I have seen to many Yankee greats stay past their time. From Yogi to Mantle to even Bernie Williams. Jeter’s time is fast approaching he can’t out run or out hit the calendar. I too am surprised the Yankees gave him the kind of contract they did both in years and money. I blame both parties for that. It will soon be time if it isn’t already for the Yankees to give someone else a shot at SS. Hopefully Jeter realizes this and graciously rides off into the sunset after this season. And enjoys his accomplishments, retirement and “old timers” games. That’s just my opinion.
I think the Jeter contract was at least partially inflated by the impression the Steinbrenners were trying to make on Cliff Lee — who was still being wooed at that point — and any other potential future free agents. Given the choice, I’m glad we overpaid Derek and not Lee; mainly, because our offer to Lee had all the earmarks of a classic bust for the Yankees, but also because I don’t see who we have to replace DJ. Seriously, who do we have down on the farm or in the coming FA pool to take his place? Nunez?
On a different topic, does anybody know if we are in danger of losing home games with the two rainouts thus far, or are they required to play them at the Stadium at some point, or what?
The most alarming thing about Jeter’s bad start this year, other than the obvious things that everyone has already mentioned, is that Jeter has already given up on the shorter stride. That was a HUGE mistake on his part.
It’s clear from his hitting last year and the first nine games of this year that Jeter can no longer catch up with a really good fastball or hard slider — and all the pitchers know it now; it’s obvious from how they’re pitching him.
Jeter’s only hope of warding off old-man-time for a season or two was to shorten his swing, but he stupidly ended that experiment before he really gave it a chance to take hold and truly become a part of his game.
I’m almost 56 and I’ve seen the declining years of several Yankee greats and other all-time greats, and Jeter’s plate appearances look even worse than most of those players’ appearances in their last days.
If Jeter doesn’t go back to some form of the shortened swing he was using in spring training, I’m afraid he’s headed for a .250 BA or worse with a slugging percentage that’s too embarrassing to print.
Please, Derek, no Yankee fan wants to see you go out this way. We all love you for the class you’ve shown and the way you’ve played for so many years now. Put your ego aside and work with Long on shortening your swing: it’s your only hope for warding off father time for a season or two more.
Every great player declines eventually, it even happened to The Babe. The only question is whether you’re going to do everything possible to forestall the inevitable — and, in your case, that means shortening your swing.
If you have any question about this, Derek, give Willie Mays a call and ask him how embarrassing his last season was. It was beyond embarrassing.