Russell Martin is off to one hell of a start. He’s slugging .600 and has a wOBA of .412. He’s knocked four balls into the people already, after hitting just five homers last year. He’s even chipped in two steals and has played solid defense behind the plate. This is awesome and a half. I’m totally loving Russell Martin and I’m going to enjoy this hot streak while it lasts. But, since I must, I’m going to play a bit of a wet blanket here.
How’s he done it? He definitely hasn’t done it by hitting fastballs. Martin is at 4.1 runs BELOW average on fastballs at this point in the season. However, he’s mauled non-four seamers. He’s in the red (barely, -0.1) on changeups, but he’s hitting everything else well. He’s 1.4 runs above average on sliders, 2.4 runs above averages on cutters, and 1.3 runs above average on curveballs. That’s what he’s hit, now let’s see what he’s done once he’s made contact.
Looking at his batted ball profile, there’s some normal stuff, but one big spike. Let’s start with the normal stuff. Martin’s line drive percentage is currently sitting at 22.2%. That’s above his career rate of 19.5%, but it’s no a huge spike and his LD% has been slowly climbing for the last few years. His Infield Fly Ball Percentage has also dropping consistently, and is down to 8.3%, his lowest since 7.5% in 2006. His groundball rate is down to 44.4%, while he’s hit the ball on the ground 49.8% of the time in his career. That swing isn’t wild, but it’s significant. Russell has also seen more fly balls so far in 2011–33.3%, 30.7% career. Here’s the huge spike: Martin’s HR/FB% is 33.3% right now. That is not going to last. At all. His career rate is 9.3 and he was below 7% in 2010 and 2009. We’re probably not going to see many more home runs from Russell for a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me if his total only doubled or increased a little more than double by season’s end.
It’s worth noting, though, that Martin’s BABIP, .281, is twenty points below his career mark of .301. Obviously, this is a result of the homers he’s hit. So, as those homers fall off, we will probably see some more singles from Russell. His walk rate right now is also super low at 2.1%. There’s no way in hell it stays that low. The power is certainly going to drop for Russell, but we’re going to see more singles and we’re going to see more walks.
Let’s enjoy this hot streak while it lasts, but let’s not think this version of Martin is here to stay and it’s okay to trade Jesus Montero now. Russell Martin is a formerly great player who is reclaiming a small bit of past glory. He probably won’t be his 2007 self again, but if he can just give the Yankees a .340 OBP and good defense, everyone’s going to be happy. He’s more than capable of doing that.
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3 Responses to Martin the Masher
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TIQ IQ
“He’s knocked four balls into the people already…” That phrase was cute the first three times I heard it on ESPN but, sadly, it’s already becoming a hackneyed cliche.
Excellent analysis, Matt. Very thoughtful, an interesting read and some provocative conclusions at the end there to boot. But I have to say that, at 28 years of age, it may be a bit premature to officially confer “formerly great” status upon him. Of course, the guys who get paid to decide such things throughout MLB would have probably sided with you a month or so ago. (Might the same conclusion more aptly be applied to Jorge and his mini-homer surge?) But I seriously doubt that would be the case today with Martin. My sporting guess is the ones who offered him no more that a ST invite and a minor league deal then — the Red Sox among them — would now happily pick up his contract, double the annual value and even extend another year or more if given the option.
I’m still not convinced Montero projects to be a blue-chip catcher, and I believe that a career DH’ing and playing first base for someone else may yet be in his future (as has been raised here in the past by some others). In any case, it’s still way early to entertain such thoughts, but I will say this right now:
Martin’s helping make our pitching staff and nearly every other aspect of our game look better in ways we all wish Jesus could, his clubhouse chemistry appears very good and his pedigree is everything we would wish young Jesus would attain in the future. For those reasons, I hope he continues impressing and that Montero, Romine and/or Cervelli and not Martin remain Brian C’s primary chips in the search for a blue-chip SP.
I honestly think it’s possible we may have caught real lightning in a bottle and not merely a retread flash in the pan in Martin.
I agree Martin could be returning to form as he is only 27. But i think that Montero should be called up to backup so we can see what he can do at the major league level