EJ’s breakdown of the Yankee offense so far shows us pretty much what we would have expected: the Yankees are crushing home runs at an exceptional pace, but otherwise have been fairly pedestrian as far as getting hits and drawing walks are concerned. EJ also singles out the Yankees’ home run per fly ball percentage of 20% as fairly high (which it is) and likely due for some regression. That statement made me curious about the types of home runs that the Yankees have been hitting, to see whether they have been getting a disproportionate number of lucky breaks that just got out, or whether they have been hitting legitimate home runs.
Fortunately, Hit Tracker has all the data I need, so I can look at each of the 27 homers the Yankee players have hit this season. Hit Tracker categorizes home runs into 4 categories:
Lucky: “A home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day.”
Just Enough: “Means the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.”
No doubt: “Means the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence. These are the really deep blasts.”
Plenty: Anything that doesn’t fit into the above categories.
Because I enjoy a nice excel table as much as the next guy, here’s the breakdown of the Yankee home runs hit so far:
All data courtesy of Hit Tracker
So what do the data show? From looking at the numbers, it might be reasonable to assume that Jorge Posada‘s home run surge might be most sustainable, based on the fact that 4 of his 5 homers were either plenty or no doubt. Robinson Cano also comes off looking pretty strong, with 2 no-doubters and 1 plenty to go along with a lucky/just enough (which I marked as lucky to be more conservative). Cano currently has the 8th-longest home run in the league, at 450 feet (Justin Upton has the 2 longest so far…beast). Curtis Granderson also has done very well, with 3 plenty and 1 no-doubter.
Mark Teixeira and Russell Martin both seem to be about in the middle, with a few lucky shots, but also some no-doubters. Alex Rodriguez does not come off looking quite as good, as only 1 of his 4 home runs qualified as plenty, while the other 3 were just enough. I suspect this may be a function of where A-Rod tends to hit the ball (often to the deeper part of the ballpark).
As a team, the Yankees only have 2 lucky home runs, and 8 that were just enough (good for 37 percent of their total). The remaining 63 percent were plenty or no doubt, which suggests that the Yankees’ home run binge cannot likely be attributed to luck/environmental factors such as wind and temperature. As such, the likelihood of the Yankees continuing to hit home runs is strong, and I wouldn’t be concerned about the state of their offense. While several of these guys (Martin and Posada especially) would not be expected to continue this pace due to track record or age, this remains a powerful offense. When Nick Swisher decides to get in on the home run action (which will happen sometime soon) he’ll be able to make up for the inevitable drop-off/slump/injury that is bound to occur.
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13 Responses to Have the Yankees been Getting Lucky with their Home Runs?
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TIQ IQ
There is a great new Yankees blog called Yankees Fans United: http://yankeesfansunite.webs.com
We have 9 writers – all with different writing styles. We have those who are good with the history of baseball, those who specialize in the analyzation of hitting, pitching, and defense, those who are offseason “demons” and deliver what you need to know- in a hurry, and more. I know this is a great, and I mean GREAT blog…but also give our new blog a chance. Hey, you can read both!
We’d be happy to plug a new blog, but would appreciate it if you would at least pretend to be commenting on the post instead of just self-promotion. Best of luck though, I’ll definitely give it a read.
Thanks Eric. I’m not trying to take away from your site- just to publicize a bit.
About the article now: That’s pretty cool data you gathered. Nick Swisher better start hitting for power soon, because as you said, it is unlikely that Jorge Posada and Martin will maintain this amount of home runs throughout the year.
No worries, it’s always good to see another new blog pop up. And honestly, in my experience, I have found that leaving insightful comments on other blogs is the best way to bring readers to yours.
Yeah, I did the same thing at RAB, and according to Site Stats, 17 people visited my site…before they deleted my comment.
So, some disagreement from me. A lucky HR/FB rate doesn’t necessarily mean luck in terms of how far a home run ball flies. The difference between a home run and a lazy fly ball can be caused by the difference of a few millimeters on the space of a bat, or a millisecond of swing time. Some of that is skill (And Yankee batters clearly have it), but some of that is luck.
But yeah, I do like your point that Yankee hitters are indeed hitting the ball well over the fence. That’s definitely reason that we can expect a better-than-average HR/FB rate, just not 20%.
A valid point. The HR/FB rate and the HR distance don’t necessarily go together, but they are 2 means of determining the luck/sustainability of the Yankees’ home run hitting.
The Yankees haven’t been getting lucky with their homeruns save for whatever ones hit the foul pole or just snuck over the wall, like all homeruns for all teams. Pitchers give up homeruns. That the Yankees have smacked a record 27 HR in their first 14 games tells me there are alot of bad pitchers out there and the Yankees have alot of good hitters including ones who can capitalize on bad pitching.
Girardi is a moron. His #8 slot hitting catcher leads off the inning with a double and he orders Gardner to bunt, Martin out between 2B and 3B. Swing you glorified #4 OF!!! What Gardner is starting to look like. He can’t even steal bases anymore (CS by Molina.) Pathetic 5th inning. Really pathetic game so far. Oh yeah, Jeter should’ve been charged with the error on the botched rundown, not Burnett, because Jeter wasn’t there to receive the ball cuz he’s old and slow. Who’d he pay off to win last year’s Gold Glove at SS? Hopefully the Yankees can pull this one out as Toronto hasn’t seized the game and did a pretty stupid thing themselves (ordering Escobar to swing on 3-0 with men on 1B and 2B and two outs for an innning-ending groundout.)
The Yanks are on pace for 300+ HR’s this year, so yeah.
How come no game thread? Travis Snider just broke a bat over his knee and I’ve got no place to say “Ow!
In regards to ARod, I would wager that most of those homeruns flagged as “Lucky” are to left/right center. At the same time, I have seen at least 2 and probably 3 hits to left/right center that were off the top of the wall, those of which on a warmer night would have been hrs.
That begs the questions, since we have a lucky category, what about an unlucky category?
The Yankees have to send Ivan Nova down to AAA Scranton because he is not fit to wear a New York Yankees uniform anymore. EVERY ball hit off him was hit hard. He is a gutless turd, too. Look at his eyes and body language. Scared. Of a team with one big / bonafide dangerous hitter. And don’t give me “it wasn’t a start”. He’s pitched out of the bullpen before and he was able to pitch or he wouldn’t have been in there. This guy is a big reason why the Yankees are 9-6 instead of 11-4. Hughes gets a pass because Cashman & Co. misread him in spring training, this guy is just the classic figured out kid. He’s no mystery anymore and he hasn’t made the adjustments. It’s laughable that people had Nova penned as the #4 starter when he is a total #6.
Sabathia/Burnett/Garcia/Colon/Anyone but Nova until Millwood is ready and Hughes returns.
Girardi is a real jackass. Where’s Lance Pendleton who threw three efficient innings earlier in the week? Why didn’t he give Robertson the seventh (five outs after an off-day) so Joba could be used for extra innings if need be? This guy just can’t manage close games!!!!!
The other real goat of this game besides Girardi was Gardner who couldn’t get a hit or draw a walk to blow the game open, steal a base, or lay a bunt down properly. He’s looking more and more like a one-year wonder. He’s also looking more and more like someone who needs to be spelled by Andruw Jones and a lefthanded-hitting outfielder the Yankees get via trade or down in the minors. Any lefthanded OFs out there? If the Yankees have to do a 1998-99 where LF is Gardner/Jones/someone else like 1998-99 was Curtis/Ledee/Spencer, so be it.
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